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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #3,541
  • Dec 27, 2006 11:40am Dec 27, 2006 11:40am
Quoting fixme1too
The next tp area is looking more and more like 9612 area before we continue downward.Over all move remains short.

fixme1too,
Do you mean 9512?
  • #3,542
  • Dec 27, 2006 11:42am Dec 27, 2006 11:42am
9612



Quoting sarama001
fixme1too,
Do you mean 9512?
  • #3,543
  • Dec 27, 2006 12:07pm Dec 27, 2006 12:07pm
Quoting cesarnc
2 hours stuck between 9560 and 9550.

Looks like it already went down all it wanted... I'm still short, but oozing patience by the seconds...

What do you think?
Cesarnc,

I think 9550 is a strong 61 fib (drawn from Dec 18 low of 9430 to Dec 20 high of 9750). Today is the fourth time it's been tested since Dec 21st, with only one breakthrough yesterday, Dec 26 between 17:00 and 18:00 GMT. More likely to bounce than break it today.
  • #3,544
  • Dec 27, 2006 12:20pm Dec 27, 2006 12:20pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Cesarnc,

I think 9550 is a strong 61 fib (drawn from Dec 18 low of 9430 to Dec 20 high of 9750). Today is the fourth time it's been tested since Dec 21st, with only one breakthrough yesterday, Dec 26 between 17:00 and 18:00 GMT. More likely to bounce than break it today.
MoneyMaster, are you looking for it to turn upwards at 9550? thanks for all your advice....
  • #3,545
  • Dec 27, 2006 12:21pm Dec 27, 2006 12:21pm
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Cesarnc,

I think 9550 is a strong 61 fib (drawn from Dec 18 low of 9430 to Dec 20 high of 9750). Today is the fourth time it's been tested since Dec 21st, with only one breakthrough yesterday, Dec 26 between 17:00 and 18:00 GMT. More likely to bounce than break it today.
Yeah, I'm out... lousy day... News went against me, that down jump, you know... From the news on just zig-zag around 9670 and 9660.

Now freaking retracement to take place during night, possibly. I'm in front of this computer since 8GMT (6:00 my time). No way I'll handle trading the retracement...
Lousy day.....
  • #3,546
  • Dec 27, 2006 12:28pm Dec 27, 2006 12:28pm
Worst of all,

Price is sitting RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE of the channel. I mean, if the channel was exhausted, I would set & forget the retracement... Problem is that if it decides go on performing the channel, we're talking about 50 pips down!

Lousy day...
  • #3,547
  • Dec 27, 2006 12:31pm Dec 27, 2006 12:31pm
yes i must agree,...can someone pls advise what the hell s&p 500 is doing,...is it going to moon??,...& ill put my trades off for 14 days,...i must get familiar with euros first
its just money
  • #3,548
  • Dec 27, 2006 1:00pm Dec 27, 2006 1:00pm
I'm getting indicator for long already - RSI, EMAs and Bollinger Bands......

Other people's ideas/thoughts&signals are mostly welcome...
  • #3,549
  • Dec 27, 2006 1:11pm Dec 27, 2006 1:11pm
Hi

any hope for downtrend ? I have an open short position @1.9557 .

thanks
  • #3,550
  • Dec 27, 2006 1:12pm Dec 27, 2006 1:12pm
Ive long on price actione from 1.9565
  • #3,551
  • Dec 27, 2006 1:20pm Dec 27, 2006 1:20pm
Quoting cesarnc
I'm getting indicator for long already - RSI, EMAs and Bollinger Bands......

Other people's ideas/thoughts&signals are mostly welcome...
Sorry I stop trading after 12est, but yes my indicators also started to turn long but haven't yet. My TP was hit at 9563 for 40 pips profit.
  • #3,552
  • Dec 27, 2006 1:23pm Dec 27, 2006 1:23pm
Quoting cesarnc
I'm getting indicator for long already - RSI, EMAs and Bollinger Bands......

Other people's ideas/thoughts&signals are mostly welcome...
I am getting signs of a long coming our way. However, the signals are very slow to develop as they have been all week. I am staying flat for now.
  • #3,553
  • Dec 27, 2006 1:25pm Dec 27, 2006 1:25pm
if i look into future BPH7 u would see...thats supp is good @ 19567-70, and resistance to, but i wouldnt short it...ok, maybe for a little slice right now
its just money
  • #3,554
  • Dec 27, 2006 2:07pm Dec 27, 2006 2:07pm
Updated...
http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28/cesarnc/dec27.jpg
The big picture

The actual is the 3rd channel with weekly duration. Unlike the previous two, the actual channel shows a shorter price range because of a) abnormal trade week/lower volume or b) exhaustion

Actual channel is already 8 days old, what makes the breakout alarm to ring. A next pull up to 1.9730 area is likely to happen.

