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Daily PIN Bars

  • #321
  • Nov 28, 2007 1:30pm Nov 28, 2007 1:30pm
Quoting jamesbond007700
What one can do is when the PB is counter trend u can risk less of what u wud risk usually. so suppose if u risk 2% in a "normal" trade, then when PB like the one in usd/chf shows up u can risk 1% of capital. btw r u still in the trade or did u exit? i think trailing sl in + pips wud be the way to go. with so much 'bad" us news u never know when stocks r gonna turn around.
The secret i have found with PB is to have a plan that you have back tested, the forward tested, before going live.

My risk is the same on every trade 1%. I don't care if it is with the trend or counter trend. If it meets my criteria then i trade it.

I am out of the USD/CHF trade now as i had planed to get out at a certain point based on returns so that i could archive my monthly return goals.

It is important to just follow the plan and let the rest take care of itself as i have discovered that if i think now the news is bad it isn't going to work so i dont trade it it normally takes of like a rocket.

I believe trading is all about having a statistical edge. for that edge to work properly you have to trade the same every time.

Enjoy
Ademac
  • #322
  • Nov 28, 2007 2:04pm Nov 28, 2007 2:04pm
Quoting ademac
The secret i have found with PB is to have a plan that you have back tested, the forward tested, before going live.

My risk is the same on every trade 1%. I don't care if it is with the trend or counter trend. If it meets my criteria then i trade it.

I am out of the USD/CHF trade now as i had planed to get out at a certain point based on returns so that i could archive my monthly return goals.

It is important to just follow the plan and let the rest take care of itself as i have discovered that if i think now the news is bad it isn't going to work so i dont trade it it normally takes of like a rocket.

I believe trading is all about having a statistical edge. for that edge to work properly you have to trade the same every time.

Enjoy
Ademac
Excellent Post. I have been successfully trading live since February of this year. In April I "feared" the next trade to recoup a loss I was hit with, and of course I would've recouped it. I usually do a stop and reverse on one trading plan I use to try and recoup some or all of the prior loss. However it was the eur/jpy on Monday that I was afraid to s&r on and I took the loss. I have made more money in Nov than any month so far so I was ok with the loss. Had I reversed the trade I would've overcome that loss by lots of pips, but I didn't trade by my own plan. Losing on that trade has helped me realize I can't let emotions get in the way. Even after this entire year it is still tough not to get emotional. But, looking at the eur/jpy 4hr that past few weeks and you can see it would've made anybody crazy!!!!
  • #323
  • Nov 28, 2007 6:26pm Nov 28, 2007 6:26pm
Now this is what i like to see
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-usd.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #324
  • Nov 28, 2007 11:14pm Nov 28, 2007 11:14pm
Quoting ademac
Now this is what i like to see
looks interesting. what one cud call high probability.
  • #325
  • Nov 29, 2007 1:23pm Nov 29, 2007 1:23pm
Quoting ademac
Now this is what i like to see
woooah... that retracement of the PB is gettin mighty scarey! hopefully on its way back up...
"Please sir, may I have some more pips?"
  • #326
  • Nov 30, 2007 6:38pm Nov 30, 2007 6:38pm
Quoting J2FcM
woooah... that retracement of the PB is gettin mighty scarey! hopefully on its way back up...
well u win some u lose some, so its imp. for mm. interestingly it was with the trend. the one before(just short of 1.50)worked well and was counter trend. plus one cud have stayed out if one waited for the break of the top of the pb
  • #327
  • Nov 30, 2007 7:23pm Nov 30, 2007 7:23pm
Quoting jamesbond007700
well u win some u lose some, so its imp. for mm. interestingly it was with the trend. the one before(just short of 1.50)worked well and was counter trend. plus one cud have stayed out if one waited for the break of the top of the pb
yes waiting for the break of the top/bottom of the pin bars is better. The eur/usd needed a retrace anyway so to me the 1st pin bar to short was the better way to go. Yeah I know they don't always work out that way as you never know when the end of a trend can be. It should continue down to the 23.6% fib now of about 1.4587. It may open Sunday there. I took my profit and ran for the weekend.

Looks like the usd/chf, usd/cad, gbp/chf, eur/gbp, eur/chf were all good counter trend trades too.

Look at some of the weekly charts. Aud/nzd may be ready to go back up. The aud/cad daily could be set too for a downtrend. If it were a down candle today it may have been a better chance. I am going to play them both though.
  • #328
  • Nov 30, 2007 8:02pm Nov 30, 2007 8:02pm
Once again I must object... the EUR/CHF was WIth the trend... !!! Just zoom out and look...

