waiting for a break of the lower side of the Andrew's Pitchfork.
Otherwise we may be headed higher
EG
Otherwise we may be headed higher
EG
- #802
- Oct 18, 2007 11:32pm Oct 18, 2007 11:32pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
50% in time and 50% retracement for the AP values
EG
EG
- #803
- Oct 19, 2007 5:03am Oct 19, 2007 5:03am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
adjusted my wave 3 yellow
missed to take profit on that last dive. still holding my short now and actually added at 235.79
yelllow wave 4 possible from 38.2 to 50% retracement 236.12 to 236.52 but not higher than 236.64 or wave 1 yellow.
if it goes higher than 236.64, then my count is invalid. will need to close my shorts at a loss
EG
missed to take profit on that last dive. still holding my short now and actually added at 235.79
yelllow wave 4 possible from 38.2 to 50% retracement 236.12 to 236.52 but not higher than 236.64 or wave 1 yellow.
if it goes higher than 236.64, then my count is invalid. will need to close my shorts at a loss
EG
- #808
- Oct 19, 2007 6:28am Oct 19, 2007 6:28am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Current limit to still consider a Big Wave C down is up to 238.78.
This would mean that we are just in the wave 2 inside wave 3 down of the big wave C Down.
So this could be considered as just a retracement.
IMHO.... the break of the daily trend line can be considered as the start of the decline for this pair and what we are seeing as an upmove now is but a retracement.
So 238.78 is limit for move up to still consider the continuation of the move down for wave 3.
Currently waiting on the sidelines now.
Closed my short trades (2) at a loss.
EG
This would mean that we are just in the wave 2 inside wave 3 down of the big wave C Down.
So this could be considered as just a retracement.
IMHO.... the break of the daily trend line can be considered as the start of the decline for this pair and what we are seeing as an upmove now is but a retracement.
So 238.78 is limit for move up to still consider the continuation of the move down for wave 3.
Currently waiting on the sidelines now.
Closed my short trades (2) at a loss.
EG
- #809
- Oct 19, 2007 7:43am Oct 19, 2007 7:43am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
presenting another 30m chart
maybe someone will find something useful in it
EG
maybe someone will find something useful in it
EG
- #811
- Oct 20, 2007 11:02am Oct 20, 2007 11:02am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
EG, I still have this count on the table...
Yes your ABC Count is still possible. If you look at the charts I attach with the trendlines on it on 4h, 1h and 15m charts, I would say that wave 5 of this wave C down would be near the level of that support trendline 234.60 or could even fall below that.
On the other hand, I am still not removing from the table that it is still possible that we could be in the wave 3 down of the wave c down.
As you can see from my posts, I do not base my analysis on EW alone. I keep an open mind using other tools to supplement my EW Analysis and price direction Analysis.
I consider Trendline breakouts specially in the higher timeframes important like this 4h trendline Support Breakout. To me, this could signal a confirmation that this pair is going south big time.
However, we also see a falling wedge which could also mean that we have a bullish continuation trend.
A falling wedge theory count of 12345 should have seen a breakout to the north after the 5th count. But instead it has gone south again to probably kiss the lower side of the wedge again to make the 8th count.
So to me, considering all this now, I would say that a 123 or an ABC count for this south move which started around 240.66 level is still possible. We could continue going south if this is a 123 of a 5 wave impulse wave c. Or we could wait for wave c down to finish its wave 5 in this zigzag ABC from 240.66
EG
PS.
I am attaching a series of charts where I drew support and resistance trendlines, ew labels on different TFs, fib retracements.
I am putting them on separate charts to minimize confusion for those trying to look at these charts. I am more used to having all these tools in just 1 or just a few charts so I can see them in just 1 place. But I understand that these could confuse many.
- #812
- Oct 20, 2007 11:34am Oct 20, 2007 11:34am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Hey FxMt
We have an EW Count Difference on the 4h chart. While you have just an abc for the b wave inside the big wave B up, I have a flat and a triangle.
I am not saying that my count is better than yours but just trying to point out to the new ones here about this difference.
