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Daily PIN Bars

  • #301
  • Nov 26, 2007 8:28pm Nov 26, 2007 8:28pm
OK, I am with what has been said... But again... zoom out... this PB is with the overall up trend.... which has been in correction down to the trend line... it is only logical to think that this PB might be bouncing off the trend line, time to get back into the over all up trend... unless you know special little market secrets like seeking, rac, MBQB, and Mr Trend do...

That's my storym and I'm stickin to it... !!!

Quoting mike w
Exactly Ademac. I wish I could expell words like that. haha I was having a hard time trying to figure out the best way to explain but you just did it for me. And thank you for your patience. Pin bars that form as counter trend bars oftentimes form because of a retracement, which will only get you burned.
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  • #302
  • Nov 26, 2007 8:33pm Nov 26, 2007 8:33pm
And just so everyone knows... especially those watching me with their little green dots turned off... this PB was never an A Trade in my eyes... if I had thought it were.. I think I would have been willing to risk 3%...


Quoting Wall_Street
Thanks for the response Tiki. I was only asking because I do think pin bars in those type of set-ups "In Traffic" pin bars are still good ones some times. I need to get better at playing only the real good set-ups. All part of the learning experience. Happy Trading
  • #303
  • Nov 26, 2007 8:33pm Nov 26, 2007 8:33pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
I will be very careful here watching to see if price can get back above the trendline... if it bounces off the trend line... I will get out... because we will likely be seeing a continuation down...
Tiki,
Couldn't have put it any better myself. I agree the EUR/CHF looks promising and the 6315 area is 78.6% of (6173 to 6827) for you fib fans. Also Daily 365 EMA is 6333 and previous congestion zone on daily is 6350/6305 area. If you are interested in COT numbers we are now switching to cautiously bullish. So what that tells me is we are early for this rally back to 6800 area. So there is still some risk but an entry close to 6300 with a 20/25 pip stop loss should be all you need. The reason you could use a very small stop loss here is if 6305/6297 goes again then most likely we will see 6173 tested again. No need to have a 50-100 pip stop loss. This is how I will play it. Good luck all........
  • #304
  • Nov 26, 2007 8:37pm Nov 26, 2007 8:37pm


Quoting Wall_Street
Tiki,
Couldn't have put it any better myself. I agree the EUR/CHF looks promising and the 6315 area is 78.6% of (6173 to 6827) for you fib fans. Also Daily 365 EMA is 6333 and previous congestion zone on daily is 6350/6305 area. If you are interested in COT numbers we are now switching to cautiously bullish. So what that tells me is we are early for this rally back to 6800 area. So there is still some risk but an entry close to 6300 with a 20/25 pip stop loss should be all you need. The reason you could use a very small stop loss here is if 6305/6297 goes again then most likely we will see 6173 tested again. No need to have a 50-100 pip stop loss. This is how I will play it. Good luck all........
  • #305
  • Nov 26, 2007 8:45pm Nov 26, 2007 8:45pm
Eur/usd 4 Day Pin Bar - Daily
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  • #306
  • Nov 26, 2007 8:47pm Nov 26, 2007 8:47pm
USD/CHF Daily Pin Bar
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  • #307
  • Nov 26, 2007 8:50pm Nov 26, 2007 8:50pm
Daily Pin Bar on trendline with head and shoulders pattern.
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  • #308
  • Nov 26, 2007 9:12pm Nov 26, 2007 9:12pm
Daily PB....

4 hr IB... turning the corner back up ???

Happy happy
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  • #309
  • Nov 27, 2007 2:37pm Nov 27, 2007 2:37pm
I wasn't around to jump in, but the basic point made between mike w and Ademac was... don't take pin bars against the trend. Was anything else missing?
"Please sir, may I have some more pips?"
  • #310
  • Nov 27, 2007 4:07pm Nov 27, 2007 4:07pm
Quoting J2FcM
I wasn't around to jump in, but the basic point made between mike w and Ademac was... don't take pin bars against the trend. Was anything else missing?
Yes that was Mike W point "Dont trade against the trend" But it goes deeper than that.

While i agree with MW that you shouldn't trade against the trend i also believe if you are going to do it you need to have a valid and tested reason to. I believe, i have in that in PB's, It is the only time i will.

What i have decided to do to test MW suggestion that "Counter Trend trading PB's is not profitable" I am going to modify my trading plan so that for every trade i place from now on I will mark them Trend or Counter Trend, and continue to trade them as i normally would. At the end of 3 months i will review all the trades for the period and be able to give myself a definitive answer.

Before you go and make any changes to your trading plan, I suggest you do the same. Prove or disprove the theory.

Enjoy
Ademac
  • #311
  • Nov 27, 2007 4:39pm Nov 27, 2007 4:39pm
Well, I mostly was worrying about the "end of bar retracements" or whatever the retracement bit was. So simplified, trading vs the trend isn't as good, or in his words "dumb".

