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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #2,741
  • Dec 20, 2006 10:11am Dec 20, 2006 10:11am
Went long @1.9661.
  • #2,742
  • Dec 20, 2006 10:11am Dec 20, 2006 10:11am
Quoting notme32
ok thx, i try get the bounce.... 20 is enough .
Good job!
  • #2,743
  • Dec 20, 2006 10:14am Dec 20, 2006 10:14am
No one can predict what the market will do. Using TA we can isolate the probability to our favor. On yesterday the market moved the opposite of the news. Which means we have have to be open to probabilities and have techniques like the straddle to compensate for days when TA's don't necessarily work. Not assume that we know why the market is doing what it is doing. Mark Douglas (The Disciplined Trader) says learning to make money without knowing why the market is doing what it is doing is the beginning of trade mastery.

ON Money Management.
I took a hit as well. Almost 20% of my account. However, I know better.
Best practice money management rules say never risk more than 2-3% of your account. I hadn't done that and won't do it again. However, I was trying to hit a home run and got caught swinging at a bad pitch.
For me the problem was accepting a 300 dollar loss that turned into a 500 hundred dollar loss hoping for the market to swing back. If you got a system that "WORKS" don't go for the homerun until you are up 30 to 40% on your account. (Paraphrasing Stanley Druckenmiller as quoted in the New Market Wizards book."
Then if your convictions are really strong go for 50% or 100%. Otherwise we small fry can't afford to take those kinds of losses.

I read a post here on money management chararacterizing the attitude of major money managers. In essence the post said that the major money managers are handling their funds very rationally and not making unusual or irrational speculative moves. (Otherwise they would be out of job or never even have gotten it)Thus they keep their emotions in check.
I imagine these are the fund managers who are very successful and make consistent and steady gains. Looking for a job while I build my account the right way! Learning to treat my trading like a business.

Comments
  • #2,744
  • Dec 20, 2006 10:14am Dec 20, 2006 10:14am
Quoting MoneyMa$ter
See posts #2711 and 2714 from earlier today in this thread.
If someone knew where a pair will stop going further, then he would be a multi millionaire, not say a multi billionaire! Nobody knows that, it is all prediction and the point is to protect your wins and in case it goes down have more wins, in case it goes to a certain position up, just stoping the trade with stop loss!

Just see what happened yesterday... the pair came up all the way from 1.9469 to 1.9705, a 246 pip move in just a single day, so to get a better idea who is behind this big move think about people like me and you, but not placing orders of $1 or $5 pip per trade but $2,000 or much more per pip.
So yesterday the big guys that sold the cable instead of buying it want revenge back!
If you look on 4 hour chart all through the year, you will notice that all moves end up in a triangle, trend up, a rest, trend down where the trend up started!
Surely there are exceptions like what happend recently with cable moved up more than 1000 pips and trend down was much shorter, but you see, what moves up, will finally move down.. this is a universal law!

Just protect your profit (if you got any) and take it easy!
Pips till you drop ........... !!
  • #2,745
  • Dec 20, 2006 10:16am Dec 20, 2006 10:16am
Quoting kappa
Went long @1.9661.
Careful kappa.

You could be correct OR .... this may just be a momentary pause as cable continues south to the 23 fib (approx 9609ish).
  • #2,746
  • Dec 20, 2006 10:21am Dec 20, 2006 10:21am
I think the 1.9747 was the highest for some time now. That was something that someone predicted earlier on in this thread, before a move down should start. Seems the market has fullfilled itself.
  • #2,747
  • Dec 20, 2006 10:25am Dec 20, 2006 10:25am
Quoting forexmaster55
If someone knew where a pair will stop going further, then he would be a multi millionaire, not say a multi billionaire! Nobody knows that, it is all prediction and the point is to protect your wins and in case it goes down have more wins, in case it goes to a certain position up, just stoping the trade with stop loss!
....

