Cable Update (GBPUSD)

good to see everyone at least making money, see you all later

9560 down for the count

just because we hit 9550?

Possible bounce coming within the hour.

Man I just woke up to see I got NAILED, LOL! I thought for sure new home sales were gonna be weak I mean come on it's the end of the year and the real estate market has been in the trash can lately. Someone must be cooking the books on this one!

definetly possible if anyone (country rather) would do that it would be the USA, they are full of the crooks and greedy politicians, but also the companys have been offering new appliances and lots of upgrades as well as lowering the prices on houses so it was really up in the air

why do u say that , sorry for the question, trying to learn?

im still in 40 pips... passed my 61.8 fibo and still going

You probably were right, but they'll revise it next month. That is the difference between being right and making money. Even if your thoughts are proven right, you can still lose. This actually happens on a short term basis as well. Its not just predicting where price will be x bars from now, but it is also "which route will it take to get there". If it looks like its not going straight there or like its going to take many twists and turns, well either you have some dramamine on hand or you wait for the express bus.

murrey math, rsi, time of day, price action, cross pairs, EWT and cable behavior, but over all move remains down. Technically based on EWT the bounce should be at 9531.

(sigh) closed GBPJPY short for 6 pips... and to think I had 10 times as much 15 mins before the news announcement. There is still a divergence on the 4H chart but we could have one more leg up before a trend change. It's still something to watch out for, lucky my entry timing saved me from a loss.

I suppose it was a slow day for everyone.

I hate it when things are not moving. Makes everything so dull. I always make mistakes during the waiting period. I just need to learn patience!!

Hi fixme1too,
got a trendline there, too, that should connect.
Wanted to thank MM for the praise even though I didn't exactly dish out the wisdom, just added to the confusion
It has now happened twice to me that I originally wanted to short but got spooked out by a few dozen pips rise, discipline has been lacking lately.
Need to get my mind set correct.

Anyway, to make up for it I wanted to add to Mike's chart and show where there was another sign of cable yielding to resistance.
A pin bar is usually just a sharp move out and then right on back, with the open and close of the bar(s) preferably identical, and if you assemble the 2 1h bars on the chart I arrowed, you get just the thing.
On 4h it should also show, albeit a lot more crooked. I also marked a small small "proper" pin bar that was made on the last descending trendline touch.

Just to illustrate how to "know" what is happening to price at least a LITTLE bit more clearly than just feeling lost at sea

Best wishes,

SeekingLight

positive reversal coming, should be good to the longside soon with low as stop.

Oh and also, if you're a nut for trendlines, check out the fun things you can do with seemingly irrelevant old trendlines

Zoomed in it looks even more interesting, you can pass the time doing that on your chart ;D

I always find it creepy how they line up like this and how price creeps along them until it either gives up or blasts through - now if only I would have these in my chart beforehand to trade them

I just don't trust them enough I guess, like most places of S/R I just can't blindly trade them, I need to see some sort of PA setup first...but for a heads up they're not bad I guess.
Really haven't read up enough on the likes of Tom DeMarc et al to say...

Yeah I know what you mean. On the weekends I like to look for things like that, of course it's all in hindsight but it is very interesting. You probably noticed the lower squeeze line in your chart was the line Cable fluctuated around on Nov 23 (was that Thanksgiving?).


It would be nice to build up a kind of intuition for which lines will do this. I might start extrapolating lines based on certain conditions (ie. thin days like Nov 23) and see how the market reacts at these lines. The only problem I can see is that these old lines are causing resistances quite far in the future and so an error of just a degree or two will cause the line to be almost useless.

Seekinglight,


Thank you so much for posting those charts. I got a clear view

Hiya,

as far as I know the "real" trendlines should connect high/lows that aren't immediately challenged again, i.e. "real" points of support and resistance.
The mouteki thread had some rules on that (2 neighbors to both sides need to be 'smaller' e.g.) and a TDM pdf I skimmed over seemed to suggest similiar.
But then the guy adds 50 more rules and ends up making things more complicated than I'd ever like.

Also I found that allowing for a little bit spike tolerance especially on cable lines things up better. But like I said - I wouldn't trade off of it, since I'm just no good at it (knowing what works how with the TL).

The channels / descending / rising TLs DO however help greatly to see where we are headed and whether the up / down direction seems intact or getting broken more and more.
If things do move outside, there's always the s->r flip that happens if you do want to reverse and are looking for a spot to get in. Again, not something I like to do, as I've also seen price simply "give up" and drop back inside again too many times.

Early entries are golden, as always, middle trades are detrimental to profit AND your nerves.

I think I'm going to enforce a 2 tries maximum for a trade entry at around the london open or the best opening and if I miss that, I'm out for the day.
Should help trading and discipline.
Will see.

Just wanted to caution folks not to just draw lines and then thwack on trades any time price seems near them
Have a system and know what you're doing....sometimes need to remind even myself of that! =)

Best wishes,

SeekingLight

The next tp area is looking more and more like 9612 area before we continue downward.Over all move remains short.

2 hours stuck between 9560 and 9550.

Looks like it already went down all it wanted... I'm still short, but oozing patience by the seconds...

What do you think?