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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #4,361
  • Jan 2, 2007 11:34am Jan 2, 2007 11:34am
Quoting summitfx
follow the commentary
Well thanks for that, a useful bit of news.
Cheers
Minesweeper target: 284
  • #4,362
  • Jan 2, 2007 11:45am Jan 2, 2007 11:45am
Quoting Tatton
last night at around 2pm-3pm etc everyone was posting about a short, i didnt see any shorts so i went long, baffled why people were going short .. im sure glad i stuck to my method instead of doing what i saw pople posting ..
I was down 2 trades last night for - 30 pips - then picked up 40 on a short - not bad for a bad day - I stopped posting because I started to get the feeling that people were getting offended or angry, not my intention. Perhaps I overpost, I will try to post less and make them more quality posts.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,363
  • Jan 2, 2007 11:46am Jan 2, 2007 11:46am
Hi guys n gals here,

My very first post will be here..hehe..though i do read these forums for sometime already..

Anyway,looking at the 4hr cable chart, do I see a double top forming right around this point of time,with the first peak at 9748 on 20/12/2006 and the second peak forming right around this point..it will be interesting to watch these points as the day ends and continues on tommorow..

Do correct me if i got it wrong somewhere..thanx..
  • #4,364
  • Jan 2, 2007 12:02pm Jan 2, 2007 12:02pm
Quoting Leugimp
I was down 2 trades last night for - 30 pips - then picked up 40 on a short - not bad for a bad day - I stopped posting because I started to get the feeling that people were getting offended or angry, not my intention. Perhaps I overpost, I will try to post less and make them more quality posts.
no problembro.. this is a public forum you can do what yu want as long as its done tastfully, i didnt take offence to anything anyone posted

you are not the only person posting about going short, i just didnt see any indication to go short and i picked up 50pips long ..

happy trading
  • #4,365
  • Jan 2, 2007 12:02pm Jan 2, 2007 12:02pm
Does anybody have a defibrillator there? Lines are showing "market dead" here...

peeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

  • #4,366
  • Jan 2, 2007 12:11pm Jan 2, 2007 12:11pm
Quoting Leugimp
I stopped posting because I started to get the feeling that people were getting offended or angry, not my intention. Perhaps I overpost, I will try to post less and make them more quality posts.
Leugimp,

Of course it's not your intention to offend or anger someone because that someone must choose anger or choose to be offended. Otherwise, that person admits he or she has surrendered their life to you to the extent that you have so much power and influence over their lives that by a word or two you can make them angry.

Your posts are some of the more thoughtful and analytical in FF. So please post to your heart's delight.
  • #4,367
  • Jan 2, 2007 12:21pm Jan 2, 2007 12:21pm
hey L,

your posts are fine. some people might get offended or angry cuz they want you to make money for them every time. when the market doesn't respond to what you are seeing and the way you are seeing it... you get the idea. there are a few guys on here that have tremendous insight, but since this is a open market, it can do what it wants when it wants for no reason and your advice can be wrong and will be sometimes. i guess these people do not realize that you will have losses trading, accept them and make sure you have your risk adjusted to absorb them and move on. just my thoughts. keep posting, i appreciate your insights and analysis, very useful and helpful.
  • #4,368
  • Jan 2, 2007 12:26pm Jan 2, 2007 12:26pm
Quoting mtrmth
hey L,

your posts are fine. some people might get offended or angry cuz they want you to make money for them every time. when the market doesn't respond to what you are seeing and the way you are seeing it... you get the idea. there are a few guys on here that have tremendous insight, but since this is a open market, it can do what it wants when it wants for no reason and your advice can be wrong and will be sometimes. i guess these people do not realize that you will have losses trading, accept them and make sure you have your risk adjusted to absorb them and move on. just my thoughts. keep posting, i appreciate your insights and analysis, very useful and helpful.
These words are my words, too
  • #4,369
  • Jan 2, 2007 12:30pm Jan 2, 2007 12:30pm
there you go cesar, it moved 9 pips!!!
  • #4,370
  • Jan 2, 2007 12:35pm Jan 2, 2007 12:35pm
Quoting mtrmth
there you go cesar, it moved 9 pips!!!
Funny guy

Well, at least I was wise enough to stay out most of the day instead of placing stupid anxiety-driven trades... Hard to swallow but it is true: having no position is having a position afterall.

