Elliott Wave Counting with EG

1min chart

Invalid once Price goes to 238.20 (SL) which is 1 pip right below previous Low or end of what was thought to be wave 1 down.

EG

Could I be really right to wait for this retracement?

EG

Nice trades for today.

Patience paid off tonight.

EG

Awesome analysis! Honestly, I was lost a bit in the count, so I didn't do a whole lot of trading. No matter. If we can nail this EW counting down, there are infinite opportunities to come. I'm going to review the last several days of charts and price action to see how I can anticipate the twists and turns, not just project levels that I'm not really certain will ever get hit.

I look forward to more discussion and then more live trading!

Pips4life

Note that the Title States Wave Analysis.

This is because I am not confident enough to say that I have followed Fully to the letter ALL of The Elliott Wave Principle Rules.

I have studied EW and various other systems. So my current analysis is a by product of an integrated use of various Systems from Elliott Wave Principles, Fibonacci Levels for Retracement and Extention, Andrew's Pitchfork, Harmonics, Pivot Levels, Channels, Chart Patterns and a whole bunch of Technical Indicators generously by friends and just plain helpful traders in this forum and in others I have been a member of.

What I present in this post should not be taken as the PERFECT WAVE Count. Believe me, this is still far from it. But why do I post these charts? It is because I want to share what I have come up with hopefully to get other traders who know Elliott Wave Principles better than I do to help me out with my wave counts.

I am not one to challenge somebody to just give me their wave counts without even trying to first present to them my own wave counts. I want to show the GURUS that I have exerted an effort to study this and work on my own charts before I ask for their help.

I will not trump and trash my way around the room saying "I have my own wave counts but let me see your wave count first " .....

So below are the current wave counts on my charts. Ioften start with my monthly chartthen step by step zoom in on my lower timeframe charts. This way I will know my limits and potential projections for price.

My charts are still far from being the road map to great riches. But I use it as a tool along with other tools plus the ever important Rules of Money Management to trade forex.

The charts will just show the wave counts. Some details explaining why I labelled them as such and their alternatives are found on page 59 of my thread starting on Post # 879.

Should you have any questions, I will try to answer them as best as I can.

EG

Charts Continued...

Just a note and a reminder for people viewing these charts....

You will see that I have endevoured to do micro EW counts up to 1 min charts. I find nothing wrong with it but it need to be used with caution.

EW Counting must be done on various Time frames and one needs to keep himself/herself attuned to all possible scenarios at each vlevel or timeframe.

One can actual lose sight of the bigger picture and get stuck in the lower time frame counts like I sometimes do. But it is a challenge I would love to overcome.

EG

PS...
If you want to know more details about my counts and why I labelled them as such..... some explanations are provided on page 59 of my thread and starting on Post #879.

If there is something wrong with my wave counts .... I am always willing to listen and admit that I am wrong.

And I would be very glad to start a discussion on Elliott Wave Counting here.

EG

follow up post 782.
no change in the view yet.

Your Direction was right. I was wondering what your Basis was for deciding that we are now on a 5th wave up much much earlier than I had to admit?

I had to wait until last week to get convinced that we were on a 5th wave and not just a B wave up.

EG

I just noticed the one above while reading my printout. Please check again, I do not remeber a wave C being aZigzag. If I remember it correctly Wave C is always a 5 wave impulse.

I might be showing some signs of old age already. Maybe you can help remind me?

EG

What if we have NOT finished w4 yet (and also "b")? I would love to see b@240,90 and c@237,20

Good work Carman... This worked out well for both of us.

Hopefully others benitted from our charts too.

EG

FxMt...

Last Friday, When price retracedup from 237.61 by 78.6 after I waited patiently and convinced, I entered my short trade convinced that this is still going down and I went to sleep. Seeing it try to go back up again while checking the charts this weekend, then drawing that trendline Pitchfork channel, looks like a downward C is still possible down to 61.8% depending on how far a B this price is still going up.

But, 1m 5m and 15m charts are showing bearish bias. However 30m 1h and 4 hours are bullish bias.

Combinig all these details and stirring them on the wok......

I would say we would still see price going slightly up or probably GAP UP then retrace to fill the GAP for our sub wave 4 then continue on its way UP to finish sub wave 5 of this wave 3 UP towards 245-247. But that actually depends also on how deep this sub wave 4 of the wave 3 up will go down.

The depth of this sub wave 4 has something to do with the probable projection of sub wave 5. I think, the deeper the sub wave 4 will be.... then the longer ( not necessarily higher ) the sub wave 5 will be projected as it would be like trying to go deeper first to gather momentum prior to blasting off (just a thought).

But projection for the end of wave 3 (which is also end of sub wave 5) based on a wave degree of wave 3 is in the area of 245-247.

Will try to post a chart showing this later. Although you can see this projection on post #

If we have a GAP this weekend, this is a sign that we are ei

Here is that chart again from from Post 946 where I explained why I think Price is in the UPTREND Long term. yet we were supposed to experience a retracement last Friday.

