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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #3,801
  • Dec 28, 2006 6:46pm Dec 28, 2006 6:46pm
happy holidays mike.

regards.
Quoting mbqb11
just wanted to wish you all a happy(drunken) safe new year. Good luck with the pound tomm hope you all go out with a bang, in the good way. Since I had a great day(my bang), and could make arguments for both ways on the USD; I am done trading till 2007 man that seems far away!!! Hope you all find continued success in this exciting market.



best,
Mike

Oh yea this is my 300th post so now its a real party
Right teaching produces right believing leads to right living. - J.P
  • #3,802
  • Dec 28, 2006 6:52pm Dec 28, 2006 6:52pm
Quoting Qwiktrader
I would love to see this sucker hit around 9650 before partying on down to the 9500s. We'll have to wait and see but I've been holding onto a long position as well for a little bit now and am hoping for that move to exit and then short!
The word hope belongs nowhere in this thread or even more importantly in your head.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,803
  • Dec 28, 2006 7:08pm Dec 28, 2006 7:08pm
Hello Guys and Gals,


Been out of the loop a few hours but really like the way the charts are setting up. Longer view is cable still confined in daily descending channel. As reference EUR/USD broke out up and is currently doing a re-test. Cables latest 4 hr channel has been violated to the upside and a re-test is possible. Shorter term a descending wedge could form as the cable stays around 9600 or goes to test the 9560/70 area. If this scenario plays out I expect a long to the 9700 vicinity. If upper barrier on daily is violated (9705/15) Katy bar the door as the northward move accelerates !!
  • #3,804
  • Dec 28, 2006 7:12pm Dec 28, 2006 7:12pm
Quoting lonespruce
Here is what my chart looks like. 15min time frame. If we can get through 1.9606 we shouldn't have a problem getting to 1.9562

Moneymaster - you're obviously a wise and rich man... I wish I had your way with words - I'd be better able to explain my reasoning then
Agreed. We always measure another's intelligence by the degree to which the other agrees with us. what... what....what'd he say??

But lonespruce, you omitted the part where cable first rises to 9650 tonight before dropping to 9562....key words - rise then fall, rise then fall.
  • #3,805
  • Dec 28, 2006 7:17pm Dec 28, 2006 7:17pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
It should turn between 9609 and 9605...
Turned at 9606.....
  • #3,806
  • Dec 28, 2006 7:22pm Dec 28, 2006 7:22pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Agreed. We always measure another's intelligence by the degree to which the other agrees with us. what... what....what'd he say??

But lonespruce, you omitted the part where cable first rises to 9650 tonight before dropping to 9562....key words - rise then fall, rise then fall.
No rise just fall - and all the way down to 9506
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,807
  • Dec 28, 2006 7:38pm Dec 28, 2006 7:38pm
Quoting fxkenny
Hello Guys and Gals,
Thanks for acknowledging the opposite gender in your greeting!!

Quoting fxkenny
Longer view is cable still confined in daily descending channel.
Agreed.
Quoting fxkenny
Cables latest 4 hr channel has been violated to the upside and a re-test is possible.
Cesarnc's Channel, broken to the upside.....agreed.
Quoting fxkenny
Shorter term a descending wedge could form as the cable stays around 9600 or goes to test the 9560/70 area..
Kenny, hold up...you missed something. Sure 9550-9560 is the new support but what about tonight's 30 pip uptick to 9650, then down 100 pips to the 9550-9560. Rise then fall.

Quoting fxkenny
If this scenario plays out I expect a long to the 9700 vicinity. If upper barrier on daily is violated (9705/15) Katy bar the door as the northward move accelerates !!
Sounds like EWT to me, but I don't expect a long like that this year, rather the continued short which would be consistent with your earlier comment regarding the "daily descending channel".
  • #3,808
  • Dec 28, 2006 7:47pm Dec 28, 2006 7:47pm
Quoting Leugimp
No rise just fall - and all the way down to 9506
Leugimp, fxkenny and lonespruce have spoken.

So it has been written; so it shan't be done! Traders, since you don't see the 30 pip "long" for tonight, I take it your shorts are placed for this massive fall, breaking the 9550 barrier at 61 fib, breached only once the last 8 days.
  • #3,809
  • Dec 28, 2006 7:49pm Dec 28, 2006 7:49pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Turned at 9606.....
I am neither nor disagreeing with you. The custom indicator I am currently using is only giving me a qualified down, so I have nothing really to go with. I will not trade anything less than a fully good signal, not just a partially good one.

That being said, I just wanted to ask on what basis you see cable going up. Is this based on a particular indicator or trading system, is it based on fundamentals or is it intuition (that actually might be one of the best ways to trade, I am starting to think).

Thank you for helping me to understand. Currently I am staying out of trading this pair until I get a clear sense of direction.
  • #3,810
  • Dec 28, 2006 7:51pm Dec 28, 2006 7:51pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Agreed. We always measure another's intelligence by the degree to which the other agrees with us. what... what....what'd he say??

But lonespruce, you omitted the part where cable first rises to 9650 tonight before dropping to 9562....key words - rise then fall, rise then fall.
Time will tell. I guess either way we both get to be right
  • #3,811
  • Dec 28, 2006 7:56pm Dec 28, 2006 7:56pm
Quoting moonchild
That being said, I just wanted to ask on what basis you see cable going up. Is this based on a particular indicator or trading system, is it based on fundamentals or is it intuition (that actually might be one of the best ways to trade, I am starting to think).
Moonchild,

The intuition thing is valid to some extent. Over time you develop a "feel" for the market. However this strategy is based on the charts, trendlines, PA, and a little Bagovino thrown in for good measure. For a complete explanation, see my post #3786 in this thread from earlier this evening.
  • #3,812
  • Dec 28, 2006 8:18pm Dec 28, 2006 8:18pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Leugimp, fxkenny and lonespruce have spoken.

