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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #35,341
  • Oct 13, 2007 9:57am Oct 13, 2007 9:57am
Quoting Moe
we can risk a long mabe for 100-125 pips up then any sign of a downtrend il jump on the train.
What bothers me about cable is that UK and US fundamentals are not in tandem anymore.

When this US cut poped, UK's rate bias changed to cut (Northern Rock event).

Now that BOE gave some early and light indication that hike's may be not over, cut from Fed in October is being slowly ruled out.

Anyways, if we get strong data from UK and Fed doesn't cut -> T-R-I-A-N-G-L-E again

Fundamentals in tandem is what sticked this rocket in euro's ass lately. Fed biased to cut + hawkish ECB: Trend trader's paradise....
  • #35,342
  • Oct 13, 2007 10:31am Oct 13, 2007 10:31am
Quoting cesarnc
What bothers me about cable is that UK and US fundamentals are not in tandem anymore.

When this US cut poped, UK's rate bias changed to cut (Northern Rock event).

Now that BOE gave some early and light indication that hike's may be not over, cut from Fed in October is being slowly ruled out.

Anyways, if we get strong data from UK and Fed doesn't cut -> T-R-I-A-N-G-L-E again

Fundamentals in tandem is what sticked this rocket in euro's ass lately. Fed biased to cut + hawkish ECB: Trend trader's paradise....
there's a huge breakout comming, everybody assume it will be up and that what im thinking, but the way cable been acting the last 3 month's it won't surprise me if it drops.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #35,343
  • Oct 13, 2007 1:28pm Oct 13, 2007 1:28pm
If the stock markets go down when the financial's release their losses, it could cause a carry unwind which nearly always makes cable go down. Its tough to call. If I had to call I would say a breakout to the upside is due. Just my 2 pips.
  • #35,344
  • Oct 13, 2007 1:41pm Oct 13, 2007 1:41pm
Quoting bullrock
Hi ClockTrader, what are you doing here. Thought you will be off for the week-end?

By the way. ALL price patterns are less than 50% reliable. Proven fact.
These price patterns, when used in congruence with other factors such as support/resistance and trendlines, etc. are much better than 50%. Just have to know what to look for thats all.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #35,345
  • Edited 3:15pm Oct 13, 2007 2:44pm | Edited 3:15pm
not long ago i promised a chart to justify my bearish view on cable (long term). here it is.
it looks like a weekly wave down has just started at 2.0652. we had a nice daily wave down to 1.9651, then another one up to 2.0493 (0.854 retracement) - this one is actually the entry of my short position.
next daily wave should go down below 1.9651; how much, i don't know. it can go to 1.9650 or as low as any of the fib levels on the chart:
- 0.382: 1.9276
- 0.5: 1.8851
- 0.618: 1.8425
- 0.786: 1.7820
let's see. i'm short @ 2.0470 and placed a SL above 2.0652.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #35,346
  • Oct 13, 2007 2:48pm Oct 13, 2007 2:48pm
and this is the daily chart, so you can see the daily waves better (see the brown dots where i put arrows). we already had one down and one up; the next one should go below 1.9651 and it already started.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #35,347
  • Oct 13, 2007 4:11pm Oct 13, 2007 4:11pm
Quoting mike w
These price patterns, when used in congruence with other factors such as support/resistance and trendlines, etc. are much better than 50%. Just have to know what to look for thats all.
Agree. I haven't said anything about what is the probability of the price patterns when verified with other tools like SR and other trendlines. etc etc...
.
  • #35,348
  • Oct 13, 2007 4:14pm Oct 13, 2007 4:14pm
predict, predict, predict, predict.... freakin' oracles
.
  • #35,349
  • Oct 13, 2007 5:29pm Oct 13, 2007 5:29pm
Quoting Moe
i would take anyone for president right now as long as we get the current idiot out of there.


Speaking of... we had to circle Miami for about 40 minutes before landing because the President was in the airfield (for unknown reasons).
All arriving and departing flights were 'on hold' - basically, the whole airport shut down while he was here.
Announcing the boarding of my next flight, the guy apologized for the delay and then made a tongue-in-cheek crack about 'shutting down the airport when this president is here'. The entire gate just busted up - it wasn't really that funny, it was just totally unexpected (and probably inappropriate) from an airline employee
British Airways scored a brownie point with me for that one... even though they lost ALL three of my bags!!!
Cable is my sugardaddy
  • #35,350
  • Oct 13, 2007 5:52pm Oct 13, 2007 5:52pm
Quoting bohogirl


Speaking of... we had to circle Miami for about 40 minutes before landing because the President was in the airfield (for unknown reasons).
All arriving and departing flights were 'on hold' - basically, the whole airport shut down while he was here.
Announcing the boarding of my next flight, the guy apologized for the delay and then made a tongue-in-cheek crack about 'shutting down the airport when this president is here'. The entire gate just busted up - it wasn't really that funny, it was just totally unexpected (and probably inappropriate) from an airline employee
British Airways scored a brownie point with me for that one... even though they lost ALL three of my bags!!!
See, bohogirl, how wee the dust and crap are affected by the gods and rulers???
.
  • #35,351
  • Oct 13, 2007 6:14pm Oct 13, 2007 6:14pm
Finnaly DST here in Brazil!

No more waking up at 5am

Waking up at 6am now

OK, back to beer.

Nice weekend you all!

Short Cable Short! http://www.lavinya.net/phpBB2/images...miley_rock.gif
  • #35,352
  • Oct 13, 2007 6:14pm Oct 13, 2007 6:14pm
GBP/USD daily Pin Bar suggests we can risk about 100 pips up... and that is top of the triangle...


Quoting cesarnc
This could take weeks to unfold, unless we have hawkish Minutes + strong CPI next week - to fuel another hike sentiment.