I am not afraid to post my 1 minute charts which many look at as FULL of Noise and not worth looking into.

I guess the other gentleman was right. I am deaf as I continue to do micro EW in the lower time frames.. Same rules apply to the lower or the lowest timeframes as what you apply on the higher timeframes.

They are just a lot faster and could sometimes run one down. But it is very challenging. If my MT4 only had the 1 second or 5 second charts, I would do it to that mini micro EW count.

EG

Hi EG,

A couple of sentences above you didn't finished. I'd be interested in your thoughts on the possible meaning of a gap.


Also FYI, have you noticed... The peak on Thur 11/1 was 241.34, a mere 12 pips below the previous major peak of 241.46 on January 23, that was certainly some kind of Wave 3 top, because of the big correction that followed. It's just a big resistance level to be aware of.

Hi EG, I thought I drop a thought on your forum. I attached a chart and wave count for the USD/JPY, which of course the GBP/JPY is just an extension of. The GBP/JPY count I beleive is completing a complex correction right now before the next wave lower to break through the September low of 219.29, in line with the USD/JPY to break through its low of 111.58. I believe the GBP/JPY is being tugged down by the USD/JPY but pushed up by the GBP/USD as it tries to get to 2.1000 ahead of the BOE rate decision Thursday. After the rate decision the GBP/USD should decline heavily, and the GBP/JPY should fall heavily now that it can fall freely with the USD/JPY. The GBP/JPY should fail to make a new high against 231.36, but if it does, the high will be short lived before a reversal on Thursday and wave 3 gets underway to head below 219.29. Here's the 4hr chart on the USD/JPY, where it's similar to the GBP/JPY count:

You are a fast one Pips4life to catch that.... I may not be able to cope with your speed. I thought no one would be interested how we can all blend our anajysis with the rest of the chart patterns and technical indicators that abound arounsd us.....

For the Post # ______ I actually decided ( in the middle of my thoughts ) to just post the charts from my previous posts outlining how I expected price to travel) Sorry I left that sentence hanging without referencing to it when I posted the charts in the following posts.

As for the GAP....... it usually signifies that we are in the middle of a wave 3 or nearing a wave 5 end. Another or actually the most important thing about GAPS is that they more often than not need to be filled. There may be exceptions to this, but very very few.

So in this context, I would foresee a slight GAP UP to finish this B wave inside this wave 4, then it would start to come down to finish the C wave down of the wave 4 as you can see in my chart below.

I know that my wave counts going up from 237.61 does not follow the obvious rules of EW. But I am also lost with that so I am looking at chart patterns and higher time frames for potential retracement levels and projection levels.

As I mentioned earlier or in a number of posts before these, since I see wave 2 which is same degree as this wave 4 price is in now as a simple zigzag, then by rule of alternation, I expect wave 4 to be expanding side ways. And when I saw that the 1st leg down of the wave 4 was subdivided into 3 waves, then I further assumed as a guide that we will expect a flat or an expanded corrective wave.

So if first leg of corrective wave is subdivided into 3, then we expect a flat or corrective wave.

If subdivided into 5 waves, then expect a Zigzag

But you also need to watch out for the combinations. That one I still have to figure out....

That is the reason why in an ealier post I mentioned that we would get near previous high of 241.35 as this would be the case if we had a FLAT corrective wave where B ends slightly near the origin of wave A. and the Potential projection of 242.23 up to 242.78 are the limits of a move going up for the wave B of an expanded flat.

Then a C wave should go down again.

I was more bias that were going for that expanded wave as it is also possible that the Bull Trend is too strong that it did not wait for C = A for this Wave A. and was in a hurry to get back to the uptrend going for the extended flat so a higher B.

But then I was watching this wave B develop and I got lost.

Now that I am writing about it .... something tells me that probably the reason I am not getting very clear signals in terms of wave formaton on this wave B up is because I am trying to expect the top of it now when infact, it is probably gearing up for that expanded flat wave on this B wave Up.

I will try to work on the charts again a litlle later.

EG

Will HS pattern fail? We have a strong upward channel...

Studying the charts and still looking for signs that will still get down to 219 or lower.

I have checked waves on each timeframe and all I see are indications that price will continue to go up in the LONG TERM. We all have to remember that a long term bullishness is accompanied by retracements ( corrective waves ) on the main trend.

First let me tackle that Pale Green Box on my chart. We are on a Daily chart/. But if you look at the lower timeframe like a 15 or a 1hr chartyou will see that Price is on a Wave 3 up.

Based on the Wave counts I have made on my lower TF charts, 1min could either go up or down, But that the pip move will not be that much.

Bias for the 1min chart as of Friday closing was still for it to go up..

5min and 15min showed signs of going down.

30min and 1hour were nearing the overbought levels of most Oscillators.

This brings me to conclude /assume that while 1min was going up while 5min and 15min charts show price going down, then the amount of pips that price will make going up will not be that much as it needs to catch up with the 5min and 15min charts that indicate going down.