To be honest, I am still unclear and not so fully convinced with that complex wave labelling I did. I just feel and think that I am not breaking any EW Rules with this count. Unless someone could please point out to me here if I have violated any EW Rule I would appreciate hearing from someone who sees an EW Rule violation in my count.
I am currently up 93 pips on my demo account. but still a long way off from recovering from that loss I suffered after closing my 2 short trades on that last move up to 237.00 I exited those trades for a total of 272 pips.
Too bad I exited both at once. I was not too clear with my count on 32 and 33 yellow which promted me to decide to cut my losses.
So for now, I will be looking at what happens on the market open on Asian Monday.
Incidentally, I was just trying to check Potential wave 5 projection of the your wave c down or my potential wave 3 down using the fib projection/extention tool.
And what do I get here?.....
We see that wave 3 aqua is bery near the FE 161.8 level
When I use this tool to project wave 5, I would normally look for the FE 261.8 to FE 300.00 That is 232.46 - 231.62
On the otherhand, if my reversal stand holds, then my wave 3 projection is in the area of 230.97 - 229.13 Blue EW Labels 123
EG
We have an EW Count Difference on the 4h chart. While you have just an abc for the b wave inside the big wave B up, I have a flat and a triangle.
I am not saying that my count is better than yours but just trying to point out to the new ones here about this difference.
To be honest, I am still unclear and not so fully convinced with that complex wave labelling I did. I just feel and think that I am not breaking any EW Rules with this count. Unless someone could please point out to me here if I have violated any EW Rule I would appreciate hearing from someone who sees an EW Rule violation in my count.
I am currently up 93 pips on my demo account. but still a long way off from recovering from that loss I suffered after closing my 2 short trades on that last move up to 237.00 I exited those trades for a total of 272 pips.
Too bad I exited both at once. I was not too clear with my count on 32 and 33 yellow which promted me to decide to cut my losses.
So for now, I will be looking at what happens on the market open on Asian Monday.
Incidentally, I was just trying to check Potential wave 5 projection of the your wave c down or my potential wave 3 down using the fib projection/extention tool.
And what do I get here?.....
We see that wave 3 aqua is bery near the FE 161.8 level
When I use this tool to project wave 5, I would normally look for the FE 261.8 to FE 300.00 That is 232.46 - 231.62
On the otherhand, if my reversal stand holds, then my wave 3 projection is in the area of 230.97 - 229.13 Blue EW Labels 123
EG
Hey FxMt
We have an EW Count Difference on the 4h chart. While you have just an abc for the b wave inside the big wave B up, I have a flat and a triangle.
I am not saying that my count is better than yours but just trying to point out to the new ones here about this difference.
To be honest, I am still unclear and not so fully convinced with that complex wave labelling I did. I just feel and think that I am not breaking any EW Rules with this count. Unless someone could please point out to me here if I have violated any EW Rule I would appreciate hearing from someone who sees an EW Rule violation in my count.
I am currently up 93 pips on my demo account. but still a long way off from recovering from that loss I suffered after closing my 2 short trades on that last move up to 237.00 I exited those trades for a total of 272 pips.
Too bad I exited both at once. I was not too clear with my count on 32 and 33 yellow which promted me to decide to cut my losses.
So for now, I will be looking at what happens on the market open on Asian Monday.
Incidentally, I was just trying to check Potential wave 5 projection of the your wave c down or my potential wave 3 down using the fib projection/extention tool.
And what do I get here?.....
We see that wave 3 aqua is bery near the FE 161.8 level
When I use this tool to project wave 5, I would normally look for the FE 261.8 to FE 300.00 That is 232.46 - 231.62
On the otherhand, if my reversal stand holds, then my wave 3 projection is in the area of 230.97 - 229.13 Blue EW Labels 123
EG
We both agree we are in the "3 or C" down targeting:
1. 234.40/30-233.85/60 area for my ABC-correction-only-case following with a w5 to new high
OR
2. 232-229 area for your 1-5 new-downward-trend-case
Now how should we trade different posibilities and have a win-win situation
? Let's look what is price going to do AFTER the targets (1 or 2) are reached...As far as my trading style is concerned, I will go short from here ONLY if my case-area break with confidence. Then I will look for your targets having in my mind the correction levels in between for w4 and/or W4.Then, after finishing this big wave 1 down, we can expect a bigger W2 correction - EG would you be so kind to attach your count on this?
