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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #37,901
  • Oct 30, 2007 9:57am Oct 30, 2007 9:57am
US FED: Implied Fed Funds Rate from Futures Contracts Boston, October
30. The Fed Funds rate show strong odds of a 25 bas point cut (96%) to 4.500%
but the odds have lessened from full odds in the prior week. There are no odds
of a 50 base point cut for the FOMC 2-day meet beginning at noon.
.
4.750 4.750
4.510
4.400
4.350
4.240
4.200
4.140
4.080
4.070
' 4.000 '
Target Oct07 Nov07 Dec07 Jan08 Feb08 Mar08 Apr08 May08 Jun08 Jul08
! Odds 0% 96% 140% 160% 204% 220% 244% 272% 268% 300%
  • #37,902
  • Oct 30, 2007 10:08am Oct 30, 2007 10:08am
From CME:-

Based upon the October 29 market close, the 30-Day Federal Funds futures contract for the November 2007 expiration is currently pricing in a 98 percent probability that the FOMC will decrease the target rate by at least 25 basis points from 4-3/4 percent to 4-1/2 percent at the FOMC meeting on October 31 (versus a 2 percent probability of no rate change).
Summary Table
October 24: 86% for -25 bps versus 14% for -50 bps.
October 25: 86% for -25 bps versus 14% for -50 bps.
October 26: 92% for -25 bps versus 8% for -50 bps.
October 29: 2% for No Change versus 98% for -25 bps.
October 30:
October 31: FOMC decision on federal funds target rate.
  • #37,903
  • Edited 10:49am Oct 30, 2007 10:15am | Edited 10:49am
alright, just came back from a meeting out of town... i see cable broke last high and is currently heading towards 2.07.
here is a chart for daily g-u. we currently are in a daily (weekly) wave up; i put that fibo so that you can see the extensions.
i expect a possible rebound around one of those levels: 2.0780 (1.128), 2.0924 (1.272)... when? when i see a clear bearish divergence that is confirmed by price action. what is the target? well, depends on the last high (which is to come...) - 0.618 to 0.786 from a fibo between 1.9652 and last high.
that's it for now.

p.s. another interesting level is 2.1101...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 32 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #37,904
  • Oct 30, 2007 11:30am Oct 30, 2007 11:30am
GBP/USD: Trades to Fresh Multi-Year Highs New York, October 30. Fresh multi-year trend highs for Cable today after the highly sought after 2.0655 level was finally taken out this morning, with the pair continuing to rally on the back of the weaker than expected US consumer confidence data. BoE deputy Kate Barker was once again on the wires questioning the need for the MPC to cut interest rates in light of the relatively unchanged market environment compared to August, a time when the MPC was still looking to potentially tighten. However, given the ongoing deterioration in the UK housing market, the MPC is likely to proceed with caution heavily weighing the affects of a potential cooling.
October Nationwide house prices will be released on Wednesday and a disappointing number will likely trigger some GBP selling. The pair had initially been weighed down earlier on in London trade with many traders being influenced by the article released in the Wall Street Journal from Greg Ip arguing that a Fed cut tomorrow is not a done deal.
Technically, the market has found a low at 2.0565 today, and has subsequently taken out the 2.0655 (July 24 high) trend highs. The 10-day/30-day moving averages are positively aligned, and this keeps the overall bias on the upside. Daily momentum remains positive, reinforcing the upside potential for 2.0745 (1981 monthly high). Hourlies however are overbought and due for a minor pullback. Notoriously dovish MPC David Blanchflower is slated to speak at 18:00GMT today and this could the catalyst for said correction
  • #37,905
  • Oct 30, 2007 12:10pm Oct 30, 2007 12:10pm
meanwhile the poll results are showing that 69.90% of people polled think cable will be above 2.00. by years end. 69% is a huge physcological number as anything more than that and things can get really messy, However dont be suprised if new players to the game "come in" and "push" that number higher.
However if things "go down" lower then 69% shows that the veiwers failed to deliever the goods which means charts should go limp instead of up.
Just Trade It
  • #37,906
  • Oct 30, 2007 12:13pm Oct 30, 2007 12:13pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Good news is bad news
Bad news is good news
No news is B.S news


Either way I dont feel tommorows news will change the direction we are in now. Yes on the 15min chart it will spike up then down then back up again, but on the daily it will only be a long wick with a small body but still showing dollar weakness. But then again I am always wrong so be prepared to short everything in sight. Majority of people are looking for places to short, the rest of us are looking for places to add to our longs continuing the long term trends. Thats why the trend is not your friend is because everybody is looking for when it will be over and not when it will continue.
true indeed
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #37,907
  • Oct 30, 2007 12:14pm Oct 30, 2007 12:14pm
FOREX: Harris Poll Respondents See Weak USD Hurting Exports? San Francisco, Oct 30. Earlier this morning, Harris Interactive released a poll on the current weakness of the USD. Of the respondents, 55% actually see the USD fall as bad for exports and only 21% see it as good for exports. 66% see the USD fall as bad for the economy and 68% see it as bad for the American consumer. It appears that spinning the USD fall as an overall negative in the press has convinced the general public that the fall in the USD will actually hurt US exports, rather than help them as earnings reports from international companies indicate. The survey shows that even those polled with college grad and post grad education show that the majority believe that a weak USD will hurt exports. Go figure.
  • #37,908
  • Oct 30, 2007 12:27pm Oct 30, 2007 12:27pm
Quoting tim1234
FOREX: Harris Poll Respondents See Weak USD Hurting Exports? San Francisco, Oct 30. Earlier this morning, Harris Interactive released a poll on the current weakness of the USD. Of the respondents, 55% actually see the USD fall as bad for exports and only 21% see it as good for exports. 66% see the USD fall as bad for the economy and 68% see it as bad for the American consumer. It appears that spinning the USD fall as an overall negative in the press has convinced the general public that the fall in the USD will actually hurt US exports, rather than help them as earnings reports from international companies indicate. The survey shows that even those polled with college grad and post grad education show that the majority believe that a weak USD will hurt exports. Go figure.

