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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #35,521
  • Oct 15, 2007 5:29pm Oct 15, 2007 5:29pm
Quoting cesarnc
Fed is not doing that for full 5 years. I don't believe Oct 15, 2007 was in their agenda for the turnaround LOL...
Got that cesarnc, well then waiting for the impulse. Hope it comes.

Peter the question was if there is a place where they say the results or when the G7 meetings take place.
Risk Less in the next transaction after a Win.
  • #35,522
  • Oct 15, 2007 5:33pm Oct 15, 2007 5:33pm
Quoting Scrat
depends on the timeframe. if we're talking about daily chart, then i see a daily wave down (from 2.0493, wave C on the chart) to below 1.9650. it's not looking like a correction, but more like an impulse.
This does look like it could be good for a turnaround for the longer term. Im sorry for that post too. I meant to say "Look at the 4 hour chart" instead of "look now" ....sleep deprivation...lol It retraced almost to the level that I had stated previously of 0390, but stopped a little early at 2.0404. For the short term, hours to days, Im still thinking we should see a little bit more to the upside. Hopefully we could break out of this range to the upside and a little past 500. Then, perhaps, if we get a reason, we could go short. Till then, Im sticking with long however if we would break out of the range.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #35,523
  • Oct 15, 2007 5:34pm Oct 15, 2007 5:34pm
Quoting madalin
Got that cesarnc, well then waiting for the impulse. Hope it comes.

Peter the question was if there is a place where they say the results or when the G7 meetings take place.
It's on Friday. The time is tentative according to FF. Probably early morning. I would think around 8 AM Eastern time.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #35,524
  • Oct 15, 2007 5:36pm Oct 15, 2007 5:36pm
Quoting mike w
This does look like it could be good for a turnaround for the longer term. Im sorry for that post too. I meant to say "Look at the 4 hour chart" instead of "look now" ....sleep deprivation...lol It retraced almost to the level that I had stated previously of 0390, but stopped a little early at 2.0404. For the short term, hours to days, Im still thinking we should see a little bit more to the upside. Hopefully we could break out of this range to the upside and a little past 500. Then, perhaps, if we get a reason, we could go short. Till then, Im sticking with long however if we would break out of the range.
Part of that little "Impulse" may have to do with 2 planes colliding on the runway at Heathrow. The world "Impulse" is to immediately think attack, but this does not look like an attack, merely an accident. Although, I am short on the pair, so "Impulse" or not, I hope it starts a bit of momentum for this pair.
  • #35,525
  • Oct 15, 2007 5:40pm Oct 15, 2007 5:40pm
if we're talking about h1 charts, then yes, a retracement is due to 23.6 (2.0391) or 38.2 (2.0363) to complete wave b from the current h4 cycle. then up again (wave c) to finish the current h4 cycle and then down towards 1.9650.
this is my scenario. but... we all know price can go anywhere.

p.s. looks like you already made a post. it is similar to what i think it will happen on the short term.

Quoting mike w
Scrat, what would you consider a correction? I'm asking in sincerity. I would look at a correction, not only as a full reversal, but as a retracement also. I could see a retracement possibility (albeit, a very small one). Look now, I doubt it would retrace further than to 0390 area. Thanks.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #35,526
  • Oct 15, 2007 5:41pm Oct 15, 2007 5:41pm
Quoting mike w
It's on Friday. The time is tentative according to FF. Probably early morning. I would think around 8 AM Eastern time.
Ooo FED where Bernake spits the beans, now i know the meeting, didn't know i was named G7, well till then maybe GU stays in the channel , anyways till tomorrow morning is either at 2.05 or making the impulse. Not to many signs right now.
Risk Less in the next transaction after a Win.
  • #35,527
  • Oct 15, 2007 5:43pm Oct 15, 2007 5:43pm
Quoting Scrat
if we're talking about h1 charts, then yes, a retracement is due to 23.6 (2.0391) or 38.2 (2.0363) to complete wave b from the current h4 cycle. then up again (wave c) to finish the current h4 cycle and then down towards 1.9650.
this is my scenario. but... we all know price can go anywhere.
I am basically thinking the same way you are about this pair right now. I'm just trying to find an attainable target for the Wave C to end at. Nice analysis Scrat! I'm going to start looking at the longer term movement as you have and see if I come up with the same outcome, and either way I will post it here.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #35,528
  • Oct 15, 2007 5:45pm Oct 15, 2007 5:45pm
This is not a time to guess about cable. Recent weak CPIs spurred cable bears, no matter what. It is one huge theme whether or not BOE's cycle has reached an end.

To add to the complication, the recent BOE subprime FRANCHISE-SIZED F**KUP spurred cut sentiment, that turned around to the upside again with recent statements from BOE.