So I will be playing long more than short (btw I am hedging not using SL)
Generally ATM I am giving a 50-50 chance to both scenarios, BUT must say that I am leanning toward my-case ABC a little more. Why? I am using also other indicators to confirm my wave counts and right now I see this:
1. an interesting +D on the 1H
2. approaching strong S areas and meaningfull Fibs
3. strong trend line combined with the falling wedge
4. price movement looking impulsive upward and corrective downward
5. I think we have not finnished big B up yet (this is just my "IMHO"
)The bottom line is, if we trade this wisely with propper MM, we have a win-win situation only...
- #814
- Oct 21, 2007 7:22pm Oct 21, 2007 7:22pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Hey FxMt.
Thanks for your reply.
My mind is still floating now. I closed my short trade for 237 pips earlier @ 233.66 when it looked like it was retracing from 232.92. But then it dropped further down to 232.22 now.
But I am still ok with this. Now I have to work on my counts again and find a suitable re entry position.
But to add to the info on the charts I last posted with the possible target scenarios, the following levels may be added to take note of.
Monthly Pivot was @ 232.71
Weekly S1 @ 231.72
76.4% fib projection downwards @ 231.58 based on Friday and sunday's overall hi-lo range
Stochastics up t the Daily TF are on overspld levels while Weekly has gone above the 50 level..... But it has crossed its 2 lines and has formed a hook down which could be start of a cross back down below the 50 Line level.
EG
Thanks for your reply.
My mind is still floating now. I closed my short trade for 237 pips earlier @ 233.66 when it looked like it was retracing from 232.92. But then it dropped further down to 232.22 now.
But I am still ok with this. Now I have to work on my counts again and find a suitable re entry position.
But to add to the info on the charts I last posted with the possible target scenarios, the following levels may be added to take note of.
Monthly Pivot was @ 232.71
Weekly S1 @ 231.72
76.4% fib projection downwards @ 231.58 based on Friday and sunday's overall hi-lo range
Stochastics up t the Daily TF are on overspld levels while Weekly has gone above the 50 level..... But it has crossed its 2 lines and has formed a hook down which could be start of a cross back down below the 50 Line level.
EG
- #815
- Oct 21, 2007 8:44pm Oct 21, 2007 8:44pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
what bothers my count now is the 4? Aqua which has over lapped with 1 Aqua. This invalidates my Aqua count for the wave 3 down or the wave c down of FxMt.
....unless a bigger wave 33 yellow is forming.
Current Observations
Daily shows a 78.6 retracement from the move from 229.72 - 240.66. This smells more like a wave 2 retracement. and FxMt is probably correct with his ABC corrective wave wave 2 for the continued move UPWARD by this pair in the Big Wave C UP.
on the 4h chart we also see that price has over shot the downward wedge.
I would be watching for the following potential developments.
1. formation of a 4h candlestick with a long shadow 1.5x longer or more than body. followed by a bullish engulfing candle at close. this I would consider as a signal confirmation that we are back on the uptrend or at the very least towards closing the GAP that we had earlier.
2. My wave 5 of wave c down target has been reached 232.22 which is between FE 261.8 and FE 300.0 ( 232.46 - 231.62 ). But I have to remember that my 4? Aqua violated the wave 4 rule. SO a furrther down move may still be possible.
3. Potential of retracing towards the 229.72 level which is the origin of wave 1 of wave C up. this means that FxMt's ABC correction for wave 2 may be possible till the origin of wave 1 @ 229.72
I am still staying out of the market with my trades until I get convinced on the direction this pair is going to go.
EG
....unless a bigger wave 33 yellow is forming.
Current Observations
Daily shows a 78.6 retracement from the move from 229.72 - 240.66. This smells more like a wave 2 retracement. and FxMt is probably correct with his ABC corrective wave wave 2 for the continued move UPWARD by this pair in the Big Wave C UP.
on the 4h chart we also see that price has over shot the downward wedge.
I would be watching for the following potential developments.