Special thanks for Moe, MoneyMaster for the "stay-out" calls... That helped me a gread deal...

Out for gym, back to see what Asia is going to do out of this crappy market and possibly get back to profit tomorrow...

See you !
  • #4,371
  • Jan 2, 2007 12:37pm Jan 2, 2007 12:37pm
Quoting samuel84
Hi guys n gals here,

My very first post will be here..hehe..though i do read these forums for sometime already..

Anyway,looking at the 4hr cable chart, do I see a double top forming right around this point of time,with the first peak at 9748 on 20/12/2006 and the second peak forming right around this point..it will be interesting to watch these points as the day ends and continues on tommorow..

Do correct me if i got it wrong somewhere..thanx..
Hi Samuel84, welcome to the fray.

You are not necessarily wrong with your double-top formation. I see an inverted head-and-shoulders with the neckline at 9740 or thereabouts. The fly in the ointment is the proximity of the high on December 1st. Also volumes are a bit unpredictable this week. So I guess we just wait a while to see.

Minesweeper target: 284
  • #4,372
  • Jan 2, 2007 1:00pm Jan 2, 2007 1:00pm
Quoting Primate
Hi Samuel84, welcome to the fray.

You are not necessarily wrong with your double-top formation. I see an inverted head-and-shoulders with the neckline at 9740 or thereabouts. The fly in the ointment is the proximity of the high on December 1st. Also volumes are a bit unpredictable this week. So I guess we just wait a while to see.

Hi,

yeah i see wat u see too..but my concern does any indication supports it in sense of stoch or rsi or any others?im no pro..but checkin rsi its kinda high already,cci is heading down and stoch is on a verge of a cross (sorry for the plain words used,hehe..im no pro in terms : ).

cross checking with gbp/jpy,its bound for a correction,with also most indications showing too high readings.the only confirmation for me now is to see where does usd/jpy heads by this week,and if all goes well,i expect to see pound to correct to about 9500++ initially.

though many here are pointing for a rise higher,im somesort skeptical of this pair goin higher,but hey i might be wrong,so we juz wait and see...

do give me your views,and also not forgettin correct me where i went wrong in my statement above..tq..
  • #4,373
  • Jan 2, 2007 1:04pm Jan 2, 2007 1:04pm
Leugimp don't stop posting u are a main player in keeping this very informative and intersting thread alive.You have given me the necessary push into writing my first post not just here but anywhere . thanks
  • #4,374
  • Jan 2, 2007 1:32pm Jan 2, 2007 1:32pm
Quoting Leugimp
I was down 2 trades last night for - 30 pips - then picked up 40 on a short - not bad for a bad day - I stopped posting because I started to get the feeling that people were getting offended or angry, not my intention. Perhaps I overpost, I will try to post less and make them more quality posts.
Leugimp, please remain with us and PLEASE keep posting! We've all learned so much from you..... Your commentary is right on the money, both literally and figuratively.....
  • #4,375
  • Jan 2, 2007 2:11pm Jan 2, 2007 2:11pm
Hi,

yeah i see wat u see too..but my concern does any indication supports it in sense of stoch or rsi or any others?im no pro..but checkin rsi its kinda high already,cci is heading down and stoch is on a verge of a cross (sorry for the plain words used,hehe..im no pro in terms : ).

cross checking with gbp/jpy,its bound for a correction,with also most indications showing too high readings.the only confirmation for me now is to see where does usd/jpy heads by this week,and if all goes well,i expect to see pound to correct to about 9500++ initially.

though many here are pointing for a rise higher,im somesort skeptical of this pair goin higher,but hey i might be wrong,so we juz wait and see...

do give me your views,and also not forgettin correct me where i went wrong in my statement above..tq..