Just protect your profit (if you got any) and take it easy!
My primary tool is prayer. My attitude always positive. Then I consider TA within the broader context of FA, in addition to selected EAs based on whether the market is ranging or trending.
  • #2,748
  • Dec 20, 2006 10:27am Dec 20, 2006 10:27am
Thx again Money$master, i guess 9615 is enough.


on the bounce i only take 13, ... heheh . still enough.
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #2,749
  • Dec 20, 2006 10:28am Dec 20, 2006 10:28am
I put in an order early this morning to go short @ 1.9685. It triggered a little while ago. I plan to TP @ around 1.9610ish It is the second fib line from the move up yesterday. It also happens to coincide with a fib line from the big move up cable had from late november to early december. What do you guys think?
  • #2,750
  • Dec 20, 2006 10:35am Dec 20, 2006 10:35am
Quoting mpathare
I plan to TP @ around 1.9610ish It is the second fib line from the move up yesterday. It also happens to coincide with a fib line from the big move up cable had from late november to early december. What do you guys think?
My TP as well. Around 1.9619, Pivot Point for day.
  • #2,751
  • Dec 20, 2006 10:35am Dec 20, 2006 10:35am
Quoting mpathare
I put in an order early this morning to go short @ 1.9685. It triggered a little while ago. I plan to TP @ around 1.9610ish It is the second fib line from the move up yesterday. It also happens to coincide with a fib line from the big move up cable had from late november to early december. What do you guys think?
mpathare,

That was the plan from earlier today and continues in play. If you haven't already done so and depending on your risk tolerance, I would revise the SL and lock in some profit.

Gotta go. Trade well and prosper everyone.
  • #2,752
  • Dec 20, 2006 10:37am Dec 20, 2006 10:37am
I had a sell order in @ the base of yesterday's Asian session also. Normally I would be confident in the move. The price action appears to be favoring the sell also. Concerned with the choppiness of it though. Therefore I have set stop @ BE with a 10 pip trail. I am just going to let it play out.
  • #2,753
  • Dec 20, 2006 10:40am Dec 20, 2006 10:40am
Quoting mpathare
I put in an order early this morning to go short @ 1.9685. It triggered a little while ago. I plan to TP @ around 1.9610ish It is the second fib line from the move up yesterday. It also happens to coincide with a fib line from the big move up cable had from late november to early december. What do you guys think?
Got in at nearly the same point - i'll only take my stopp closer, never taking targets, but at 1.96 i'll double with a stop, that the whole position will be killed at 10 pips profit - pyramiding.
  • #2,754
  • Dec 20, 2006 10:44am Dec 20, 2006 10:44am
Quoting blueray1957
No one can predict what the market will do. Using TA we can isolate the probability to our favor. On yesterday the market moved the opposite of the news. Which means we have have to be open to probabilities and have techniques like the straddle to compensate for days when TA's don't necessarily work. Not assume that we know why the market is doing what it is doing. Mark Douglas (The Disciplined Trader) says learning to make money without knowing why the market is doing what it is doing is the beginning of trade mastery.

ON Money Management.
I took a hit as well. Almost 20% of my account. However, I know better.
Best practice money management rules say never risk more than 2-3% of your account. I hadn't done that and won't do it again. However, I was trying to hit a home run and got caught swinging at a bad pitch.
For me the problem was accepting a 300 dollar loss that turned into a 500 hundred dollar loss hoping for the market to swing back. If you got a system that "WORKS" don't go for the homerun until you are up 30 to 40% on your account. (Paraphrasing Stanley Druckenmiller as quoted in the New Market Wizards book."
Then if your convictions are really strong go for 50% or 100%. Otherwise we small fry can't afford to take those kinds of losses.

I read a post here on money management chararacterizing the attitude of major money managers. In essence the post said that the major money managers are handling their funds very rationally and not making unusual or irrational speculative moves. (Otherwise they would be out of job or never even have gotten it)Thus they keep their emotions in check.
I imagine these are the fund managers who are very successful and make consistent and steady gains. Looking for a job while I build my account the right way! Learning to treat my trading like a business.