1. formation of a 4h candlestick with a long shadow 1.5x longer or more than body. followed by a bullish engulfing candle at close. this I would consider as a signal confirmation that we are back on the uptrend or at the very least towards closing the GAP that we had earlier.
2. My wave 5 of wave c down target has been reached 232.22 which is between FE 261.8 and FE 300.0 ( 232.46 - 231.62 ). But I have to remember that my 4? Aqua violated the wave 4 rule. SO a furrther down move may still be possible.
3. Potential of retracing towards the 229.72 level which is the origin of wave 1 of wave C up. this means that FxMt's ABC correction for wave 2 may be possible till the origin of wave 1 @ 229.72
I am still staying out of the market with my trades until I get convinced on the direction this pair is going to go.
EG
- #816
- Oct 21, 2007 9:12pm Oct 21, 2007 9:12pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Here is something to think about.
I was reviewing my guidelines and was looking at the limits for Wave C projection because up to now I can not "fix" the Aqua wave 4?
BAsed on the guideline a wave c which is more than 161.8% of wave is more likely to be in an impulsive pattern rather than in a corrective pattern.
This means that if this move down exceeds 230.97 (161.8% of wave A blue ) then this is more likely to be a wave 3 which would bring us tio the tthe target range of up to 229.13
We would then see a retracement of around 38.2% up.
So now I have 2 overlapping guidelines:
the Projection for wave c in a Zigzag wave 2 and
the Retracement limit for a Zigzag wave 2
The earliest signal will be the higher than 161.8% retracement which is that of going lowe rthan 230.97
Butthe clearest signal that we are in the long term bear move is if price goes lower than 229.72
EG
I was reviewing my guidelines and was looking at the limits for Wave C projection because up to now I can not "fix" the Aqua wave 4?
BAsed on the guideline a wave c which is more than 161.8% of wave is more likely to be in an impulsive pattern rather than in a corrective pattern.
This means that if this move down exceeds 230.97 (161.8% of wave A blue ) then this is more likely to be a wave 3 which would bring us tio the tthe target range of up to 229.13
We would then see a retracement of around 38.2% up.
So now I have 2 overlapping guidelines:
the Projection for wave c in a Zigzag wave 2 and
the Retracement limit for a Zigzag wave 2
The earliest signal will be the higher than 161.8% retracement which is that of going lowe rthan 230.97
Butthe clearest signal that we are in the long term bear move is if price goes lower than 229.72
EG
- #817
- Oct 22, 2007 7:18am Oct 22, 2007 7:18am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Here is something to think about.
I was reviewing my guidelines and was looking at the limits for Wave C projection because up to now I can not "fix" the Aqua wave 4?
BAsed on the guideline a wave c which is more than 161.8% of wave is more likely to be in an impulsive pattern rather than in a corrective pattern.
This means that if this move down exceeds 230.97 (161.8% of wave A blue ) then this is more likely to be a wave 3 which would bring us tio the tthe target range of up to 229.13
We would then see a retracement of around 38.2% up.
So now I have 2 overlapping guidelines:
the Projection for wave c in a Zigzag wave 2 and
the Retracement limit for a Zigzag wave 2
The earliest signal will be the higher than 161.8% retracement which is that of going lower than 230.97
Butthe clearest signal that we are in the long term bear move is if price goes lower than 229.72
EG
Lowest so far has been 230.31 that clears the first signal.
waiting for the second signal at 229.71 which is just 50 pips down the last low.
then I am more confident that this is going to lower than 219.31
But we should be looking at a corrective wave 4 before the long plunge.
EG
- #818
- Oct 22, 2007 7:36am Oct 22, 2007 7:36am
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Based on my EW Count,
Pair is due for a corrective wave 4 which I believe was validated by the 15m pinbar that reached 230.31 on my chart.
I am looking for it to retrace towards the 38.2 - 50% of wave 3 ( 233.33 - 234.26.
But if you note on the chart I posted below 233.90 is at the 61.8% level if the move from the origin of my wave c inside the big wave B up @ 240.66
minimum target will be towards 233.33 before this proceeds with the wave 5 aqua going down to complete the blue wave 3 which is in the range of 231 - 229.16
By the way, I get reminded that I am looking forward to a wave 4 . thios means that I should also be looking at the wave 4 to end very near the level of the sub wave 4 of the previous wave 3 and this sub wave 4 of wave 3 ended at 234.42 which is between the 50% and 45% fibo retracement of wave 3.
