Thoughts on USD/CHF for this week? | Forex Factory

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Thoughts on USD/CHF for this week?

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 14, 2007 2:53pm Oct 14, 2007 2:53pm
Hey Everyone. I am currently Short the usd/chf (-65 pips so far) and i am curious about how it's gonna play out.

The Sunday (10/14) technicals are showing a 4hr. downtrend in play but i see the COT sentiment charts are showing institutional investors as long with an uptrending sentiment line.

So i am debating wether to hold position according to the technicals or listen to the COT charts.

Any thoughts?



- Ron
  • #2
  • Oct 14, 2007 3:27pm Oct 14, 2007 3:27pm
Quoting TraderRon
Hey Everyone. I am currently Short the usd/chf (-65 pips so far) and i am curious about how it's gonna play out.

The Sunday (10/14) technicals are showing a 4hr. downtrend in play but i see the COT sentiment charts are showing institutional investors as long with an uptrending sentiment line.

So i am debating wether to hold position according to the technicals or listen to the COT charts.

Any thoughts?



- Ron
I do not follow institutional investors they are terrible at market turns. Instead, try follow the commercials. Near term I see usd/chf as bullish from the COT data, but lets not forget the long term trend is down.
Take a report.
  • #3
  • Oct 14, 2007 4:16pm Oct 14, 2007 4:16pm
I plan to go long on CHF with a minimum target to my red 62 ema... yes trend is down, so bullish may not get far, but hopefully good for a few pips... For me, until price goes overbought on slow stoch
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  • #4
  • Oct 14, 2007 4:18pm Oct 14, 2007 4:18pm
I say listen to cateful !!!


Quoting TraderRon
Hey Everyone. I am currently Short the usd/chf (-65 pips so far) and i am curious about how it's gonna play out.

The Sunday (10/14) technicals are showing a 4hr. downtrend in play but i see the COT sentiment charts are showing institutional investors as long with an uptrending sentiment line.

So i am debating wether to hold position according to the technicals or listen to the COT charts.

Any thoughts?



- Ron
  • #5
  • Oct 14, 2007 4:45pm Oct 14, 2007 4:45pm
-65 pips so i guess you are short somewhere from below 1.1800.
As i can see now market is undecided,fighting in range with more $ bears still in control but i am expecting to see usdchf over 1.19;possible target for me would be for long 1.1950.
You did not tell us what margin % you use in that trade,what stop you can afford so it is hard to help.
It is possible from 4 hour chart to bounce back down around lower boolinger band at 1.1795 so i would try to exit that trade there as boolinger bands are flat (squeezed) on 4 hr. First look at the calendar for this week and try to figure out what to expect from the market.
Also monitor gold as it is related to chf.

For me what ever time frame i am using to trade -65 is big lose.If my trade is losing over 40 pips usdchf i exit and look for better entry.
  • #6
  • Oct 14, 2007 5:04pm Oct 14, 2007 5:04pm
yes, in the situation like this i'd rather stay flat and wait for the retracement to be over and go short again. But that's just me. Money management and risk control is far more important than entry in my opinion. If 60+pips is less than 2% of your account you can hang on to it but if it's 10% of your account you might want to cut your losses. You can get back in any time you want it only takes a mouse click.
Take a report.
  • #7
  • Oct 14, 2007 5:54pm Oct 14, 2007 5:54pm
Quoting TraderRon
Hey Everyone. I am currently Short the usd/chf (-65 pips so far) and i am curious about how it's gonna play out.

The Sunday (10/14) technicals are showing a 4hr. downtrend in play but i see the COT sentiment charts are showing institutional investors as long with an uptrending sentiment line.

So i am debating wether to hold position according to the technicals or listen to the COT charts.

Any thoughts?



- Ron
It sounds like u need to work on your strategy before trading. You need a set of rules that you can stick to. This way your rules will tell you what you should do in this kinda situation.
  • #8
  • Oct 14, 2007 6:35pm Oct 14, 2007 6:35pm
you guys are awesome. Your insights are making me a better trader every day. Money management and entry points are indeed sticking points for me which i'm currently working on and fine tuning with every trade.

My margin though is only 400:1 (1 lot) which equals about .08 cents per pip so its Not a do or die situation. I was playing the $/chf aggressively more for practice - but i obviously would have been screwed if i had decided to take a strong position.

I set my stop to 1.9000 which is about a $10 loss which won't hurt my total equity in any way shape or form. In fact it's about .01% so it's no biggie. You live and you learn.

Anyway, When i decide to take a strong position on a pair you can make sure i'll be checking in with the community first to get your thoughts.


I really don't use Bolinger's that often but i'm gonna start incorporating it into my strategy.

I'll be keeping an eye on the news as usual and thanks for the tip DeepDrunk. I'll keep an eye on Gold as well. I didn't realize that chf and gold were tightly correlated.




- Ron
  • #9
  • Oct 15, 2007 12:30am Oct 15, 2007 12:30am
Quote
I didn't realize that chf and gold were tightly correlated.

not always but often,also look how gbpchf,eurchf moves before deciding to short usdchf;as you know or maybe not usdchf is still carry trade pair due to interest rates.take care and good luck
  • #10
  • Oct 15, 2007 2:42am Oct 15, 2007 2:42am
From a long term perspective, as long as 1.1900 holds I favor shorts on USDCHF.
  • #11
  • Oct 28, 2007 9:24am Oct 28, 2007 9:24am
I'm planning to go Long sometime this week, or maybe right from the beginning of the week.

I know trend is bearish, but I'm expecting a good correction starting this week.

What do ya'll think?
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #12
  • Last Post: Oct 28, 2007 10:16am Oct 28, 2007 10:16am
I think this bearish will carry shxt break thru below 1.1600 somehow. Good luck
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