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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #4,621
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:12am Jan 3, 2007 11:12am
Quoting Tush
I think inevitable retracement. Go Long with SL at 1.9430 and wait.
Yup... Bear already worked to much today... Let the bull take over from here, right?

AND YES

Where's MoneyMaster when things get ugly here???
  • #4,622
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:14am Jan 3, 2007 11:14am
Here's some serious questions, these are not for answering per se, but to think about:

Have you(anyone) done more than 3 trades on cable today?
If so, why?
Do you think you got more (actual, not levered/multiplied by stake) pips out of it than a single short at the break of 1.9700 could have done? (initial BEOB)
Are you trading to trade or trading to win?
Are you paying for kicks or investing risk to win profit?
Did you place trades for a solid system based reason and after seeing a valid setup signal or out of a mix of hope, desperation and guesswork?
Did you exit for a solid reason or out of impatience? Do you have trade management and money management rules that are more sophisticated than - be honest with yourself - "let's see"?
And on the bottom line - did you come out net positive and net negative today?
Review, give this some thought and confront yourself...

Just wanted to throw this out there, maybe it gives some food for thought.
I for one sure am someone who needs to be constantly reminded of these sort of questions, and ask myself these over and over, best every day.

My best wishes,

SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #4,623
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:18am Jan 3, 2007 11:18am
fyi, i'm hanging long... don't think pros would put any more sells into this days move but the question is whether our s/l will be wiped before the nice retrace up. if i was more patient and not already underwater at the moment, think i'd be waiting to jump on any spikes down to 9450 or below.. still think we'll be 9600+ later on.. ~~
  • #4,624
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:19am Jan 3, 2007 11:19am
Quoting Tush
I think inevitable retracement. Go Long with SL at 1.9430 and wait.
agreed, is good day, Btw whats will going on at fomc meeting, someone have vision / thought ?
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #4,625
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:21am Jan 3, 2007 11:21am
Money Master is no doubt making pips and too busy... which is good for him...

I say not look for retrace just yet... as long as price hangs around right here at 1.9500, wait to see FOMC first...

goodthings knows about the retrace... his chart says 83 % chance of retrace to 23.6 fib on days with more than 200 pip move. And we all need to give goodthings more REP !!!
  • #4,626
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:23am Jan 3, 2007 11:23am
Quoting Tiki Trader
goodthings knows about the retrace... his chart says 83 % chance of retrace to 23.6 fib on days with more than 200 pip move
This figure is what I was relying on, when went long... I'm still relying on it
  • #4,627
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:24am Jan 3, 2007 11:24am
Quoting SeekingLight
Just wanted to throw this out there, maybe it gives some food for thought.
I for one sure am someone who needs to be constantly reminded of these sort of questions, and ask myself these over and over, best every day.
Thanks for the reminder! every day/trade sounds good.
  • #4,628
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:24am Jan 3, 2007 11:24am
Quoting notme32
agreed, is good day, Btw whats will going on at fomc meeting, someone have vision / thought ?
If it goes below 1.9430, then, well, I'll be damned.

:-)
  • #4,629
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:25am Jan 3, 2007 11:25am
New TV show in U.S. remids me of forex trading--- "One against the mob"
  • #4,630
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:31am Jan 3, 2007 11:31am
Quoting Tiki Trader

goodthings knows about the retrace... his chart says 83 % chance of retrace to 23.6 fib on days with more than 200 pip move. And we all need to give goodthings more REP !!!
that would put retrace at 9540+ atm
Ghost Swoopen in for my pips while no one is lookin !!
  • #4,631
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:40am Jan 3, 2007 11:40am
Retrace yes !!! 1.9540 or so is where I have it... but maybe down again for FOMC ?

I really want to capitalize on retraces this year since they are pretty predictable to a point... problem is to know when the low or high of the day really is... but most often, AFTER THE NEWS EVENTS... and after 11AM or 12 PM cnetral time when NY session is starting wind down.

Is there any real way to know when high or low of the day hits before the retrace has really already started ???
  • #4,632
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:47am Jan 3, 2007 11:47am
Quoting Tiki Trader
goodthings knows about the retrace... his chart says 83 % chance of retrace to 23.6 fib on days with more than 200 pip move. And we all need to give goodthings more REP !!!
He sure does! The thing is, I don't know when the move is done for the day and the retrace has actually begun. Not for a move like this.
  • #4,633
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:49am Jan 3, 2007 11:49am
hey titiko
I dont have chart infront of me but i believe the first move before we go up would be the mid 9300's whatever 161% of the last up wave we had I know it topped at 9750 wherever it started from beginning of last week put fib on it and see where 161 end we should bounce from there


Quoting titikokatiting
hey fixme1too, wer it is headed? just took my 240 pip profit..u think its still gonna go down?
  • #4,634
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:53am Jan 3, 2007 11:53am
Ok I am looking at that !!! Yeah top was 1.9750

yes.. 161 fib is 1.9320
  • #4,635
  • Jan 3, 2007 11:57am Jan 3, 2007 11:57am
Thanks too !!!
  • #4,636
  • Jan 3, 2007 12:00pm Jan 3, 2007 12:00pm
hey tiki,

i i have watched the retrace for about a month or so and it usually occurs around 11:30 or so when europe closes. sometimes it is slow as molasses in january, but usually is a 30% retrace of the days gains or losses. also volume falls off, i see it on the 180 min chart on my software.
  • #4,637
  • Jan 3, 2007 12:01pm Jan 3, 2007 12:01pm
i think we are waiting for the fomc before any movement!!
  • #4,638
  • Jan 3, 2007 12:01pm Jan 3, 2007 12:01pm
I've read that upcoming FOMC is expected to be "slightly Dollar positive".

Now I need you guys on this one: Skipping this news is advised?

I mean, the market is holding this 9500 position heavily. A dollar positive news may help it dive for good...
  • #4,639
  • Jan 3, 2007 12:05pm Jan 3, 2007 12:05pm
<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR title="Post 174738" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>Tiki Trader</TD><TD class=alt2>Ok I am looking at that !!! Yeah top was 1.9750

yes.. 161 fib is 1.9320</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

So are you guys thinking that its going down that far now before rising?
trading on demo is not trading
  • #4,640
  • Jan 3, 2007 12:08pm Jan 3, 2007 12:08pm
How do you know when volume drops off...?? I miss something here. I always want to see volume... but where ??

180 min chart ?? Oanda ??? Me too... but the 4 hour and 3 hour charts look funny to me after always looking at 15 min, Hr, and daily

Yes I notice same about the retrace time... 11:30 oe so I don't care if it is slow, as long as it happens !!!! Makes me feel more confortable to put the trade in and walk away.
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