So a better TP to look forward to is at the 50% level retracement at 234.26 for those brave enough to believe this count.
EG
Pair is due for a corrective wave 4 which I believe was validated by the 15m pinbar that reached 230.31 on my chart.
I am looking for it to retrace towards the 38.2 - 50% of wave 3 ( 233.33 - 234.26.
But if you note on the chart I posted below 233.90 is at the 61.8% level if the move from the origin of my wave c inside the big wave B up @ 240.66
minimum target will be towards 233.33 before this proceeds with the wave 5 aqua going down to complete the blue wave 3 which is in the range of 231 - 229.16
By the way, I get reminded that I am looking forward to a wave 4 . thios means that I should also be looking at the wave 4 to end very near the level of the sub wave 4 of the previous wave 3 and this sub wave 4 of wave 3 ended at 234.42 which is between the 50% and 45% fibo retracement of wave 3.
So a better TP to look forward to is at the 50% level retracement at 234.26 for those brave enough to believe this count.
EG
- #819
- Oct 22, 2007 6:16pm Oct 22, 2007 6:16pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
0707 Asia
GBPJPY
Based on my EW count, there is still potential to go up for this pair to complete the 5 wave impulse of the wwave c up.
Wave 4 down may still be completing.
So as this pair goes up, I will be looking towards the 38.2% level @ 233.33
Note that a Guideline I use for projecting C is by looking for the 61.8, 100 and 161.8% relationship to wave a.
looking aT THE LAST 15M CHART, we see here the 61.8 was surpassed but did not look subjectively correct to be considered as a mature retracement.
the continued expansion of the corrective weave seem near mature to go up and complete it now
And by looking and making a micro ew count down to the 1minute chart, it would look like irt is still finishing its wave 4 down on the 1minute chart.
so the wave 5 up could either land on the TP1 or go further up to TP2.
EG
GBPJPY
Based on my EW count, there is still potential to go up for this pair to complete the 5 wave impulse of the wwave c up.
Wave 4 down may still be completing.
So as this pair goes up, I will be looking towards the 38.2% level @ 233.33
Note that a Guideline I use for projecting C is by looking for the 61.8, 100 and 161.8% relationship to wave a.
looking aT THE LAST 15M CHART, we see here the 61.8 was surpassed but did not look subjectively correct to be considered as a mature retracement.
the continued expansion of the corrective weave seem near mature to go up and complete it now
And by looking and making a micro ew count down to the 1minute chart, it would look like irt is still finishing its wave 4 down on the 1minute chart.
so the wave 5 up could either land on the TP1 or go further up to TP2.
EG
- #820
- Oct 22, 2007 6:39pm Oct 22, 2007 6:39pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,021 Posts
Based on Wave 4 Rules:
Maximum target is at the end of previous wave 1 @ 236.64. However, this is over 261.8% of wave a already for this wave c.
Like I mentioned earlier, maximum relationship between wave a and wave c is 161.8%. Meaning, wave c can only be up to 161.8% of wave a. if wave c is more than 161.8% of wave a, then this is not a corrective wave any more but an iompulse wave.....
and this means that there is a trend reversal.
However, the higher time frame has already broken the wave c to wave a relationship by exceeding 161.8% so over all the trend is still going down.
But should this relationship / guideline be violated here, then I would look at it as a development of a much bigger wave pattern for this pair to go down.
EG
Maximum target is at the end of previous wave 1 @ 236.64. However, this is over 261.8% of wave a already for this wave c.
Like I mentioned earlier, maximum relationship between wave a and wave c is 161.8%. Meaning, wave c can only be up to 161.8% of wave a. if wave c is more than 161.8% of wave a, then this is not a corrective wave any more but an iompulse wave.....
and this means that there is a trend reversal.
However, the higher time frame has already broken the wave c to wave a relationship by exceeding 161.8% so over all the trend is still going down.
But should this relationship / guideline be violated here, then I would look at it as a development of a much bigger wave pattern for this pair to go down.
EG