Next two days might be of low volume either, no reason why not (but, who really knows?) Therefore, the push up is possibly in the oven waiting for next week and the presence of a critical mass required to push it up with momentum.

I'm not intending to teach here, please. However, what I see shows a critical moment for Cable, where it might be no room for further "channel fooling around". Thus, the search for the new "platform" where Cable is gonna hang, should be in our minds.

I'm also new at this and like many others still learning. So I'd really appreciate if the more experienced fellows here share their opinions and suggest changes to my point-of-view - to refine it or change it completely...

Thanks
  • #3,555
  • Dec 27, 2006 2:22pm Dec 27, 2006 2:22pm
cesarnc

thanks for that analysis, just thought I would throw this up too. I try to keep it real simple when I post a chart. It is just another way to look at things. This is the 4 Hour view showing what were stuck in right now. A lot of people are trend traders, but I like to play with what I am given. So I enjoy when pairs range and I can play bounces with price action.

Thanks for all the interesting views in this thread,
Mike
Attached Image
  • #3,556
  • Dec 27, 2006 2:26pm Dec 27, 2006 2:26pm
Quoting mbqb11
cesarnc

thanks for that analysis, just thought I would throw this up too. I try to keep it real simple when I post a chart. It is just another way to look at things. This is the 4 Hour view showing what were stuck in right now. A lot of people are trend traders, but I like to play with what I am given. So I enjoy when pairs range and I can play bounces with price action.

Thanks for all the interesting views in this thread,
Mike
Thanks a lot Mike... Question: what would you expect next? Another bounce at the 38 fib?

I'm not trying to read the future here. But I'd like to have scenarios to work with, based on "got here, ok - not let's wait for this"....

Thanks again
  • #3,557
  • Dec 27, 2006 2:27pm Dec 27, 2006 2:27pm
Cesarnc, Looking at even longer term charts your estimation of 9730 could be correct. The daily is showing a slowly descending channel that corresponds with your chart over the last 3 weeks. This channel could be construed as a bull flag as it follows a significant up move. If we have seen the low for today and work our way up we are forming a nice triangle to possibly propel us to the top of the daily channel which I show @ 9722. The break of the triangle would be accomplished in the vicinity of 9620/30. I tend to favor a break up from the triangle as it was initiated with upward movement. Hope this is not too confusing. Just one of the many observations I make during the course of a trading day.
  • #3,558
  • Dec 27, 2006 2:32pm Dec 27, 2006 2:32pm
Quoting cesarnc
Thanks a lot Mike... Question: what would you expect next? Another bounce at the 38 fib?

I'm not trying to read the future here. But I'd like to have scenarios to work with, based on "got here, ok - not let's wait for this"....

Thanks again
hehe ya I like to leave the future to the fortune tellers

Well in my head I am looking for a bounce back to the support line, but in the mean time I will wait for clues in price action suggesting differently. We could see a move up to the current channel as you have posted and then perhaps back down. It is not surprising to me that we are stuck in this range, with the holiday market and time of year etc. I just know in this type of thin market not to let any type of greed take over. We gotta just take what the market is handing us in times like this.

Best always,
Mike
  • #3,559
  • Dec 27, 2006 2:34pm Dec 27, 2006 2:34pm
Quoting fxkenny
Cesarnc, Looking at even longer term charts your estimation of 9730 could be correct. The daily is showing a slowly descending channel that corresponds with your chart over the last 3 weeks. This channel could be construed as a bull flag as it follows a significant up move. If we have seen the low for today and work our way up we are forming a nice triangle to possibly propel us to the top of the daily channel which I show @ 9722. The break of the triangle would be accomplished in the vicinity of 9620/30. I tend to favor a break up from the triangle as it was initiated with upward movement. Hope this is not too confusing. Just one of the many observations I make during the course of a trading day.
Thanks fxkenny...This is what you mean, right?
http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28...7-triangle.jpg
  • #3,560
  • Dec 27, 2006 2:40pm Dec 27, 2006 2:40pm
Hi guys, I just spent the last hour catching up on this very interesting thread.

Here's a different pitch. What we may see forming is an inverted head-and-shoulders. The neckline is around 9735. If the next low does not make it beyond 9450, or particularly does not break 9430, then the resulting up-lift should go back to ~9735.

If cable goes below 9430 then we have a down-channel, similarly if the retracement does not go higher than 9720 (maybe 9700) then also a down-channel, imho.

Incidentally my 4-hour chart has the current down-drift only 4 days old, so maybe a bit soon for a strong up-shift. Anyhow, a break tomorrow below todays low of 9527 (on my chart at least) would seem good for at least 9460.

As MM would say, only an observation - not advice. . . . . or something like that
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