Cable Update (GBPUSD)

GBP/USD: High Volatility Continues, MPC Minutes Next Week London, November 16. Cable kicked off today"s European session in a volatile state and is trading in a similar vein ahead of the week-end 16:00GMT London fix. Having tested 2.0500 offers on the back of disappointing US industrial production data, GBP/USD retreated by three-quarters-of-a-cent to the middle of today"s intra-day range. 2.0352 defines the base of that range.
Next week"s key UK event risk is Wednesday"s publication of minutes from the November 7/8 BoE MPC meeting. BoE Deputy Governor Lomax is the most likely candidate to have joined Blanchflower in voting for a 25bp cut. Lomax voted against 3 of the 5 rate hikes delivered between August 2006 and July this year.
The risk of a 25bp UK base rate cut to 5.5% as early as next month has risen on the back of yesterday"s disappointing UK retail sales data, which followed Wednesday"s dovish BoE inflation report. If there is a UK rate cut on December 6, it is unlikely to be a one-off "insurance" move as per August 2005 (when the base rate was cut by 25bp to 4.5%).

GBP/USD: Reaches Inflection Point by Medium-Term Trend-Line New York, November 16. Cable has now reached critical medium-term trend-line support dating back to August, and as such, moves over the next few days should provide a clearer picture of the direction the pair decides to take. A break and close below the trend-line support which comes in just under today"s lows at 2.0330 would trigger a fresh round of selling to open an immediate retreat back towards the 2.00 handle.
Considering the moves of late, today"s session has been relatively quiet thus far with the market not seen reacting to any of the USD data from earlier this morning. However, the outlook for the UK economy has shifted considerably over the past several weeks with the markets now pricing in a decent chance for a rate cut as early as the next meeting.
UK building society Nationwide was in the headlines overnight with their forecasts showing flat annual house price growth for the country as a whole by late 2008. "Economic tailwinds are turning into headwinds and house price inflation is expected to drop from the current rate of 9.7 percent to zero percent by this time next year." This has been seen weighing on the pair somewhat, with yesterday"s much weaker than expected retail sales data also hampering GBP gains. This was the first negative retail sales reading for 8 months

Hi Quicksilver, may I know what is your TP on this long ? Thank you

cable going up!!!

Someones cast a spell on it! lol

FOREX: Iran Enters Into Dollar Debate San Francisco, November 16. There remains a very wide divergence on opinions on the USD levels with IMF Strauss- Kahn stating yesterday that it could go lower. Today, US Treasury Paulson reiterates, similar to comments yesterday, that a strong USD is in the US interests and that he has been fairly consistent on the USD policy. Even Iran is getting involved now, which may or may not have something to do with increased pressure for a vote on sanctions that have been delayed since it did not meet China"s schedule. That being said, Iran wants OPEC to mention the weak USD. What is interesting is that the comment from Iran comes after it moved to have Japanese companies pay for oil in JPY and after their reports that they apparently had divested themselves on their USD holdings, largely because of US banking restrictions on Iraq.
USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are rising sharply with stops triggered on the break of 111.00 on USD/JPY and stops triggered on EUR/JPY as well

Intresting article - Can China Dump the Dollar?
http://www.fundmasteryblog.com/2007/...mp-the-dollar/

580 or maybe lower.

.oO(i wonder if its going to be coming back down again)

me going to stay out, i made a few pips today
dont want it to take them back! lol

which it often does!

Agree. Week over... Nice to see how this daily pin-bar is going to playout on Monday. Same for GJ which has put a double bottom today (H4).

Nice weekend to all...

