Aussie Pairs

4hr pin on the 100 ema above trendline was my signal. Now lets see if we can bust through these fib levels

Australia Retail Sales Jump, Building Slumps
By: Reuters | 30 Jun 2009 | 11:36 PM ET

Australian retail sales jumped by 1.0 percent in May, twice the market forecast, as government give-aways and historically low borrowing costs fuelled spending at department stores and cafes.
However, other data on Wednesday showed a shock 12.5 percent drop in approvals to build new homes in May, as the volatile multi-unit sector slumped 43.6 percent to the lowest since 1987.
The mixed news only added to expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would leave rates unchanged at 3.0 percent at its July policy meeting next week.

Full article
http://www.cnbc.com//id/31673149

Australia Trade Gap Widens as Commodity Prices Fall By: Reuters | 01 Jul 2009 | 11:17 PM ET Australia's trade deficit doubled in May as a steep fall in the value of commodity exports overshadowed soft imports, likely just a taster of what's to come as swinging price cuts for coal and iron ore feed through. The local dollar dipped after the government reported the deficit on goods and services widened 97 percent to A$556 million (US$448 million) in May, above forecasts of a A$125 million shortfall. Exports fell 5.2 percent, with coal receipts down 15 percent due to cuts of 40 percent or more to contract prices for the country's single biggest export earner. Prices for iron ore, Australia's second largest export, are in the process of being slashed right now as a slump in global trade eats into the demand for steel. http://www.cnbc.com/id/31699763

that trade didnt last long. got out with a small 100 pip profit. Damn.

Four Rio Tinto staff detained in China By Ed Crooks in London and Patti Waldmeir in Shanghai Published: July 7 2009 17:04 | Last updated: July 8 2009 07:01 Four employees of Rio Tinto, the Anglo-Australian mining group, have been detained in China without explanation, raising tensions as the company is locked in tough negotiations over iron ore prices. It is highly unusual for staff of a large foreign company to be detained in China. The four workers, reported to be members of Rio’s iron ore sales team, were held for questioning on Sunday. The company said in a statement that it was “concerned about the employees’ wellbeing and is doing everything possible to help them and support their families”. What will be the impact to commodites because of this behavior by china

Aussie making a huge jump these last few days.

RBA sells record volumes of Aussie dollar

By Elizabeth Fry in Sydney
Published: July 16 2009 17:55 | Last updated: July 16 2009 17:55

Australia’s central bank sold a record amount of Australian dollars in the spot foreign exchange market in June, suggesting a move by the government to increase its reserves at a time when the currency is near nine-month highs.
The Reserve Bank of Australia sold a net A$1.94bn in the spot foreign exchange market in June, according to figures issued on Thursday – the largest single amount seen in any month.
According to Westpac, over the past three months, the RBA has sold A$3.8bn – well in excess of federal government requirements and generating healthy profits for the central bank.
Over that period the federal government has used A$1.8bn while the RBA has sold A$3.8bn – a difference of A$2bn. Net reserves now stand at US$35.15bn – a new high, according to Westpac.
“Central banks the world over will have closely monitored the extent to which the authorities had to go to keep financial markets open during the financial crisis,” Westpac said in a note.
“Hundreds of billions worth of bonds were issued under government guarantee round the world. And those same authorities now have a contingent liability on their balance sheet which may indeed ‘require’ a higher level of reserves.”
The June data marked seven consecutive months of sales of Australian dollars by the central bank as it moved from rebuilding spent reserves through the financial crisis to net adding to reserves. The data suggest the RBA continued to increase its sales volumes in the currency when it moved above US$0.80.
Aside from a net A$1.94bn in sales, the bank also bought a net A$1.06bn from the government in June, highlighting the rise in how much foreign exchange the government needed that month.
The RBA’s spot foreign exchange market transactions in May amounted to net sales of A$1.43bn. The central bank also bought a net A$401m from the government that month.
These recent currency sales have almost offset the A$3.15bn bought in October when the Australian dollar was in freefall.
The Australian dollar fell to US$0.7991 on Thursday.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bbdf32a4-7...44feabdc0.html

Australia Jobs Jump, Stoke Talk of Rate Rise
Published: Wednesday, 5 Aug 2009 | 11:23 PM ET

By: Reuters



Australian employment blew away expectations by rising 32,200 in July to keep the jobless rate steady at 5.8 percent, a startling sign of strength that added greatly to the risk of an early hike in interest rates.
The Australian dollar [AUD= 0.8444 http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...tchlist_up.gif 0.004 (+0.48%) http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...ltime_icon.gif] firmed while bill futures slid as investors added to bets the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might soon begin to lift its cash rate from a record low of 3.0 percent.
"Magnificent," declared Adam Carr, chief economist at broker ICAP. "I don't think there can be any debate about which direction the cash rate is going. I still think the first hike will come in December, but there are risks of a move earlier."
Interbank futures implied one-month rates of 3.37 percent by December, with a real chance of an increase of 25 basis points in November.
Such a move would easily make the RBA the first central bank of any developed nation to tighten policy since tentative signs of a global recovery began, reflecting the effectiveness of
stimulus here and Australia's good fortune in being a major resource supplier to China's growing economy.







http://www.cnbc.com//id/32308378

4hr channel thats inside a.....

daily channel

Didn't want to keep discussing the AUDJPY in the AUDUSD thread, where i posted my thoughts a few days ago, so thought i should post in here.

I'm short AUDJPY @ 80.13 and if weakness continues in equities, we can see considerable downside for AUD.

The 4hr shows possible resistance around the 78.85 area where the 100sma meets the bottom of the Kumo, but if we can break this then it is clear sailing from then on imo.

The Daily shows that the next level of resistance will come somewhere below the 77.00 area where the 50sma and Kijun-sen will be.

As i posted in the other thread, i think the AUD is about to roll over

The 4hr shows the lower Kumo and 100sma broken with little resistance.

Stop now moved above Kumo and 100sma to lock in minimum 110 pips profit

Longs back in play For now anyways.

Range trading back in play for now anyways

Interest rates up, commodities down.

Interest rates down, commodities up.

G`s up ho`s down while you MFers bounce to this.

testing to post in this thread ... aud/jpy 1h.

aud/usd 1h & 4h.

aud/chf 4h.