On the wave count analysis this leads me to assume that price will complete the wave 5 of the wave c inside the wave b of a wave 4 down. ( leave that line out if you got lost there )

So as it finishes that wave 5 in the small TF, it then proceeds to come down to start and finish the wave c of wave 4 down represented by the down move of the 5min chart.

which is followed by a wave 5 up of the same degree as wave 4 representing the new move up of the 5min oscillator playing catch up with the 15min chart that is waiting at the oversold level. This finishes the wave 3 target of the Pale Green. Price Target Range will be approximately the FE 161.8 - 200. levels ( 241.69 - 243.79 ) Wave 3 end Target

Once this is achieved ( but need to watch the waves develop and complete the 5 wave structure ). then we would probably observe that 15min oscillator will be back at the top (overbought level) while the 30min and the 1hour chart oscillators will finally attain overbought levels too.

Next assumption would be that Price enters the Wave 4 of that Pale green Box and will start retracing the Wave 3 by 23.6%, 38.2%, 50% or rarely 61.8%. ( I wil update with possible levels once Wave 3 is completed so we can calculate actual starting point of retracement from there)

If the Bull trend is so strong, the tendency is for price to just achieve 23.6% retracement of wave 3 only and returns to the main trend which is Bullish. So next target would be the FE 161.8 - 200.0 Levels ( Range ) in Medium Violet Red. I would be inclined to target FE 200.0 and not just FE 161.8 on this one.

However, Wave 4 is more commonly represented by a 38.2% retracement of Wave 3. On some cases, it can still retrace up to 50% of wave 3. wioth this I will target FE 161.8 or FE 150.0 for the Latter.

On rare occassions or on a smaller percentage of occurrence up to 61.8% retracement of wave 3 can occur.

I sometimes think that the Rule of alternation will have some effect on how much wave 4 will retrace inorder to create some form of balance in the structure.

Imagine that wave 2 is normally a zigzag wave. And wave 2 by itself is often seen to retrace by at least 61.8% but could be up to 76.4% / 78.6% or 85% up to 100% of wave 1.

If Wave 2 is normally seen to retrace by 61.8 and wave 4 is commonly seen to retrace by 38.2, does this not add up to 100%?

It may not always be true. However I keep this in mind to ensure I am on my toes all the time to observe the waves develop.

So this line of analysis is carried on to the next box whose target will be the Wave 3 of the next higher degree.

Please note that this Analysis is what I can derive from the Charts I see.

I will still be keeping watch on how the Waves Develop onwards.

If there is any change in direction, I will try to keep this analysis updated.

But I will continue to post charts on a daily basis or when I have the time.

EG

Pips4life and FxMt..

Yes now I see what you are referring to..

My Pattern Guideline shows that a H&S Pattern exhibits a lower right shoulder to be valid. I think I also encountered this discussion in the "Chart Reading for Serious Traders Thread".

So we could just be building the right shoulder from here. But note that Left shoulder was at 241.47 and so far price as of Friday was till 241.35 on my chart. Yes a 12 pip difference as Pips4life has pointed out.

I would like to believe that this a part of succesful would be Head and shoulder pattern.

Remeber that H&S Pattern is a Reversal Pattern. Meaning as the H&S Pattern Completes, You will see price to be Bearish. But because the H&S pattern comes to completion, then you must expect a Reversal of Trend.

Applying this Analysis/Observation to our GBPJPY Chart, we can see that price on this Right shoulder has already reached 241.35. and at closing it was @ 239.92.

My wave count on the 1min chart is still a bit messed up as I still see price possibly going up a little before coming down or it can just continue going down from there.

Remember that for H&S to be valid this right shoulder must be lower than the right shoulder. so if right shoulder is at 241.47, maximum that price can or should possibly go up is at 241.46 which is 54 pips away. (something to watch out for if you expect a H&S to successfully develop.)

Ok above was just discussing the Shoulder tips. I am still not that familiar really with this but am tryingto make something out of it.

Next to consider is the Neckline where FxMt drew that diagonal line. You will note that the neckline nearer the right shoulder is lower than the neckline level nearer to the Left Shoulder. This should still qualify as a candidate for a Potential H&S Pattern.

Okay, you will see more notations on the chart. That would probably explain things better.

Overall, I would just take note of that potential Pattern. But this will boil down to a long term observation and probably inconsecquential to most intraday traders and probably even Day or swing traders at this time.

EG

If you see anything wrong with this post, you are free to correct me.


PS. with reference to wave analysis, i think it would not be a match up. I would stick to my wave analysis which I can interpret at much lower timeframes.

But offhand, if the Head and shoulders was to materialize , then this wave up from 237.60 is probably just the Wave B up of a Corrective wave 4 as initially expected and would be expected to end just below the 241.35 high.

And expected to go down again and possibly breaching the end of wave A slightly lower. See 2nd chart.

No chart yet to show how it would probably look like if it was an extended flat or just plain getting back to the Bull trend and being in a wave 5 up.