FOREX: No Mention of Dollar in Final OPEC Communique San Francisco, November 16. French wires are reporting - Pas De Mention du Dollar Dans Communique Final, or no mention of the dollar in the final communique. The push to focus on the USD weakness came from Iran and was seconded by Venezuela, both countries that have dumped the USD from their reserve holdings, and with the move seen politically motivated.
The news of the discussion was apparently not meant to be leaked according to Thomson Financial news but was accidentally beamed to the media room until security guards pulled the plug. The Saudi oil minister said, "We have concern for the continued depreciation of the US dollar and we want to instruct our finance ministers to safeguard our continued purchasing power and revenue." The Saudi Arabia Foreign minister stating that Iran"s request should be treated with caution since it could weaken the dollar further.
USD/JPY trades at 110.82 while EUR/USD trades at 1.4662.

GMT November 16 Cable opened in New York trading 2.0440 following the
overnight bounce from critical medium-term trend-line support. Steady broad
based USD selling, carry demand and disappointing US data releases in the form
of capital flows and industrial production were seen as the main driver for the
pair"s positive price action with the rate trading as high as 2.0530 ahead of a
minor bout of consolidation into the afternoon. However, recent data out from
the UK could not be ignored with the pair failing to garner any significant
upside momentum. UK building society Nationwide was in the headlines overnight
with their forecasts showing flat annual house price growth for the country as a
whole by late 2008.
Next week"s key UK event risk is Wednesday"s publication of the minutes from
the November 7/8 BoE MPC meeting. BoE Deputy Governor Lomax is the most likely
candidate to have joined Blanchflower in voting for a 25bp cut. Lomax voted
against 3 of the 5 rate hikes delivered between August 2006 and July this year

21:01 CFTC Commitment Data Released 16 Nov for 13 Nov

CAD/USD Net Long 46,723 from Net long 63,588 the Week of Nov 6

CAD longs continue to pare their long positions which was reflected in the
bounce to 0.9900. CAD bears are looking for a push above parity in coming weeks,
towards 1.0100.

CHF/USD Net Long 15,503 from Net Long 2,419 the Week of Nov 6

Unwinding of carry trades continues on risk aversion, fostering the largest CHF
long positions since Jan 2004. The largest CHF longs in recent years was Jan
2003 at 26K suggesting only limited room for more CHF gains, which could fuel a
USD/CHF bounce in coming weeks.

GBP/USD Net Long 43,625 from Net Long 60,326 the Week of Nov 6

GBP longs are easing and with signs growing of a UK slowdown, the risk is for a
move back to 1.9700 is eyed in coming sessions.

JPY/USD Net Long 20,796 from Net Short -8,897 the Week of Nov 6

Longs are the highest on JPY contracts since June 2006, but signs are growing of
a slow down in Japan which should limit JPY gains ahead of 109.00. A bounce to
113.00 is seen possible.

EUR/USD Net Long 69,429 from Net Long 76,048 the Week of Nov 6

EUR longs have held steady for the last few weeks as recent EUR gains start to
stall. Risk for a deeper pullback to 1.4400 is eyed as specs pare their
positions ahead of year end due to increasingly illiquid conditions.

AUD/USD Net Long 32,828 from Net Long 50,637 the Week of Nov 6

AUD/USD longs are the lowest since Sept 27 as the market pares carry trades.
Risk is growing for further position paring and a fall to 0.8600.

NZD/USD Net Long 10,423 from Net Long 13,381 the week of Nov 6

NZD/USD longs have eased, and are the lowest since Sept 27 with risk for another
decline to 0.7400 on heightened risk aversion and yr end position-squaring.

MXN/USD - Net Long 34,239 Net Long 53,575 the week of Nov 6
Risk aversion has fuelled a paring of MXN longs which are the lowest since Oct
16th. Risk is for a USD/MXN move back to 11.0350.

:surprised

I love fear, it makes lots of pips really fast.

[quote=tim1234;1718707]21:01 CFTC Commitment Data Released 16 Nov for 13 Nov



GBP/USD Net Long 43,625 from Net Long 60,326 the Week of Nov 6

GBP longs are easing and with signs growing of a UK slowdown, the risk is for a move back to 1.9700 is eyed in coming sessions.


Good, Still have my shorts open from 2.1088