As for the EUR/USD... I also say that second daily PB was simply something that went wrong in the markets that day... it was going to be a down day... somehting happened... like the big day on the dow, and forced EUR back up... we got the down days the next 2 days, which negated the PB... just my opinion... but playing the PB by the basic rules would keep you from losing anything in this case... I have learned my lesson on this... a couple of weeks ago I took a GBP/USD daily PB... jumped in before it was time and traded far more than i should have... the PB failed and I lost 10% of my account...... now my account is down for the year, and little or no chance to make it up this year... DON'T JUMP IN ON THE PIN BARS BEFORE IT IS TIME, UNLESS YOU REALLY KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING !!!! YOU WILL PAY THE PRICE... JUST AS I DID....

Quoting llambert3
yes waiting for the break of the top/bottom of the pin bars is better. The eur/usd needed a retrace anyway so to me the 1st pin bar to short was the better way to go. Yeah I know they don't always work out that way as you never know when the end of a trend can be. It should continue down to the 23.6% fib now of about 1.4587. It may open Sunday there. I took my profit and ran for the weekend.

Looks like the usd/chf, usd/cad, gbp/chf, eur/gbp, eur/chf were all good counter trend trades too.

Look at some of the weekly charts. Aud/nzd may be ready to go back up. The aud/cad daily could be set too for a downtrend. If it were a down candle today it may have been a better chance. I am going to play them both though.
  • #329
  • Nov 30, 2007 9:00pm Nov 30, 2007 9:00pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Once again I must object... the EUR/CHF was WIth the trend... !!! Just zoom out and look...

As for the EUR/USD... I also say that second daily PB was simply something that went wrong in the markets that day... it was going to be a down day... somehting happened... like the big day on the dow, and forced EUR back up... we got the down days the next 2 days, which negated the PB... just my opinion... but playing the PB by the basic rules would keep you from losing anything in this case... I have learned my lesson on this... a couple of weeks ago I took a GBP/USD daily PB... jumped in before it was time and traded far more than i should have... the PB failed and I lost 10% of my account...... now my account is down for the year, and little or no chance to make it up this year... DON'T JUMP IN ON THE PIN BARS BEFORE IT IS TIME, UNLESS YOU REALLY KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING !!!! YOU WILL PAY THE PRICE... JUST AS I DID....
Ok, I see the eur/chf was in an uptrend when scrolling out, but for a month it was in a downtrend on the daily, which could've kept going down and down. When do you decide the trend? On the weekly it is still an uptrend. But you can almost make any chart be in any trend if you go back far enough. The gbp/chf monthly has been in an small uptrend since 2003, but a downtrend on the daily since July. One thing for me is the weekly and daily eur/usd has been in a major uptrend and that 11/23 daily bar was a good disply of a turnaround. Just like the usd/cad and usd/chf. But of course I didn't trade these two.

Just curious what date was the gbp/usd that failed?
  • #330
  • Nov 30, 2007 9:13pm Nov 30, 2007 9:13pm
OK we all have our opinions... but on daily and above, the trend seems clear to me on eur/chf... the up trend line is obvious... I too do not always zoom out so it may seem to have been in a down trend... but I say a correction or pull back to the trend line... I did not see such a great PB when price turned back up now... but rather that we were at the trend line... and it turned around...

For me, I always use the 62 ema, 200 ems and the 800 SMA to show me the overall dominant trend... try it... zoom in zoom out, on any time frame, you will see what I mean...

Here is the gbp/usd daily PB that failed on Nov 1st...

Quoting llambert3
Ok, I see the eur/chf was in an uptrend when scrolling out, but for a month it was in a downtrend on the daily, which could've kept going down and down. When do you decide the trend? On the weekly it is still an uptrend. But you can almost make any chart be in any trend if you go back far enough. The gbp/chf monthly has been in an small uptrend since 2003, but a downtrend on the daily since July. One thing for me is the weekly and daily eur/usd has been in a major uptrend and that 11/23 daily bar was a good disply of a turnaround. Just like the usd/cad and usd/chf. But of course I didn't trade these two.

Just curious what date was the gbp/usd that failed?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #331
  • Nov 30, 2007 9:20pm Nov 30, 2007 9:20pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
OK we all have our opinions... but on daily and above, the trend seems clear to me on eur/chf... the up trend line is obvious... I too do not always zoom out so it may seem to have been in a down trend... but I say a correction or pull back to the trend line... I did not see such a great PB when price turned back up now... but rather that we were at the trend line... and it turned around...

For me, I always use the 62 ema, 200 ems and the 800 SMA to show me the overall dominant trend... try it... zoom in zoom out, on any time frame, you will see what I mean...

