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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #36,521
  • Oct 21, 2007 3:57pm Oct 21, 2007 3:57pm
Quoting cesarnc
The bad side is that trustworthy (if we can call it) support is now at the 0450/0480 area.

I left a long by the end of the day planning to add at breach of Fridays's high, it's gone already and my broker is on in 1 hour only LOL...

Well, I guess I'll have to wait for a pullback or wait for Tuesday. This week has all it takes to start strong but to go numb quickly as people will avoid taking positions ahead of The Statement.

Unless, the stock market goes crazy. BWR's thread mentioned that Black Monday started with a -106 Friday Dow Jones. We just had a -366 Friday
You never know.... You never never know.... But with such statements - BUSH - he just further fuels the panic and people are already shaking... IMHO. This run-up in the Dow was completely unexplainable if we put in contrast the credit markets so if we get into balance...
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  • #36,522
  • Oct 21, 2007 4:02pm Oct 21, 2007 4:02pm
Hey guys...what if we face a market crash at some point this week? What would be the best positioning. Lets make a poll here....I think a LONG CABLE could outperform everything else...what do you guys think ???
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #36,523
  • Oct 21, 2007 4:04pm Oct 21, 2007 4:04pm
ugly view
Attached Image
  • #36,524
  • Oct 21, 2007 4:08pm Oct 21, 2007 4:08pm
Quoting pinchapip
Hey guys...what if we face a market crash at some point this week? What would be the best positioning. Lets make a poll here....I think a LONG CABLE could outperform everything else...what do you guys think ???
LONG CABLE LONG... YEEHAAA
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  • #36,525
  • Oct 21, 2007 4:10pm Oct 21, 2007 4:10pm
Quoting pinchapip
Hey guys...what if we face a market crash at some point this week? What would be the best positioning. Lets make a poll here....I think a LONG CABLE could outperform everything else...what do you guys think ???
Used to be short carries. But they didn't follow suit on Friday, what puts me reaaaaly cautious about trading or not a possible selloff...

BTW, UJ was hammered at the start. But I think it was result of the G7, talking nothing on the weak dollar.

G7 dogs barked like German Shepherds for a month, but address the issue like chihuahuas
  • #36,526
  • Oct 21, 2007 4:18pm Oct 21, 2007 4:18pm
Quoting bullrock
LONG CABLE LONG... YEEHAAA
Hummmm....I wish we had someone here who had traded a crash before. What I have found online favors a short dollar...BUT.... what if the "safe-haven" bs kicks in ??? What if people massively jump on bonds? The dollar is so low right now that it could go against "all" fundamentals and reverse anyways, just as the Yen does.

Any thoughts ????
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #36,527
  • Oct 21, 2007 4:23pm Oct 21, 2007 4:23pm
Quoting pinchapip
Hummmm....I wish we had someone here who had traded a crash before. What I have found online favors a short dollar...BUT.... what if the "safe-haven" bs kicks in ??? What if people massively jump on bonds? The dollar is so low right now that it could go against "all" fundamentals and reverse anyways, just as the Yen does.

Any thoughts ????
August selloff was a short carries paradise, but wasn't exactly a "crash".
  • #36,528
  • Oct 21, 2007 4:27pm Oct 21, 2007 4:27pm
Quoting cesarnc
August selloff was a short carries paradise, but wasn't exactly a "crash".
A crash will send the carries to hell...no doubt about it....but the dollar could benefit. There is an analysis at dailyforex, based on the Elliot wave that predicts a massive TANK for the cable.
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #36,529
  • Oct 21, 2007 4:36pm Oct 21, 2007 4:36pm
Quoting pinchapip
A crash will send the carries to hell...no doubt about it....but the dollar could benefit. There is an analysis at dailyforex, based on the Elliot wave that predicts a massive TANK for the cable.
not yet,...euro and cable should gain value further on, but at the same time, gaining the mucho momentum for crash in middle november...stocks in the start of 2008, as well carries...or not...
oilvs/yen should outperform if tensions in middle east and bad weather going on...
its just money
  • #36,530
  • Oct 21, 2007 4:40pm Oct 21, 2007 4:40pm
Quoting pinchapip
A crash will send the carries to hell...no doubt about it....but the dollar could benefit. There is an analysis at dailyforex, based on the Elliot wave that predicts a massive TANK for the cable.
EW use to predict where the price is going pretty well. But fails miserably in predicting from which price and when.

So if cable tanks like EWers say, but in December from 2.1, you don't want to be short tomora, will ya? LOL...

Anyways, it's all about wait and see now. It's pointless to stay here crash jerking.

One good earning report tomorrow and Dow goes 150 up in the first hour.
  • #36,531
  • Oct 21, 2007 4:48pm Oct 21, 2007 4:48pm
Quoting pinchapip
A crash will send the carries to hell...no doubt about it....but the dollar could benefit. There is an analysis at dailyforex, based on the Elliot wave that predicts a massive TANK for the cable.
You never know.
.
  • #36,532
  • Oct 21, 2007 5:02pm Oct 21, 2007 5:02pm
WOW.....GBP/JPY
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #36,533
  • Oct 21, 2007 5:03pm Oct 21, 2007 5:03pm
I'm wondering if this week is going to be a bad one for the dow. It could be very interest for cable if it is.
  • #36,534
  • Oct 21, 2007 5:06pm Oct 21, 2007 5:06pm
Quoting peterM
I'm wondering if this week is going to be a bad one for the dow. It could be very interest for cable if it is.
Sunday morning I've shorted the EJ despite the 10 pips spread....
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  • #36,535
  • Oct 21, 2007 5:07pm Oct 21, 2007 5:07pm
I believe the FED will intervene in some way this week.
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #36,536
  • Oct 21, 2007 5:14pm Oct 21, 2007 5:14pm
WTF??????
  • #36,537
  • Oct 21, 2007 5:38pm Oct 21, 2007 5:38pm
Quoting pinchapip
WOW.....GBP/JPY
thats a bad M.F.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #36,538
  • Oct 21, 2007 5:38pm Oct 21, 2007 5:38pm
Quoting bullrock
Sunday morning I've shorted the EJ despite the 10 pips spread....
What made u do that, bullrock?
  • #36,539
  • Oct 21, 2007 6:06pm Oct 21, 2007 6:06pm
Already at an all-time low against the euro, the dollar looks set to plumb new depths this week after Group of Seven finance chiefs ended a weekend meeting without offering verbal support for the U.S. currency.


While the G7 did urge China to speed up appreciation of the yuan, its failure to address dollar weakness, notably against the euro, suggested traders need not fear any coordinated official efforts to prop up the greenback.




Bye bye dollar
  • #36,540
  • Oct 21, 2007 6:10pm Oct 21, 2007 6:10pm
Quoting cesarnc
Already at an all-time low against the euro, the dollar looks set to plumb new depths this week after Group of Seven finance chiefs ended a weekend meeting without offering verbal support for the U.S. currency.


While the G7 did urge China to speed up appreciation of the yuan, its failure to address dollar weakness, notably against the euro, suggested traders need not fear any coordinated official efforts to prop up the greenback.




Bye bye dollar
Yeah, nothing seems to be able to save the dollar the moment. The only thing that may give it some strength would be a significant carry unwind, but that may only be short term
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