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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #3,461
  • Dec 27, 2006 7:43am Dec 27, 2006 7:43am
Market now is neither bullish nor bearish... IT IS DEVILISH!!!
  • #3,462
  • Dec 27, 2006 7:45am Dec 27, 2006 7:45am
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
CNBC just noted UAE selling dollars in favor of euros?? Anyone here that?
"On the global news front, the central bank of the UAE announced their intention to increase EUR reserves from 2% to 10% by selling USD. Governor Al-Suwaidi said it would occur over a nine month period and they would act “during dips”.
"
Hi MM,

That's also what I read. Quoted above.
Bit confused about cable today, first I thought ok, we should still be bearish, but we've already moved up too far and we didn't get the drop back down far enough after the London open to convince me that this is on today.
Then again the rise seems exhausted as well. General direction for now SEEMS to be higher though unless we take out 1.9570 for good.
Maybe the rest for today will be ranging, no idea.

It's all whippy and feels very unclear to me, as the different majors are also skewed (one makes a new high on the hourly against the dollar, the other for the dollar, etc....). Not very uniform, all of it. Prolly best to leave these thin days for other folks to trade and come back when trading is a bit less wacky...

Best regards,

SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #3,463
  • Dec 27, 2006 7:56am Dec 27, 2006 7:56am
Quoting cesarnc
Dec. 27 (Bloomberg) -- ``The U.A.E.'s decision to relocate its reserves is part of a theme that means that U.S. dollar holdings in global currency reserves are decreasing,'' said Hans Guenter Redeker, head of currency strategy in London at BNP Paribas SA. ``The dollar is going to lose support as we see Fed rate cuts next year.''
We deny the recession that the world sees; sure we'll have a rate cut around Q1 or springtime.

Quoting cesarnc
The Gulf state is among oil exporters including Iran, Venezuela and Indonesia that are looking to shift their currency reserves into euros or price their oil products in the 12-nation currency.
Like a snowball rolling down the side of a snow covered hill, this thing will gain momentum. We've used economic clout on so many nations in the past, now the kharma returns!!

Quoting cesarnc
U.S. Slowdown

``The data are likely to add to an economic slowdown scenario [just can't use that "R" word!]that may prompt a rate cut in the first quarter,'' said Masashi Kurabe, a currency manager in Tokyo at Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., a unit of Japan's largest lender by assets. ``The bias is to sell the dollar.''
Mr. Kurabe probably said "recession" in Japanese but was translated to "economic slowdown scenario". Sounds like a hippy hop tune...."scenario, scenario, yo economic slowdown scenario!!
  • #3,464
  • Dec 27, 2006 8:05am Dec 27, 2006 8:05am
Quoting SeekingLight
Hi MM,

....
It's all whippy and feels very unclear to me, as the different majors are also skewed (one makes a new high on the hourly against the dollar, the other for the dollar, etc....). Not very uniform, all of it. Prolly best to leave these thin days for other folks to trade and come back when trading is a bit less wacky...

Best regards,

SeekingLight
Good hearing from you,

Your comments are always appreciated. I agree the markets are thin and as such currencies seem whacked...that's why as a newstrader I wouldn't straddle the news today. And had I made it to the Caribbean, I probably wouldn't be yakking away on FF today

Merry Christmas to you and yours and a very prosperous, pip-filled New Year.
  • #3,465
  • Dec 27, 2006 8:07am Dec 27, 2006 8:07am
Quoting pdhawan
I went short at 9603. Expecting it to lose some pips before the New Homes numbers. I don't expect New Homes sales will live up to expectations.
Looking good! Cable bid at 9589!
  • #3,466
  • Dec 27, 2006 8:08am Dec 27, 2006 8:08am
9600 down for the count...


... hopefully
  • #3,467
  • Dec 27, 2006 8:09am Dec 27, 2006 8:09am
Quoting cesarnc
Yeah... I wasn't confident that Cable wouldbreak 9620, that's why I wasn't "trusting 9620". It bounced at it... Now, 9600 must be broken to boost the down trend, don't you think?
Short looks better and better; cable bid at 9590.
  • #3,468
  • Dec 27, 2006 8:11am Dec 27, 2006 8:11am
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Short looks better and better; cable bid at 9590.
Yeah.. back to channel ...