Otherwise, triangle goes on....

Good data + 0500 and we can risk a long here, can't we?
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  • #35,353
  • Oct 13, 2007 6:16pm Oct 13, 2007 6:16pm
Quoting bullrock
predict, predict, predict, predict.... freakin' oracles
lol, I guess I'll just add to the list right now, mainly because of boredom before I go out tonight. Right now, the weekly and daily charts seem to be, for the most part, in congruence with each other. Both are in an upwards channel at the moment and both have just made their retracement. The weekly retraced to the 38.2 level from the last move upwards (1.9870 to 2.0493), while the daily chart has made it's retracement all the way to the 61.8 level from it's last move upwards (2.0081 up to 2.0493). These two things in congruence price action and each other are indicating to me that we will see the price move higher. My reasoning for this is that the weekly retracement level coupled with the daily retracement level are acting as a good support at the moment. This solid support and the price action that presented itself on the daily chart is telling me that price could move higher for the time being. Looks like a good time to buy it, although I'm not sure as to how the news this week will affect it. I was reading that inflation and the focus on G7 this week could be good for the dollar. Till then, Ill stick with my technicals. What do you think of this outlook? Does anyone disagree? and if you do disagree, why so? Thanks for your time.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #35,354
  • Oct 13, 2007 7:05pm Oct 13, 2007 7:05pm
Quoting fingotrader
Hi, I join the tread started by Day Trader and ask you guys the same question about GBPUSD the coming week, any views on where we are going?

Thanks

FT
I think it will range then break to the upside.. but I don't trade what I think, only what I see.
  • #35,355
  • Oct 13, 2007 8:34pm Oct 13, 2007 8:34pm
I can understand why someone who is not in the eastern time zone (EST) of the USA might prefer to show their daily bars synched up to their own time zones, but since the forex market is 24 hours I believe the correct way is to use the 5pm est as close of each trading day since that matches up with the far east open for a 24 hour cycle.

The reason why I mention this is because every so often there is a chart posted which shows a particular bar pattern, such as earlier today - pin bar, which when looking at my chart it is more like a hammer. The close was almost at the high of the day so I can't see how it could be a pinbar.

Although I agree the most important trading period for Cable (for example) is when London is trading, a correct 24 hour period for daily bars must be look at.
  • #35,356
  • Oct 13, 2007 10:03pm Oct 13, 2007 10:03pm
i disagree. see my daily/weekly charts for the reasons.

Quoting mike w
lol, I guess I'll just add to the list right now, mainly because of boredom before I go out tonight. Right now, the weekly and daily charts seem to be, for the most part, in congruence with each other. Both are in an upwards channel at the moment and both have just made their retracement. The weekly retraced to the 38.2 level from the last move upwards (1.9870 to 2.0493), while the daily chart has made it's retracement all the way to the 61.8 level from it's last move upwards (2.0081 up to 2.0493). These two things in congruence price action and each other are indicating to me that we will see the price move higher. My reasoning for this is that the weekly retracement level coupled with the daily retracement level are acting as a good support at the moment. This solid support and the price action that presented itself on the daily chart is telling me that price could move higher for the time being. Looks like a good time to buy it, although I'm not sure as to how the news this week will affect it. I was reading that inflation and the focus on G7 this week could be good for the dollar. Till then, Ill stick with my technicals. What do you think of this outlook? Does anyone disagree? and if you do disagree, why so? Thanks for your time.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #35,357
  • Oct 13, 2007 11:47pm Oct 13, 2007 11:47pm
Quoting Scrat
i disagree. see my daily/weekly charts for the reasons.

Not that I am picking sides, but I think you need to look again at your charts. I see higher highs and higher lows. No downtrend in sight. Doesn't mean it isn't right around the bend but if it ain't going down - why look for it.

Now if we trade below and more importantly close below fridays low, then the trend maybe changing.
  • #35,358
  • Edited 12:10pm Oct 14, 2007 7:16am | Edited 12:10pm
i just wanted to show my point of view. this is what i see on my charts and that's my strategy: elliott waves, fibo retracements and reversal patterns. now i think i see a short coming, but we all know price can go anywhere; that's why i have a SL and a pending long at the level where i don't believe in short anymore.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #35,359
  • Oct 14, 2007 7:20am Oct 14, 2007 7:20am
Quoting Tiki Trader
GBP/USD daily Pin Bar suggests we can risk about 100 pips up... and that is top of the triangle...
Yes we can... This damn currency is being traded mostly against EUR, in my opinion.

Check how beautifully this pair is trading (chart).

And there is room for more retracement in EG in case Euro loses its breath as I'm expecting. As people are not very confortable with buying dollar they can switch to buying cable against euro. LOL... Sad but true. EG is a TREDING PAIR!!! LLLLOOLLLLL...

Look at the nice pin-bar in the daily...

I'll only touch cable this week in case a) dollar shorts cover AND b) dovish Minutes and will add if c) weak CPI.
Attached Image
  • #35,360
  • Oct 14, 2007 2:53pm Oct 14, 2007 2:53pm
Not bad, ces
But don't u think this EG retreacement is very modest one?
Rsi prove Eur is still in bullish mood against G

Quoting cesarnc
Yes we can... This damn currency is being traded mostly against EUR, in my opinion.

Check how beautifully this pair is trading (chart).

And there is room for more retracement in EG in case Euro loses its breath as I'm expecting. As people are not very confortable with buying dollar they can switch to buying cable against euro. LOL... Sad but true. EG is a TREDING PAIR!!! LLLLOOLLLLL...

Look at the nice pin-bar in the daily...

I'll only touch cable this week in case a) dollar shorts cover AND b) dovish Minutes and will add if c) weak CPI.
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