Elliott Wave Counting with EG

Hi all, money´s back

On the picture it seems that high was created, but on the 61% and not on the 76% like i predict. So i expect that USD/JPY will trend push down to new lows!!
EG, what you think?
nice day to all

http://www.trading-fx.si/forum/priva...nHunter_13.gif

Hi EG,

I have a suggestion for you, but it's something that I'm still learning about myself. I haven't got it all figured out yet, but here is how I'm trying to project prices. I saw something similar in one of your drawings, so I assume this isn't completely "new" to you.


Basically, the question comes up all the time: "What should my T/P target be?" I think that EW traders have a huge advantage with merely counting waves. Of course, there is also an interrelationship with fibo numbers as well.

I had not yet paid any attention to the Fibo Extension tool, but I'm seeing that it is _sometimes_ helpful. Other times, it's just plain confusing, because price may not even come close to the projected targets. Still, it's useful because it brings a "length" component to the analysis, beyond just the basic rule that Wave 3 can be the shortest. It can be confirmation, but is not enough by itself. I'll continue to work with it and see how it goes.

On to my suggestion...

A whole lot of people talk about Fibo Retracement lines which they draw from the previous major peak to major low for whatever timeframe they're considering, then they look for the major retracements to occur, and of course, the retracements occur with incredible high probability at key levels (e.g. 61.8, 50.0, 31.2, 23.6 especially).

I'm teaching myself a whole lot of things, probably the hard way because I don't have a live mentor to look over the shoulder of... and I stumbled on a technique which I see that you are probably using also, namely, that one can PROJECT future price action using the Fibo Retracement lines.

I'm not sure how much you use this technique. I didn't read about it anywhere and I'm just kind of teaching myself about it. Maybe you have more info which you can share with me (and I'm waiting for a library book about Fibonnacci for Traders which may tell me all about it too).

First of all, I suggest you set up the following 24 Fibo numbers, which are somewhat different from what you have...

0.0 14.6 23.6 38.2 50.0 61.8 76.4 85.4 100.0 118.0 127.0 144.0 161.8 200 161.8 261.8 423.6

and these negative numbers:
-18.0 -27.0 -44.0 -61.8 -76.4 -85.4 -100.0 (optionally one can add more here but I don't).

You'll notice 76.4 is not your 78.6. I have 85.4, not your 85, nor an 84 level which I've heard a little about but 85.4 is close enough.
The reason for my choices is partly for symmetry. If you draw top-down vs. bottom up, the 23.6 and 76.4 are the same; and 14.6 and 85.4 are the same. So I don't have to care which way I draw them, although by convention, for a Fibo PROJECTION, I start with the 100% (1st coordinate) and place the 0% (2nd coordinate) where price is moving to.

So then, how do you project a complete wave and get expected targets? The first part is easy... the ongoing part is a bit more subjective but still very helpful.

I place the first coordinate at what I think will be the start of a 5-wave series. Sometimes the zero point is also a B or C wave, other times it's after the corrective phase is done and then Wave 1 becomes obvious. You have to play with it and watch price action develop to see what fits, and once you see a good fit unfolding, chances are you're on to something for a very long run (multiple waves).

Say that an upward 5-wave begins (which altogether will be a higher level 1-Wave also). I put the zero point down at the start of probable Wave-1. I'm looking to put 85.4 where there is support/resistance evident. By 76.4, I can begin to see the impulse/breakout begin. It's tough to take this trade because it moves fast, and the breakout isn't yet obvious, but in retrospect, it will be. When price hits 61.8 (sometimes 50.0), it's very clear a wave is underway, hopefully a Wave-1. Then the Wave-2 retraces to at least the 76.4 line, and often to the 85.4 line. (Here's I'm NOT talking about 76.4 of THAT Wave-1, but of the entire expected series of 5-waves). I adjust the 0% (2nd coordinate) upwards so that price action is encompassed by two fibo lines. I then expect price to head to 50% or 38.2% and quite often, price action will be centered about the 50% line, bouncing from 31.8 to 61.2 (Wave 3 and 4). Finally there is an upward push, and of course, the 0% is the target, although 14.6 often occurs if it's weak, or conversely, -18.0 often occurs if strong, or even -27.0. NEXT, there is an A, or ABC correction, and then price continues up to -27, -44, -61.8.

The thing is, as price moves upwards, you have a projected target. But as price unfolds, you slightly adjust the Fibo lines for the best overall fit, especially when it's time to project Wave-5. You might end up making a substantial change, like use the 50% line where the 38.2% once was, but only if it makes a better overall fit.


You just have to try it and observe it on past waves. Adding the additional Fib lines will be helpful, IMO, although it does add to the clutter somewhat.

Of course, in addition to the Fib Projection, you still have the traditional Fibo Retracement set up, where you will indeed see one of the common retracement levels occur, and quite often, the two Fibos will overlap at the critical level values, sometimes even giving an important clue about WHICH of the retracement levels to expect. The confluence of S/R is often very important.


I just realized today that my enhancements to the Set_Fibo_Price_Any_V2.mq4 script could be useful as follows: I could use the default TextStyle=2 for Fibo Projections, and TextStyle=1 for Fibo Retracements. Unfortunately, I can't use them both in the same window! Drat! But I can distinguish between them in different windows. Alternatively, I might chose some color scheme or dash-line-style where one set of colors/line-styles is for Retracements (actual measurements), the other for Projections. Gotta work on that...