Thats why most american degrees are not accepted here in Switzerland.
They are fully aware about the education system there and most people here have a bachelors degree equivalency by the time they are 18. Swiss high school is better than the majority of american universitys.
And I am proof of that.

Seriously this is not a laughing matter, just look at the Kansas BOE throwing out any scientifical fact that disagrees with the bible. They were thinking about not teaching science all together, they are not even allowed to study darwin, How fucking stupid do you have to be to throw out scientifical fact. And people wonder why I left america.
Just Trade It
  • #37,909
  • Oct 30, 2007 12:32pm Oct 30, 2007 12:32pm
Glad im from the uk then lol
  • #37,910
  • Oct 30, 2007 12:36pm Oct 30, 2007 12:36pm
LOL

3.5 hours out of the office and cable is still at 0669. C´moooooooooonnnn,

Only this pair is able to crack a multi-years high (0652) to sit like Fat Bastard 17 pips above of it

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...t_bastard.jpeg
  • #37,911
  • Oct 30, 2007 12:43pm Oct 30, 2007 12:43pm
Quoting tim1234
Glad im from the uk then lol
we learned from the last presidental election the precise ratio between people that have half a brain or better and the complete idiots
unfortunatly its 51% to 49% but I think its more like 60/40 as you have to factor that some people made a mistake while voting and accendentally voted for the wrong person than they intended.

Sorry America I cant defend you anymore, Everyday I hear of more stupid shit coming from the U.S than any place on earth. The younger generation is worse as they dont even know who the vice president is but know what Paris Hilton wore or didnt wear today.
Just Trade It
  • #37,912
  • Oct 30, 2007 12:45pm Oct 30, 2007 12:45pm
Just to spice it up

As the Federal Reserve begins a two-meeting today, investors are left wondering just what the central bank plans to do about interest rates.Many still expect the Fed to cut the benchmark federal funds rate by at least another quarter point, to 4.5%. But an article in Tuesday's Wall Street Journal said a cut is not a sure thing. That note of caution helped push down stock prices and raised some uncertainty about what the Fed would announce at 2:15 pm Wednesday.
CNBC

Oil already in profit taking mode while gold is pulling back a notch. Stock market floating between MAs.

My expectation so far is cable and euro sitting still at huge levels just ahead of the statement. Like mid 0700 and 1.45.

But if this caution bias hit the market, we may go down hard in the following hours until tomorrow.

Thoughts on what to expect until the statement?? (not the statement and its aftermath!)
  • #37,913
  • Oct 30, 2007 12:49pm Oct 30, 2007 12:49pm
Quoting cesarnc

Thoughts on what to expect until the statement?? (not the statement and its aftermath!)

More B.S
Just Trade It
  • #37,914
  • Oct 30, 2007 1:13pm Oct 30, 2007 1:13pm
BWR

I would just like to say I am glad you are in Switzerland. People are either the solution or the problem.

Sun
  • #37,915
  • Oct 30, 2007 1:20pm Oct 30, 2007 1:20pm
Quoting SunTrader
BWR

I would just like to say I am glad you are in Switzerland. People are either the solution or the problem.

Sun

I'm trying to be the solution as once I have children they will be educated over here and will be able to atleast speak 3 languages by the time they are 5.
Just Trade It
  • #37,916
  • Oct 30, 2007 1:29pm Oct 30, 2007 1:29pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
I'm trying to be the solution as once I have children they will be educated over here and will be able to atleast speak 3 languages by the time they are 5.
At the pace we are in, there is just one language kids will be forced to learn: mandarin

  • #37,917
  • Oct 30, 2007 1:44pm Oct 30, 2007 1:44pm
Money is the universal language.
  • #37,918
  • Oct 30, 2007 1:55pm Oct 30, 2007 1:55pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
I'm trying to be the solution as once I have children they will be educated over here and will be able to atleast speak 3 languages by the time they are 5.
Happy for you find the solution to your own situation but I thought you were talking about America.

Anyway as far as learning a foreign language, people do what they need to do. On this continent there is only one other language besides English, Espanol in Mexico - unless you count the French Froggies in Quebec. Europe has a dozen or more languages in a far smaller land mass.

And the example of Darwin in where ever it was, how about the muslims wanting to wear head scarves in France.

People who live in glass houses.... you know.

We get enough criticism from others. We don't need from our own. Especially our own who no longer live here. Target where you are for your rant. I worked for a Swiss import/export company back in the late 80's. They are far from perfect.
  • #37,919
  • Oct 30, 2007 2:09pm Oct 30, 2007 2:09pm
Quoting SunTrader
Money is the universal language.
Love is the universal language ..

Money is the universal love
  • #37,920
  • Oct 30, 2007 2:12pm Oct 30, 2007 2:12pm
Quite sometime we don't see two H4 in Dow Jones like today.

THAT's one market "on hold"....

Every single trader in the world wishing to be the mosquito in Bernanke's bedroom tonight.
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