Trend Hugger System

Quoting paradoxical

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Being only inthe forex arena for several months, when someone that has the respect and admiration of others (tkimble) that have been in forex far longer than I, I would be a fool not to pay attention. I think it was J.Paul Getty that once said he got rich by hiring guys that were much smarter than he was. So, I'm applying that philosophy to forex. I plan on getting rich by paying attention to to people that are much smarter than I. When tkimble says this is his best system ever, I have to believe that it probably is. When I see the accolades of others that have followed him in the past, I know he knows what he's talking about. Further, when I see that he's not interested in writing a book and making money off that book, which he most assuredly could, I poersonally have admiration already for the guy. So, being not quite a newbie, which is probably good, because I know I don't know much, I have read this thread twice already. Good thing it's not 1000 pages (yet), but I'm sure it will be in short order. I'm new here. Have traded forex for about a year. Much better and safer than the stock market, and I love it. Look forward to being here a long time. By the way, I have already paid my dues in the stock market, and have not been, and will not be, one of the 95% people who lose in forex. That's my vow, and that's why I'm here. With the assistance and knowledge of people like tkimble and many others here, I'll be in the 5%. Nice meeting all of you.

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Quoting Porkpie

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I just want to throw in a point that most of the systems on FF are about entry into the market. Caution is needed. You could trade off a coin flip which would give you 50/50 profitable trades and be profitable. My point is, entry is not as important as your money management and your exits.

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Quoting tkimble

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Only exit when you are stopped out. Otherwise it is a Stop and Reverse (SAR) which is my preference for trading. I love the action.

TK

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Quoting Porkpie

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I appreciate the creativity that people use to develope systems I find it very interesting and it makes trading more interesting than it really is (thats why I enjoy reading about other people's systems on the forum). But when I read something like this above it reminds me of when I was still trying to be profitable and I was system hopping all over the place. Its great when you find something that fits you as a trading method, but only time will tell you whether it really is for you or not. I just want to throw in a point that most of the systems on FF are about entry into the market. Caution is needed. You could trade off a coin flip which would give you 50/50 profitable trades and be profitable. My point is, entry is not as important as your money management and your exits. A system can have 90% probability of winning and you could still lose. A system could have 30% chance of winning and you could be profitable! Just knowing a good entry will not get you into the 5% team.

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Quoting paradoxical

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I appreciate the advice. Another person who trades forex for a living taught me that money management is even more important than the trading. Depending on your risk tolerance, I've learned that there's all kinds of money management systems, ranging from the conservative of not using more than 1% on any one trade to the risky of using variations of the Martingale systems. Or the "Profitsrup" system that I consider risky. For my own trading, I have chosen to use approximately 3% of my account balance on every trade. That way, I am risking less when losing, and more when winning. I always use stops, and with a definite 50 pip stop loss, I can easily figure how many lots to trade that would equal that 3% risk. For instance, 3 lots with a balance of $5,000., and 6 lots with a balance of $10,000. In other forex rooms, this topic was debated extensively and sometimes heatedly, with people sarcastically claiming that a person would never get anywhere unless they used the (you pick it) money management system. My choice was 3%, and combined with a good system. I am always open to suggestions and learning from others who have more experience and knowledge than I.

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Quoting smikester

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I spent hours looking at this osma setting. I back tested June for GBP/JPY which for some reason I have some difficulty in back test trading with any H1 and upwards TF systems. It was relatively succesful. Made a profit, anyway. Then I traded January and was getting some profitable but relatively poor results. Then I encountered this:

Attachment

It looks like this osma setting doesn't read long upward trends very well. It might not be a problem if we are aware of it.

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Quoting mazdaz

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----------------------------------------------
My MM rules are somewhat similar to yours.

Capital = $15000
Leverage = 50:1
Purchasing Power = 750,000 Units

My Stop Loss on all trades are designed in a way that I only lose 1% of my equity should they hit.

I would target 1 medium term and 2-3 short term trades for a day.

Short term trades (SL = 5-10, TP = 5-20)
Mid term trades (SL = 30-60, TP = 40-90)

Currency Pairs = GBP/JPY & EUR/USD


On an average day, my Win/Loss ratio would be 2:2. That's around 0.5-0.9% profit/ day.


----------------------------------------------

Well, that is what I am working towards. Not quite there yet.

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Quoting paradoxical

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Your scenario is the kind that will make you money even if you win ony 50% of the time. I look for either a system that has a track record of about 60%, or one that wins more pips than it loses per trade. Seems that some are already dissing this system. Maybe they're right. But, from what I see, the wins on this one far outnumber the losses, and a 50 pip stop loss would have saved you during the "January" scenario. I have to think that tkimble knows what he's doing, since he's come up with other good systems. Seems like people look for the holy grail here, and look for faults in other peoples systems. No system is going to be 100%, or perfect for all times.

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Quoting fiveshorts

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Thanks tkimble for sharing this system. It's nice to simplify for a change.

Two quick questions:

1. Do you excercise any discretion at all regarding the longer term trend? Does it affect your TP levels/expectations or your stop levels?

2. Should I assume that entry always occurs at the close of a bar -- so at the open of the second bar after an OsMA value change? (see attached)

Many thanks.

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Quoting jayjay121

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i wonder if we could use the DIVERGENCE to our advantage as normally when we see divergence it means the bigger overall trend could be changing sides.


jason

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Quoting paradoxical

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Being only inthe forex arena for several months, when someone that has the respect and admiration of others (tkimble) that have been in forex far longer than I, I would be a fool not to pay attention. I think it was J.Paul Getty that once said he got rich by hiring guys that were much smarter than he was. So, I'm applying that philosophy to forex. I plan on getting rich by paying attention to to people that are much smarter than I. When tkimble says this is his best system ever, I have to believe that it probably is. When I see the accolades of others that have followed him in the past, I know he knows what he's talking about. Further, when I see that he's not interested in writing a book and making money off that book, which he most assuredly could, I poersonally have admiration already for the guy. So, being not quite a newbie, which is probably good, because I know I don't know much, I have read this thread twice already. Good thing it's not 1000 pages (yet), but I'm sure it will be in short order. I'm new here. Have traded forex for about a year. Much better and safer than the stock market, and I love it. Look forward to being here a long time. By the way, I have already paid my dues in the stock market, and have not been, and will not be, one of the 95% people who lose in forex. That's my vow, and that's why I'm here. With the assistance and knowledge of people like tkimble and many others here, I'll be in the 5%. Nice meeting all of you.

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Quoting tkimble

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Long now GBP/JPY at 224.56 from 0900 GMT.

TK

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Quoting paradoxical

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I don't know how to attach charts. Have tried for the past half hour to figure it out. Anyway, regarding the trade you're in, looking at my North Finance chart, it appears the trade would have developed at 12:00 (probably 9:00 on the broker you use?). I got an open of 224.58, which is close enough to your 224.56. The two OSMA bars before this open were 0.148 and then 0.149, and were in the lower end of the trough. So, had I been watching the chart at that time, seeing as the OSma value had increased by a point, I would have planned a quick entry right at the open of the next hour?

As I write this, it sits at 229.19 for a gain of 463 pips!!! And, you would stay in this trade until the OSMA values started going down? Seems I have it right, but want to sure.

One final thing. I assume you simply leave a 150 pip stop loss in a situation like this when you have to be away or are sleeping, assuming you do sleep?

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