So it has been written; so it shan't be done! Traders, since you don't see the 30 pip "long" for tonight, I take it your shorts are placed for this massive fall, breaking the 9550 barrier at 61 fib, breached only once the last 8 days.

Money,

My trades are usually for small profits and even smaller losses - Although I believe it will go there, I will be scalping along the way for 10-30 pips at a time in either direction I see fit, however if I catch a free ride down to that level, I'll surely take it and be ready for it, just as I will be ready if it takes off the other way. On 12/18 it broke down through the 12 day low and came back above. on 12/20 it made a ten day high. Alot of people were holding onto their longs as per the COT report banking on a breakout to 2.000 or a double top. Longs have still been strong as the extreme optimism helped them hold on. Notice the big move days after downswings and the subsequent action. Just couldn't get up there. Also, since the top back on 12/1/06 we have seen a close over the daily pivot points on only 4 of the last 18 days. Everytime there is a close above the daily PP, the downmove resumes and the optimism gets weaker yet more desperate, which is what causes those huge up days. We are now at a point where 2 days ago, price barely closed above the Daily pivot and yesterday closed well above it. Buyers have already gotten out of this last leg whatever they're going to get and I believ that as soon as a slight drop occurs, It will just gain to much steam as people unwind for the new year. Not to mention the fed has been warning of the still existing threat of inflation, which the market has been ignoring to this point, as well as the evolution of incoming data. The trend seems strong because its ability to withstand these shocks, but as optimism begins to dissipate, the trend will begin to reverse. Today is the last day of the year so its as good as any day for this rare break of the 50's to happen. Or it could just skyrocket. Money isn't made in doing this, but is sure is fun if you're right.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,813
  • Dec 28, 2006 8:23pm Dec 28, 2006 8:23pm
Money Master:


Always try to be polite: I.E. acknowledge there are many good traders that comprise both sexes.
I appreciate you say I might be using EWT. Studied it extensively and found my small intellectuability was only able to interpret down to a W.A.G.(Wild Ass Guess)
From many hours of chart time and watching the related moves I have developed a sense for the market I am yet able to explain. It works for me so I go with it !!
I actually believe at this point we should go down before up. We can experience a nice day without violating the daily channel. Daily channel break will not come into play until above 9705/15. I am not entering trades until Europe starts to have their say. My plan is not set in stone, but subject to interpretation as the European/London session gets underway.
Granted we are in a very thin market as most sane individuals would be living their life. But, hey, if we can make a buck, why not ???
  • #3,814
  • Dec 28, 2006 8:38pm Dec 28, 2006 8:38pm
Quoting fxkenny
Money Master:


I appreciate you say I might be using EWT. Studied it extensively and found my small intellectuability was only able to interpret down to a W.A.G.(Wild Ass Guess)
...
Granted we are in a very thin market as most sane individuals would be living their life. But, hey, if we can make a buck, why not ???
Great attitude dude, and I really appreciate your manners. Seems like so many start off saying "Hey Guys!" and I'm like thinking okay maybe the majority of traders are men but there are women trading also. BTW the sane people are in the Caribbean or Cabos or Cote D'azur, or something like that!!

And the W.A.G. piece!!!

So now all we have to do is work on the Rise and Fall piece!! Thanks man, appreciate your comments.
  • #3,815
  • Dec 28, 2006 8:38pm Dec 28, 2006 8:38pm
also, usd has been trading above its 20 day mov avg against most pairs except for aussie, probably due to gold situation, and finding strong support there. For cable today, that number is 9630. Will be suprised if it breaks out above this level, but of course it is important to be prepared for it.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,816
  • Dec 28, 2006 8:52pm Dec 28, 2006 8:52pm
I think today should look more or less like this
Attached Image
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,817
  • Dec 28, 2006 8:53pm Dec 28, 2006 8:53pm
Quoting Leugimp
Money,

Everytime there is a close above the daily PP, the downmove resumes and the optimism gets weaker yet more desperate, which is what causes those huge up days. We are now at a point where 2 days ago, price barely closed above the Daily pivot and yesterday closed well above it. Buyers have already gotten out of this last leg whatever they're going to get and I believ that as soon as a slight drop occurs, It will just gain to much steam as people unwind for the new year.
So no fuel remaining for my little 30 pips?? You could be right L, as I just noticed price bumped against the 38 fib at 9625 several times in the last six hours, largely to no avail (I removed the pivot indicator and worked with fibs). So if you're correct and there's no energy to get beyond the fib, how the heck can it get to 9650 (which is beginning to look farther and farther away).
Quoting Leugimp

Today is the last day of the year so its as good as any day for this rare break of the 50's to happen. Or it could just skyrocket. Money isn't made in doing this, but is sure is fun if you're right.
Last bit of light: 5 ema is bouncing off 12 ema, price moved to withn 5 pips of the 38 fib (1.9625), and in another 4 hours or so could all converge at the new TL (all on the one hour chart). That may start the short. 9650 is getting farther and farther away.

If on top of all this, the moon is full also, then I'm sold!
  • #3,818
  • Dec 28, 2006 8:56pm Dec 28, 2006 8:56pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter

If on top of all this, the moon is full also, then I'm sold!
you f-n kill me
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,819
  • Dec 28, 2006 9:01pm Dec 28, 2006 9:01pm
uh oh!!
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,820
  • Dec 28, 2006 9:04pm Dec 28, 2006 9:04pm
Here we go again, bumping up against that 38 fib. 9622....9621.
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