I'm finding that the Projected levels, if you find an obvious good fit by subjective adjustment, are often far more powerful and accurate than Fibo Retracement levels. Sometimes, I have found, when you do find an obvious Fibo fit after a very long series of multiple-corrective waves, it will give you a better clue as to which is the true start of Wave-1; so it can help with EW counts.


Here's an H1 chart example. Basically, the entire Fib projection can be determined by the very first wave, then you watch it and see how the rest of it fits... which in this case, there are plenty of obvious S/R levels projected by this simple but powerful technique!

Pips4life

P.S. Going to bed now, so no more posts tonight.

OK, one MORE post...

Me thinks I may be wrong about Wave 1-2-3... here, although it hasn't played out yet. This is looking rather like we're having a double correction:

A(abc) - B(abc) - C(1-2-3-4-diag5) - X - A(similar abc), -B (abc, just finished c??), and now a final C(Y?) wave down beginning now?? Depends if the current downward price of 238.40 goes below the a wave 238.30ish.

I presume this level is the key as to whether we begin an uptrend or repeat another downtrend.

Hey Pips4Life..

I will look into your stuff a litlle later. Currently trading now. But I appreciate your taking time to share here.

EG

GBPJPY continues to climb and has now penetrated the Weekly R2 and the Daily Pivot.

Has even also pierced and is coming out of the Ichimoku Cloud on the 15 min chart.

Levels of Resistance that I see from here on as it moves up are

Daily R1 240.38
Daily R2 241.22

What would stop it from going any further UP?......... Not much Except for Weekly R3 @ 242.24

Good Trading to all of you

EG

Fibo Targets for internal swings

Fe 261.8 @ 239.67
FE 300.0 @ 239.92

eg!
comments to my picture maybe, couse i like your advices for counting?!
please

I have enter GU on 1 hr pin bar too... but the target is 239.91

EW Rocks


EG

Hey money....

Sorry about this delay. I was trading LIVE earlier and was experimenting on riding each wave turn on GBPJPY.

Attached is my proposed count for usdjpy.

Honestly, something is a bit weird with my count on the 4 hour chart waves 1 and 2.

But so far this is what I can come up with.

EG

Great work Carman. I was doing the same way you did.

First target is the FE 161.8 of the smaller degree wave ( wave 3 inside wave 3 )

Then moving upt to the actual wave 3 which is also the end of the wave 5 of the smaller degree.

We both woul get the same results.

EG

Possible Trendline Resistance.

Yet Matching EW Forecast for end of a wave 3 @ FE 161.8

Entering short trade at @239.70 or 239.88

EG

more charts for money

check if these charts and the counts make sense.

EG

Just another quick post after a very short night sleep...

I promise you that this is what my M5 Fib projection looked like when I went to sleep. I was too caught up in "history repeats itself" meaning it would go further short when I went to bed... Dumb. It was a classic end of a 4-wave just barely above the top of the previous 1 wave top. Alas, you were absolutely right as to the direction -- LONG!

You can see my Fib projection levels play out amazing well through the completion of first Wave 1-5 ( "(1)" ? ), a retrace A(zigzag),B(flat),C(zigzag) ( altogether a "(2)" ), and now were into the "(3)" wave cycle of 5.

I'm not saying the levels were absolutely perfect, and I may well have adjusted them or made a 2nd projection for the "(3)" wave in progress. But for knowing only a couple of early data points, these level projections were great.

Pips4life

Ok ...
Price has hit Daily Resistance 1 @ 240.26
A Bearish Gartley Pattern has formed on the 15m chart
Have reached the 7/8 Murrey Math Level
Stochastics for 1m, 5m and 15m charts are at Overbought Levels
Possible Pin Bar formin on the 15min Chart

Shorted this Pair from
237.76 nursed from Asian Session
239.68 after the NFP News.

still managed to get almost 68 pips net of the spread during news time.

Note that the trades I made from the Asian Session Alongside this draw down actually turned the tide by almost doubling the amount Profitted compared to the drawdown. Moe like Hedging the drawdown.

But what was good was that we knew then how the price was going to travel and had an idea as to potential Profit Level of each Wave and the Potential extent of each retracement and wave Projection.

That was still profit despite the 18 pip spread I have to pay for each trade I make.

EG

Shorted this Pair from
237.76 nursed from Asian Session
239.68 after the NFP News. Exited for NET 73 Pips. I feel Good Today!!

Will probably wait till the last trade turns positive or maybe just decide to close it before session ends.

EG

Checking iof it is worthwhile to enter another short from near 240 area. seen as retracement before going down again.

EG

Price looks like forming a zigzag wave for the wave 2 up which is a retracement of the wave 1 down after over balancing the sub wave 4 of the previous Impulse wave.

will be watching 61.8 , 778.6 and 85% Retracement as Potential re entry points for the Short trade.

Then Target would be C = A or the Following Percentages in relation to wave A down

61.8
100
161.8

See attached chart.

But if price does not go up to the levels I stated, then I will not enter any more trades to roll over the weekend.

EG

Re enter based on 1 min chart.

Only if price goes up to 78.6% retracement .

Target FE 100.0


EG

Initial 3 wave A Down seemed enough.

However as the wave developed, it now looks like it was just the sub wave "a" for the bigger 3 wave A Down. Making it a doule Zigzag as the firat leg of the Expanded Flat or the Regular Flat Corrective Wave.

Bias choice is FE 100.0 instead of FE 127.6. The latter is within the price territory of wave 2 and overlaps with wave 1. So this cannot be allowed ( referrng to FE 127.6 level )

we will have a better idea if this is expanded or regular once the end of this double zigzag down is established.

EG