Hi Samuel,

I just joined here too. I like the posts here as there are more "market streaming" commentary here as opposed to another room I participate in.

Be very very careful with gbp/jpy and calling for any significant retracement as it just completed a 50% retracement! 231.55 on 12/27 to 233.88 on 12/29 pulled back exactly to 50% at 232.71 on 1/1. This looks like the beginning of a new move to me and could easily extend to 236.50 ish. Just my two cents... good luck good tradeshttp://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon14.gif
  • #4,376
  • Jan 2, 2007 2:17pm Jan 2, 2007 2:17pm
post all you want, the more info the better. If it happens to be the wrong info oh well, at least i know why. This forum is good for ideas and thoughts, no one here trying to make predictions. Don't take offense. Share your ideas and your insights, we're all here to learn from one another.
But, one thing i do have to say though. For those that just like to post " oh yeah i have made blah blah blah amount of pips" without any info on how or why you have made that trade is rather annoying.
  • #4,377
  • Jan 2, 2007 2:22pm Jan 2, 2007 2:22pm
Quoting Pickensrulz
Hi Samuel,

I just joined here too. I like the posts here as there are more "market streaming" commentary here as opposed to another room I participate in.

Be very very careful with gbp/jpy and calling for any significant retracement as it just completed a 50% retracement! 231.55 on 12/27 to 233.88 on 12/29 pulled back exactly to 50% at 232.71 on 1/1. This looks like the beginning of a new move to me and could easily extend to 236.50 ish. Just my two cents... good luck good tradeshttp://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ons/icon14.gif
erm,...is it?i guess i didnt notice tht..on 1st my broker was closed... ok even if it did,im still very very doubtful of it goin higher,no idea yet why is tht..hopefully someone can shine some light soon..
  • #4,378
  • Jan 2, 2007 2:41pm Jan 2, 2007 2:41pm
Well sam actually I am shedding some light onto you..

Using technical indicators like RSI and stochastics in a trending market is the quick path to the insolvency. Top and bottom pickers soon become cotton pickers. You can lead a horse to water..etc... good luck to ya
  • #4,379
  • Jan 2, 2007 2:46pm Jan 2, 2007 2:46pm
Although the timing of the COT report is not too reliable, it does currently imply risk of reversal of trend in GBPUSD. It would seem from this report, that currently, over 86% of speculators are net long, not really leaving the door open for too many new speculative buyers to come in and move price up. Also, commercial positioning seems pretty extreme short as well - over 80%. Open interest has been declining, granted it is pretty normal around this time - perhaps a double top and lower open interest will end the rally. As for the shorter term, we are at the top of channel on 1600 tick chart, as long as this high holds, on a close, this could be the start of the move down to the 200SMA on 4hr chart, which is currently in mid 94's. The other scenario that I see as probable is that price will converge with 200SMA by just trading more or less sideways, at which point we will have a good point for new buyers to come in at a seemingly good price, or for net long speculators to unwind the remainders on drop below the 200SMA.
In the meantime, I will be looking closesly at my oscilators for patterns of short term trend continuation and reversals and take what I can on a portion and allowing the remainder to travel freely. Although I feel this scenario is probable, it is still wise to stay very cautious as ADX has also bottomed out and is beginning to rise, a breakout soon may occur, although I feel a breakout to the long side is very likely to be a false breakout accompanied by diminishing momentum, volume, and i will most likely try to use it to position myself short. Once again, just an opinion.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #4,380
  • Jan 2, 2007 3:10pm Jan 2, 2007 3:10pm
Quoting Pickensrulz
Well sam actually I am shedding some light onto you..

Using technical indicators like RSI and stochastics in a trending market is the quick path to the insolvency. Top and bottom pickers soon become cotton pickers. You can lead a horse to water..etc... good luck to ya
icic..thanx..i looked again at the gbp/jpy charts,with a closer look, and wat u said is true and well i guess im gonna wait for it to break 233.03,as looked like a double bottom on the 4hr chart with the base at 233.03 which was tested on the 29th and hold firm still..ok lets get back to topic..this thread is about the cable..hehe..
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