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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #40,561
  • Nov 22, 2007 12:50pm Nov 22, 2007 12:50pm
here are things looks like me cable is going DOWN yeah for comming week it can go up but right now it will sure go down much - in my openion
  • #40,562
  • Nov 22, 2007 12:59pm Nov 22, 2007 12:59pm
Quoting cesarnc
You guys looking on shorts based on techis or fundis?

I ask because euro (and other dollar pairs) is strong and cable is going to the opposite direction (EG broke 72 already), which puts me clueless on this pair.
I'm basing my trades on techs. Fundamentals only get me broke when I try my hand at adding that to my trading repertoire. Through my experience, the cable and euro usually go hand in hand, but I just don't see them coinciding until we see further retracement on the cable. After that, I could see it rising again. What are your thoughts on it (clueless or not)? I'll post a chart of what I am seeing in a moment. It's facing resistance by overlapping dynamic fib levels right now (system I am using) and I don't see that it will break through, but rather make a drop at this area. It just seems to be glued to the double 00s.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #40,563
  • Edited 1:05pm Nov 22, 2007 1:03pm | Edited 1:05pm
Since we are talking about the immdeiate future I am posting my 1 hour charts. If you want I will post the 4 hour and dailies afterwards. As you'll see, all of the EMAs are hovering above where price is currently, which is going to make it difficult for the pair to move upwards instead of down. In the coming days, I am looking for it to make lows in the area of 2.0400. I will try my hand at looking into the news and see if anything could possibly coincide with my theory on that side of things.

We will probably move up a couple of pips to 2.0630 before moving back downwards from this area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: le pound down movement..gif Size: 14 KB
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #40,564
  • Nov 22, 2007 1:17pm Nov 22, 2007 1:17pm
Quoting mike w
I'm basing my trades on techs. Fundamentals only get me broke when I try my hand at adding that to my trading repertoire. Through my experience, the cable and euro usually go hand in hand, but I just don't see them coinciding until we see further retracement on the cable. After that, I could see it rising again. What are your thoughts on it (clueless or not)? I'll post a chart of what I am seeing in a moment. It's facing resistance by overlapping dynamic fib levels right now (system I am using) and I don't see that it will break through, but rather make a drop at this area. It just seems to be glued to the double 00s.
My thought is Euro 1.50. Period. When? I don't know. Question, how cable will behave? Last time euro was soaring from mid 1.3s, cable stalled and out of the blue soared to 2.1.

I'm out of dollar pairs for quite some time. I sure want to grab a piece of what is to come. I just can't see what is to come lol...
  • #40,565
  • Nov 22, 2007 1:21pm Nov 22, 2007 1:21pm
Quoting cesarnc
My thought is Euro 1.50. Period. When? I don't know. Question, how cable will behave? Last time euro was soaring from mid 1.3s, cable stalled and out of the blue soared to 2.1.

I'm out of dollar pairs for quite some time. I sure want to grab a piece of what is to come. I just can't see what is to come lol...
ya, i think 1.50 is coming for euro too, but when? I really have no clue.
  • #40,566
  • Nov 22, 2007 1:28pm Nov 22, 2007 1:28pm
Quoting cesarnc
My thought is Euro 1.50. Period. When? I don't know. Question, how cable will behave? Last time euro was soaring from mid 1.3s, cable stalled and out of the blue soared to 2.1.

I'm out of dollar pairs for quite some time. I sure want to grab a piece of what is to come. I just can't see what is to come lol...
I agree with you on that for the longer term. I've thought the Euro would do this for some time and now that everyone is bandwagoning the idea, it's just going to add more power to the movement. It's only 150 pips away now so I could see it happening sooner than later. Once that 1.5000 is hit though, watch out. That's where a lot of take profits are at (bandwagon effect along with double 00s). I would look to see quite a bit of retracement after that for the price to reach a reasonable level to buy again. If I see anything in terms of tradability short at that area, I might take the trade even though it is countertrend (which I don't normally do very often). This is because of the fact that the power of the move will be hindered fairly badly once everyone takes their profits; allowing the bears to come into play again.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #40,567
  • Nov 22, 2007 1:31pm Nov 22, 2007 1:31pm
Quoting peterM
ya, i think 1.50 is coming for euro too, but when? I really have no clue.
England was kicked out of the Euro Cup. Might have weighted on cable somehow

Brazil 2 x 1 Uruguay yesterday. Nothing to celebrate. It was one of the worst matches Brazil has ever played. Disgusting.
  • #40,568
  • Nov 22, 2007 1:59pm Nov 22, 2007 1:59pm
call me crazy, mad, lunatic, imbecile, but I see eurodollar at 2.50 in a couple of years. Let your profits run.