Comments
blueray,

I agree with a lot of what you "quote". However, one area that I am in conflict is when you paraphrase Stanley Druckenmiller; If you got a system that "WORKS" don't go for the homerun until you are up 30 to 40% on your account. (Paraphrasing Stanley Druckenmiller as quoted in the New Market Wizards book."

My position is, why would you ever go for a home run? It takes traders a lot of hard work, study, research, patience, discipline....and "balls" to enter into his world of forex trading with real money. To obtain gains of 1%-5% per trade without a doubt, requires a descent degree of experience to do it successfully, consistantly. I do have a system that I am more than confident in, but not in a million years would I expose myself for a "home run" and risk the 30%-40% I am up, or even 10% of my account for that matter. I'll take my gains and my losses at a steady and moderate pace...winning more than losing, applying money management with small percentages of capital exposed at any one time. I'll continue to allow my account to grow in a "2 steps forward 1 step back" approach. This isn't a sprint for me, it's a ultra distance marathon. On the contrary to Mr. Druckenmillers' comment, as my account grows, I'll even further reduce my exposure, limiting lot positions, limiting my risk, and securing a future in this business of FX. These are my only my ideas, conservative in nature within an unpredictable and high risk business, trying to make it a high probability and low risk business.

Northpro
  • #2,755
  • Dec 20, 2006 10:47am Dec 20, 2006 10:47am
I'm shorting it, too... 9652, as this was the first reasonable, justifiable place this baby reached since yesterday.

Alarms ALL OOOVVERRR the chart, though
  • #2,756
  • Dec 20, 2006 10:49am Dec 20, 2006 10:49am
Quoting fxkenny
I had a sell order in @ the base of yesterday's Asian session also. Normally I would be confident in the move. The price action appears to be favoring the sell also. Concerned with the choppiness of it though. Therefore I have set stop @ BE with a 10 pip trail. I am just going to let it play out.
This is exactly what I just did. Moved stop to 1.9680 (BE) 10 pip trail.
  • #2,757
  • Dec 20, 2006 10:51am Dec 20, 2006 10:51am
Quoting mpathare
This is exactly what I just did. Moved stop to 1.9680 (BE) 10 pip trail.
Do "Great Minds" think alike, or are we just full of it ??
  • #2,758
  • Dec 20, 2006 10:53am Dec 20, 2006 10:53am
Amen
Quoting Northpro
blueray,

I agree with a lot of what you "quote". However, one area that I am in conflict is when you paraphrase Stanley Druckenmiller; If you got a system that "WORKS" don't go for the homerun until you are up 30 to 40% on your account. (Paraphrasing Stanley Druckenmiller as quoted in the New Market Wizards book."

My position is, why would you ever go for a home run? It takes traders a lot of hard work, study, research, patience, discipline....and "balls" to enter into his world of forex trading with real money. To obtain gains of 1%-5% per trade without a doubt, requires a descent degree of experience to do it successfully, consistantly. I do have a system that I am more than confident in, but not in a million years would I expose myself for a "home run" and risk the 30%-40% I am up, or even 10% of my account for that matter. I'll take my gains and my losses at a steady and moderate pace...winning more than losing, applying money management with small percentages of capital exposed at any one time. I'll continue to allow my account to grow in a "2 steps forward 1 step back" approach. This isn't a sprint for me, it's a ultra distance marathon. On the contrary to Mr. Druckenmillers' comment, as my account grows, I'll even further reduce my exposure, limiting lot positions, limiting my risk, and securing a future in this business of FX. These are my only my ideas, conservative in nature within an unpredictable and high risk business, trying to make it a high probability and low risk business.

Northpro

  • #2,759
  • Dec 20, 2006 10:55am Dec 20, 2006 10:55am
Quoting fxkenny
Do "Great Minds" think alike, or are we just full of it ??
Sshhhhhh! Dont jinx it!
  • #2,760
  • Dec 20, 2006 11:03am Dec 20, 2006 11:03am
EURUSD 1.3170 fib .382 was held. Cable will go upside too, so I belive. I hope this uptrend to continue.
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