Here is the gbp/usd daily PB that failed on Nov 1st...
Cool, yeah I see what you are saying. I use 10ema and 50ema and on the daily it wasn't that long ago it crossed so I agree on the eur/chf. I don't really care which way the pin bar forms though. On the gbp/usd 11/1 bar, if you'd put the trade in 1 pip below the low, you would've stayed out of that sell. Then when it went above the high, the pin was invalidated. At least that is how I do it.
  • #332
  • Nov 30, 2007 9:30pm Nov 30, 2007 9:30pm
I always, except for this one time play PBs exactly by the rules... enter 10-15 pips after the PB breaks... this time I jumped in close to the start of the next bar when price happened to be going down at that moment... my stop was correctly placed above the nose of the PB... And I watched as my 10% slipped away... unbelieving my own eyes, saying this just could not happen !!!

My thinking was that the new upspike had finished because it was coming up off a flag pole where the second pole should be about as long as the first... so I was sure we had hit top... I even traded far more than I should have in trade size... something I said I would never do... so I 'believed' all the way to my stop, that price would turn around to my favor... I was a true FOOL.. and I say all this to hopefully prevent someone else from doing the same thing... though so often we all have to learn the lessons the hard way...

This was for sure, the worst trading mistake I have made all year... MBQB surely has lost faith in me... as I promised myself I would not do stupid PB trades ever again... and yet I did... This one hurt really bad... I had a chance to finally be profitable this year for the first time... and I truly blew it.... I hope MBQB can find it in his heart to forgive me !!!!

Quoting llambert3
Cool, yeah I see what you are saying. I use 10ema and 50ema and on the daily it wasn't that long ago it crossed so I agree on the eur/chf. I don't really care which way the pin bar forms though. On the gbp/usd 11/1 bar, if you'd put the trade in 1 pip below the low, you would've stayed out of that sell. Then when it went above the high, the pin was invalidated. At least that is how I do it.
  • #333
  • Nov 30, 2007 9:48pm Nov 30, 2007 9:48pm
Who is mbqb?

And I do know exactly how you feel. It has certainly happened to me too, just this week I gave back way too much money over fear. Luckily I am still profitable for the year.

I have done exactly the same thing as you. I have been so sure of a trade to watch it hit the stop. To feel like throwing up has happened many times, even if playing with the house's money. Sorry it happened to you.
  • #334
  • Nov 30, 2007 9:59pm Nov 30, 2007 9:59pm
FF member mbqb11

Yeah... it turns your stomach...!!! And worse when your wife is sitting right there watching too, telling you to get out get out and I calmly saying 'have faith'... it'll be alright.... and then her saying she is going take all my forex money away from me....!!!!


Quoting llambert3
Who is mbqb?

And I do know exactly how you feel. It has certainly happened to me too, just this week I gave back way too much money over fear. Luckily I am still profitable for the year.

I have done exactly the same thing as you. I have been so sure of a trade to watch it hit the stop. To feel like throwing up has happened many times, even if playing with the house's money. Sorry it happened to you.
  • #335
  • Nov 30, 2007 10:12pm Nov 30, 2007 10:12pm
LOL - we have a LOT in common. But the recent withdrawals I have been able to pull out has finally shut her up!!!
  • #336
  • Dec 1, 2007 9:52am Dec 1, 2007 9:52am
Quoting Tiki Trader
OK we all have our opinions... but on daily and above, the trend seems clear to me on eur/chf... the up trend line is obvious... I too do not always zoom out so it may seem to have been in a down trend... but I say a correction or pull back to the trend line... I did not see such a great PB when price turned back up now... but rather that we were at the trend line... and it turned around...

For me, I always use the 62 ema, 200 ems and the 800 SMA to show me the overall dominant trend... try it... zoom in zoom out, on any time frame, you will see what I mean...

Here is the gbp/usd daily PB that failed on Nov 1st...
This shows even 1kt traders can make "emotional"mistakes of jumping in too early and losing 10% of account in 1 trade.
  • #337
  • Dec 1, 2007 11:11am Dec 1, 2007 11:11am
Quoting jamesbond007700
This shows even 1kt traders can make "emotional"mistakes of jumping in too early and losing 10% of account in 1 trade.
Everybody can and, for the most part, will from time to time. It's a part of trading, and it's definitely a hard part to overcome without a lot of practice trying to keep your head on straight.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #338
  • Dec 1, 2007 11:12am Dec 1, 2007 11:12am
And looking carefully. you would most likely see that my 1KT status is hardly deserved... although I do appreciate it !!!

Quoting jamesbond007700
This shows even 1kt traders can make "emotional"mistakes of jumping in too early and losing 10% of account in 1 trade.
  • #339
  • Dec 3, 2007 10:23pm Dec 3, 2007 10:23pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
And looking carefully. you would most likely see that my 1KT status is hardly deserved... although I do appreciate it !!!
i think if u have it, u must be deserving of it.
  • #340
  • Dec 4, 2007 8:49am Dec 4, 2007 8:49am
Do we have a pin bar on the daily charts of the Crude oil January futures contract?
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