While I already know it is more risky, fine tuning things to the point where it isn't as risky (in the right conditions) might result in more profit. Although, I currently do not trade against the trend.
"Please sir, may I have some more pips?"
  • #312
  • Nov 27, 2007 7:54pm Nov 27, 2007 7:54pm
Quoting ademac
I am going to modify my trading plan so that for every trade i place from now on I will mark them Trend or Counter Trend...
Hi Ademac. First I want to thank you for this really nice thread and hope you keep posting. I'm very interested in the above discussion so I would like to ask you what will be your criteria to define a pin as Trend or Counter Trend? Please answer my question if you find the time. Sebastien
  • #313
  • Nov 27, 2007 8:21pm Nov 27, 2007 8:21pm
I don't know... I think this usd/cad weekly PB was quite against the trend... Do we not trade that because it is against the trend ??? I know I traded it... !!!

I think it all depends on lots of factors... you must judge where the PB comes... and many other thingsthat are involved...

Quoting ademac
Yes that was Mike W point "Dont trade against the trend" But it goes deeper than that.

While i agree with MW that you shouldn't trade against the trend i also believe if you are going to do it you need to have a valid and tested reason to. I believe, i have in that in PB's, It is the only time i will.

What i have decided to do to test MW suggestion that "Counter Trend trading PB's is not profitable" I am going to modify my trading plan so that for every trade i place from now on I will mark them Trend or Counter Trend, and continue to trade them as i normally would. At the end of 3 months i will review all the trades for the period and be able to give myself a definitive answer.

Before you go and make any changes to your trading plan, I suggest you do the same. Prove or disprove the theory.

Enjoy
Ademac
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  • #314
  • Nov 27, 2007 8:24pm Nov 27, 2007 8:24pm
The EUR/CHF PB from last Friday really points WITH the trend that actually is UP... but it also has a very good chance NOT to work out...
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  • #315
  • Nov 27, 2007 11:44pm Nov 27, 2007 11:44pm
Quoting OGW
Hi Ademac. First I want to thank you for this really nice thread and hope you keep posting. I'm very interested in the above discussion so I would like to ask you what will be your criteria to define a pin as Trend or Counter Trend? Please answer my question if you find the time. Sebastien
The USD/CAD weekly has good examples of both
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  • #316
  • Nov 28, 2007 12:30am Nov 28, 2007 12:30am
I think I'm still a little hazy here... is there any OTHER reasons to NOT take that USD CAD PB?

I mean, besides being counter trend; my guess is - no matter what PBs that are counter trend, no matter how good looking, will bite you more often than PBs with the trend.
"Please sir, may I have some more pips?"
  • #317
  • Nov 28, 2007 3:12am Nov 28, 2007 3:12am
Quoting J2FcM
I think I'm still a little hazy here... is there any OTHER reasons to NOT take that USD CAD PB?

I mean, besides being counter trend; my guess is - no matter what PBs that are counter trend, no matter how good looking, will bite you more often than PBs with the trend.
OK, So now your confused,

There is only 1 reason to not take "that" and it is no even a good reason IMO, If you go ask J16 then he will tell you that you can trade these Counter trend PB's or ask mbqb11 or simply check out his post in the J16 chart thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3914

now back to my reason. It is because of the saying "the trend is your friend" & " don't trade against the trend" both of these are vague they are up there with "Let your winners run and cut your losers short"

If you really want a powerful saying then this one trumps them all "Plan the trade, then trade the plan" I have a plan that i trade and it includes counter trend trades and so far i am making money with them, cause i trade the plan.

Now to my final thoughts, don't let what i or anyone else say influence you go out and prove it for yourself.

Enjoy
Ademac
  • #318
  • Nov 28, 2007 3:23am Nov 28, 2007 3:23am
Thanks for your reply. So according to that post by mbqb11, does the eur-chf pin falls into categorie 1 or 3? I mean if you consider the longer term trend then I would guess categorie 3 right? Sebastien
  • #319
  • Nov 28, 2007 4:27am Nov 28, 2007 4:27am
Quoting OGW
Thanks for your reply. So according to that post by mbqb11, does the eur-chf pin falls into categorie 1 or 3? I mean if you consider the longer term trend then I would guess categorie 3 right? Sebastien
You could say both but i will choose 3 When price action is viewed from the weekly it is a retracement of the Uptrend. Form the shorter time frame perspective of the daily then you could say it was a 1 as it comes at the end of a down trend.
  • #320
  • Nov 28, 2007 10:52am Nov 28, 2007 10:52am
Quoting ademac
You could say both but i will choose 3 When price action is viewed from the weekly it is a retracement of the Uptrend. Form the shorter time frame perspective of the daily then you could say it was a 1 as it comes at the end of a down trend.
What one can do is when the PB is counter trend u can risk less of what u wud risk usually. so suppose if u risk 2% in a "normal" trade, then when PB like the one in usd/chf shows up u can risk 1% of capital. btw r u still in the trade or did u exit? i think trailing sl in + pips wud be the way to go. with so much 'bad" us news u never know when stocks r gonna turn around.
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