Therefore, trade any deviation from the forecast like there was no tomorrow. Forecast 1,9%, 1,7% cement 2007 hike cycle's grave, 2.1% will bring bulls back to life. Yes, it's life or death trade for cable tomorrow...
  • #35,529
  • Edited 6:13pm Oct 15, 2007 5:57pm | Edited 6:13pm
well, we will be able to think about wave c when we see where wave b ends. from my point of view, this h1 retracement is not over yet; it just started.
now, since the actual h4 wave is a corrective one, chances are we'll see a rather big correction on h1 - 0.618 to 0.786, so 2.0363 to 2.0286 (yes, that low...). then, to see where wave c would complete... run a fibo between waves a and b... it gives me 2.0455 to 2.0475.

@cesarnc: sorry... can't stop guessing, this range is way too boring. but my charts look nice, don't they?

Quoting mike w
I am basically thinking the same way you are about this pair right now. I'm just trying to find an attainable target for the Wave C to end at. Nice analysis Scrat! I'm going to start looking at the longer term movement as you have and see if I come up with the same outcome, and either way I will post it here.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #35,530
  • Oct 15, 2007 6:09pm Oct 15, 2007 6:09pm
No one hurt in the 2 planes (BA 747 and a Sri Lanka A340) that collided on runway at Heathrow. Just pride.
  • #35,531
  • Oct 15, 2007 6:10pm Oct 15, 2007 6:10pm
Quoting Scrat
well, we will be able to think about wave c when we see where wave b ends. from my point of view, this h1 retracement is not over yet; it just started.
now, since the actual h4 wave is a corrective one, chances are we'll see a rather big correction on h1 - 0.618 to 0.786, so 2.0363 to 2.0286 (yes, that low...). then, to see where wave c would complete... run a fibo between waves a and b... it gives me 2.0455 to 2.0475.

@cesarnc: sorry... can't stop guessing, this is way too boring. but my charts look nice, don't they?
Yes they do... But my eyes are glued in the bullish flag in the daily, that's all. Strong CPI, the trigger.

On the downside, hard to tell whether or not it would go much lower. Likely to trigger those wave counts you guys are taking about, in case USD bearish sentiment remains...

As we speak, some quick dollar selling going on... I don't think Bernanke is talking dovish. I think he's talking BS-ish.
  • #35,532
  • Oct 15, 2007 6:12pm Oct 15, 2007 6:12pm
Wave z or wave 65... Whatever... No shit... I am waving myself into bed...
.
  • #35,533
  • Oct 15, 2007 6:16pm Oct 15, 2007 6:16pm
Quoting bullrock
Wave z or wave 65... Whatever... No shit... I am waving myself into bed...
That's probably the safest way to play it right now
  • #35,534
  • Oct 15, 2007 8:13pm Oct 15, 2007 8:13pm
anyone in long i have put my order @ 2.0425. For short my order is @ 2.0365.
Regards,
Bksujal
  • #35,535
  • Edited 10:23pm Oct 15, 2007 9:40pm | Edited 10:23pm
[DJ]A senior economist at the Standard & Poor's Ratings Service said Tuesday that the U.S. Federal Reserve may lower its federal funds rate by another 25 basis points sometime in December or January.

David Wyss, chief economist at S&P, told reporters that the U.S. economy may slow this year and right into next year. Wyss said U.S. economic growth will remain around 2% in 2007 and 2008.

Wyss also said the growth prospects for Asian economies are strong. He said Asia's economic growth is expected to be around 7% in 2007 and 2008.

S&P: Asian Nations Will Take Steps To Slow Fast Dlr Fall
  • #35,536
  • Oct 15, 2007 10:29pm Oct 15, 2007 10:29pm
why everybody saying sell kiwi, sell kiwi!!

anyone trade kiwi pairs here??
  • #35,537
  • Oct 15, 2007 10:46pm Oct 15, 2007 10:46pm
Quoting benssol
why everybody saying sell kiwi, sell kiwi!!

anyone trade kiwi pairs here??

Yup,

I was SHOCKED to see it drop below 7670. eur/nzd is flying high
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #35,538
  • Oct 15, 2007 11:05pm Oct 15, 2007 11:05pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Yup,

I was SHOCKED to see it drop below 7670. eur/nzd is flying high
it resting now on a great trendline on 4H TF and made a three high wave candles on this point, so may be this is the end of the drop, the same for EN, GN, NCHF
but sites saying it will continue !!
  • #35,539
  • Oct 16, 2007 12:30am Oct 16, 2007 12:30am
Quoting benssol
it resting now on a great trendline on 4H TF and made a three high wave candles on this point, so may be this is the end of the drop, the same for EN, GN, NCHF
but sites saying it will continue !!
No offense but who cares who is saying what. It might continue when the trendline is broken.
.
  • #35,540
  • Oct 16, 2007 12:39am Oct 16, 2007 12:39am
Quoting bullrock
No offense but who cares who is saying what. It might continue when the trendline is broken.
sure
if the first hook low taked then it will continue, no one said something else

what I said are just signs that MAY BE signal a long upon the breakout of the upside high wave bars
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