Aussie Pairs

looks like they (AU, AJ) want to go back up, but for now is in s/r range

AU will not go back up in this week. It will go back up in late Oct early November however.

105.20 is capping the market in a/j

[DJ] Australian employment data underscores "stretched nature of the economy" in goods, labor market, RBC Capital Markets chief economist Su-Lin Ong says; adds numbers are consistent with RBA tightening bias, increase odds of additional 25bp hike in 1Q 2008. 3Q CPI due Oct. 24 "could well prove the decider"; print of 0.9% or higher could see RBA hike earlier. Expects any rally in Australian bonds on weaker-than-expected headline jobs growth to fade. 3-yr futures +1.5 bps at 93.435, 10-yr +1 bps at 93.765.(

Correction is over, back in again.

Aud data was mixed, but still positive, 9030ish area could prove to be PT zone. Let's see

i have a TL around 9060 so possible retracement from there. we wait and see.

anyone see 0.9270 a near target??

with this pair anything is possible, i just expect it to hit my TL and retrace a little to gather some strength to continue higher.

How did you come up with 9270? would be interested to compair the method behind your thoughts.

Comments out of Weber of ECB causing a spook across the markets. A/J off some 150 pips in the past hour. I hope early August volatility is back.

Don't forget the lockstep DJIA correlation

I read it on some sites , so I asked !

[DJ]AUD/USD has potential to rally to 0.95 without need of further gains in commodity prices or weaker US dollar, Morgan Stanley strategist Ron Leven says; but adds parity remains out of reach for now. Pair could rally 5-7% before hitting edge of "standard-error range" in relationship between AUD and metals prices relative to manufacturing prices; "gains beyond this are possible but would require either an extension of the metals price rally or a broad-based USD decline."

[DJ] AUD/USD parity unlikely at this stage, with a slip to "fair value" of 0.8400/0.8500 "far more likely", says Deutsche Bank strategist John Horner. Notes would take "substantial" further USD decline to lift AUD higher, but says a combined 10% dip in AUD, USD, prompting parity "certainly within the realms of the possible". But adds much of USD decline in current episode "already seen"

See attached chart

Graham Dyer Newsletter 7 Oct 2007
AUSSIE DOLLAR IS NEAR ITS PEAK

Like the share market, real estate and gold, there seems to be no limit to how high the “Little Battler” can climb. But there is.

The bottom in early 2001 was a very important low for the Australian dollar, and we can see a clear five waves up over the last six and a half years. Whether the fourth wave was a two-year triangle from early 2004 or whether the alternate count is correct, the outcome is the same. The Aussie may have a little bit left, but it is due to go into a multi-year decline that should take it back to the region of US70 cents (the previous fourth wave extremity).

Why is the Aussie dollar so strong?

The specious arguments pontificated by economists might gain currency (pun intended) with the media and the public, but they are of no more value than are their “reasons” for rises and falls in the price of shares, gold, real estate, etc. Currency exchange rates, like every other asset price, are a function of crowd psychology, not economic fundamentals. Don’t believe me? Let’s take a little test.

Interest rates?

One “reason” advanced is interest rates. The Aussie dollar is strong, we are told, because Australian interest rates are higher than America’s. Are they? Well, take a look where the Aussie dollar bottomed against the US dollar on 2 April, 2001. The US Fed funds rate on that date stood at 5% and was heading south at a rate of knots, as Alan Greenspan was in the middle of slashing interest rates in panic from 6 ½% to 1%. What was the cash rate in Australia at the same time? 5 ½% and also heading south. Where’s the differential?

Metal prices?

The next furphy foisted upon us is the “resources boom” based on the “China story.” Okay, when copper hit a record $US4 a pound in May 2006, where was the Aussie dollar? A bit over 75 cents. Eight months later, when copper had plummeted to $2.40 a pound (a drop of 40%), where was the AUD? About the same!

Oh, and what about interest rates in January-February 2007? In Australia they were 6 ¼%. In the US they were 5 ¼%. Yet the Aussie had almost doubled in six years. Are you starting to believe me?

The way I see it; from the blue 1 to the blue 3, the AUD gained around .3. It then consolidated for a while and is continueing to rise. It might go another .3

surfer1,

I'll see your commentary, and raise you one:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...175315967.html


BTW These are all just opinions, the article you posted and this one and a case can be made for either one. I don't really worry about any of it, I just trade as I see it. Right now we're approaching .9050 might see some pullback there to the .8900 region

Aussie Election called for Nov 24... A change of Govt indicated by the polls at the moment,

The current government has won the last four (?) elections but is now trailing polls at around 12%, historically almost impossible for them to win. The opposition is more socially / union oriented which might have an impact on the AUD.

107.71 is the all time high, we're only around 100 pips from the all time high. Let' see what happens