Quoting mike w
I agree with you on that for the longer term. I've thought the Euro would do this for some time and now that everyone is bandwagoning the idea, it's just going to add more power to the movement. It's only 150 pips away now so I could see it happening sooner than later. Once that 1.5000 is hit though, watch out. That's where a lot of take profits are at (bandwagon effect along with double 00s). I would look to see quite a bit of retracement after that for the price to reach a reasonable level to buy again. If I see anything in terms of tradability short at that area, I might take the trade even though it is countertrend (which I don't normally do very often). This is because of the fact that the power of the move will be hindered fairly badly once everyone takes their profits; allowing the bears to come into play again.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #40,569
  • Nov 22, 2007 2:06pm Nov 22, 2007 2:06pm
Quoting cgldsmth
call me crazy, mad, lunatic, imbecile, but I see eurodollar at 2.50 in a couple of years. Let your profits run.
I'm not sure about 2.50 but I do see higher levels in store for it. I can't hold a trade for over a year. I would go crazy trying to do so. That's why I just stick to weekly and down. With that agreement, buying on dips is a prime strategy if your confident in it. In the meantime though, I'm looking for smaller moves to gain money on.

When I said the bears would be able to come into play on the Euro after 1.50 is hit, I meant that they would be able to create the dip in price, creating the retracement needed to push forward.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #40,570
  • Nov 22, 2007 2:22pm Nov 22, 2007 2:22pm
It moved up to test resistance and now it's time to move back down in my opinion.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #40,571
  • Nov 22, 2007 2:53pm Nov 22, 2007 2:53pm
What are anyone's thoughts on Black Friday that have gone through it before? You know, like last years insanity that broke out on Thanksgiving night and into the next day followed by a new trend until the year's end? I am asking this to the traders with experience more than just a year. I am going to look into historical charts now and see what I can dig up from years that have past.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #40,572
  • Nov 22, 2007 2:54pm Nov 22, 2007 2:54pm
Quoting mike w
It moved up to test resistance and now it's time to move back down in my opinion.

How I wish you were right man !!!
  • #40,573
  • Nov 22, 2007 2:58pm Nov 22, 2007 2:58pm
Quoting JanPoko
How I wish you were right man !!!
I could be right or wrong, I don't know yet. It moved up to test it and is still testing. You can't base a trade on 1 to 2 hours. If it moves past and makes a clean breach of the resistance then I'll know that I was wrong and I will move on. If not, then I am still in the trade through the consolidation. As I said earlier, we would test the thirties and we are. Now, only time will tell. I hope the best for your trade as well as mine!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #40,574
  • Nov 22, 2007 3:04pm Nov 22, 2007 3:04pm
Where's your SL, if I may ask?
  • #40,575
  • Nov 22, 2007 3:11pm Nov 22, 2007 3:11pm
Quoting JanPoko
Where's your SL, if I may ask?
2.07 is my 'disaster' stop. Other than that, I normally close my trades manually if I see the market reverse on me, which it very well could; especially with the thoughts of last years black friday fresh in my mind. If it does indeed do that, I will close out manually for a loss and then reassess the situation. Once I do this, I will either get back into the market IF I see it as tradable, but if not I will stay out. This whole area is acting as resistance and support and so we will stick around here for a bit (Just my thought on it). Then I will see what happens from there - win or lose.

From the sound of your post earlier saying you wish I was right, it sounded like you were in a short trade as well. If you are, what are your thoughts on the situation as it is?
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #40,576
  • Nov 22, 2007 3:26pm Nov 22, 2007 3:26pm
Well, I am still a newbie in Forex, with little experience, trying to catch as much wisdom as possible from you - experienced traders.

Thats why I would not dare to articulate any analysis so far.

I entered short position based upon my estimation of SR, fortunately with a very small unit. Still, since I am trading a small live account, every loss is quite painful for me, at least psychologically.
  • #40,577
  • Nov 22, 2007 3:50pm Nov 22, 2007 3:50pm
Quoting JanPoko
Well, I am still a newbie in Forex, with little experience, trying to catch as much wisdom as possible from you - experienced traders.

Thats why I would not dare to articulate any analysis so far.

I entered short position based upon my estimation of SR, fortunately with a very small unit. Still, since I am trading a small live account, every loss is quite painful for me, at least psychologically.
The only way to gain knowldege of the market is to create your own analysis and learn from it. Trust me, when I started posting, I sounded like a complete ass and still do at times. lol Anyways, I've learned from it and so it was worth it to me. Without going through that and learning from my pros and cons, I wouldn't be posting this now. If you have any questions about anything, ask! Everyone is helpful.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #40,578
  • Nov 22, 2007 3:51pm Nov 22, 2007 3:51pm
And there she goes...hopefully for a good run now.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #40,579
  • Nov 22, 2007 3:56pm Nov 22, 2007 3:56pm
there looks like a clear bullish channel on the hourly so I'd be very wary of a short right now.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #40,580
  • Nov 22, 2007 4:12pm Nov 22, 2007 4:12pm
Quoting peterM
ya, i think 1.50 is coming for euro too, but when? I really have no clue.
I think we should see it sometime next week.
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