Freaking news in 45 min... Don't know what to do... Previous 1.0M, forecast 1.02M...
  • #3,469
  • Dec 27, 2006 8:15am Dec 27, 2006 8:15am
i shorted in euro session and closed and shorted again at 1.9625 all based on one pretty line(PA only made it easier)

so i'm with MM on the short side lets see what the news brings

Mike
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  • #3,470
  • Dec 27, 2006 8:15am Dec 27, 2006 8:15am
possible potive reversal in momentum forming, no clear direction though to continue so will wait for news. I like the little range that has been formed since 3:45. I think dynamic pivot points will work well once we have a close outside of that range.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #3,471
  • Dec 27, 2006 8:16am Dec 27, 2006 8:16am
Back to dollar strength on the Swissy...
  • #3,472
  • Dec 27, 2006 8:17am Dec 27, 2006 8:17am
Quoting mbqb11
i shorted in euro session and closed and shorted again at 1.9625 all based on one pretty line(PA only made it easier)

so i'm with MM on the short side lets see what the news brings

Mike
Great Mike, picture's worth a 1,000 pips, er ah.... words!
  • #3,473
  • Dec 27, 2006 8:19am Dec 27, 2006 8:19am
There is a double top on cable with a divergence so it looks bearish. The thing is it looks very messy. I'm trying to bypass the US news faff by shorting GBPJPY, although I am aware that crosses are still affected by dollar movements.

I noticed a divergence in the 4H chart on that pair and I'm looking for something of a swing trade. It's all a bit new to me, new timeframe with a new currency pair.

I'll be watching the dollar against the said currencies like a hawk at 3pm. The reason for this post is that I have a question. When you guys trade crosses, do you use the majors for exit signals if things go wrong?
  • #3,474
  • Dec 27, 2006 8:20am Dec 27, 2006 8:20am
cable bid at 9578...
  • #3,475
  • Dec 27, 2006 8:23am Dec 27, 2006 8:23am
Since we've been chatting at 8:00 am est this morning cable declined from 9625 to approx 9575; a little bounce now but the call remains "short".
  • #3,476
  • Dec 27, 2006 8:25am Dec 27, 2006 8:25am
im closing out of my cable till after the news too many mixed signals now

  • #3,477
  • Dec 27, 2006 8:28am Dec 27, 2006 8:28am
If you didn't get in on this play-by-play call from the traders this morning, then that's on you. Much thanks and shout-outs to Cesarnc, leugimp, mbqb11, fix1forme, seekinglight and others, you know who you are!!

But it ain't over baby!! We're in Phase II of today's plan which was shorting cable to TP of 9540 or so (though others in FF see a cable short to the low 9400s tomorrow).

Just information; not a recommendation.

Now a moment of silence for late President Gerald Ford.
  • #3,478
  • Dec 27, 2006 8:30am Dec 27, 2006 8:30am
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
If you didn't get in on this play-by-play call from the traders this morning, then that's on you. Much thanks and shout-outs to Cesarnc, leugimp, mbqb11, fix1forme, seekinglight and others, you know who you are!!

But it ain't over baby!! We're in Phase II of today's plan which was shorting cable to TP of 9540 or so (though others in FF see a cable short to the low 9400s tomorrow).

Just information; not a recommendation.

Now a moment of silence for late President Gerald Ford.
I'm in from 9600 down... It being a good test for my sphincter
  • #3,479
  • Dec 27, 2006 8:34am Dec 27, 2006 8:34am
Quoting mbqb11
im closing out of my cable till after the news too many mixed signals now
Good move; I still expect the old saw to be whipping around all the 10 pip straddles. As stated earlier, I wouldn't straddle this announcement and please, please, please (in memory of James Brown, the Godfather of Soul) watchout for the whipsaw!!

After news, resume shorts.

Just information; not a recommendation!!
  • #3,480
  • Dec 27, 2006 8:36am Dec 27, 2006 8:36am
ya im a post news guy, and agree this move is likely to be whipsaw by the looks.

thanks for the play by play MM

R.I.P Ford

Mike

Quoting MoneyMa$ter
Good move; I still expect the old saw to be whipping around all the 10 pip straddles. As stated earlier, I wouldn't straddle this announcement and please, please, please (in memory of James Brown, the Godfather of Soul) watchout for the whipsaw!!

After news, resume shorts.

Just information; not a recommendation!!
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