looks like they (AU, AJ) want to go back up, but for now is in s/r range
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Trading correlation pairs by using the other pairs 751 replies
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DislikedI already closed my longs and will re-enter when this is finished. hopefully sometime this week.Ignored
DislikedComments out of Weber of ECB causing a spook across the markets. A/J off some 150 pips in the past hour. I hope early August volatility is back.Ignored
Dislikedwith this pair anything is possible, i just expect it to hit my TL and retrace a little to gather some strength to continue higher.
How did you come up with 9270? would be interested to compair the method behind your thoughts.Ignored
See attached chart
Graham Dyer Newsletter 7 Oct 2007
AUSSIE DOLLAR IS NEAR ITS PEAK
Like the share market, real estate and gold, there seems to be no limit to how high the “Little Battler” can climb. But there is.
The bottom in early 2001 was a very important low for the Australian dollar, and we can see a clear five waves up over the last six and a half years. Whether the fourth wave was a two-year triangle from early 2004 or whether the alternate count is correct, the outcome is the same. The Aussie may have a little bit left, but it is due to go into a multi-year decline that should take it back to the region of US70 cents (the previous fourth wave extremity).
Why is the Aussie dollar so strong?
The specious arguments pontificated by economists might gain currency (pun intended) with the media and the public, but they are of no more value than are their “reasons” for rises and falls in the price of shares, gold, real estate, etc. Currency exchange rates, like every other asset price, are a function of crowd psychology, not economic fundamentals. Don’t believe me? Let’s take a little test.
Interest rates?
One “reason” advanced is interest rates. The Aussie dollar is strong, we are told, because Australian interest rates are higher than America’s. Are they? Well, take a look where the Aussie dollar bottomed against the US dollar on 2 April, 2001. The US Fed funds rate on that date stood at 5% and was heading south at a rate of knots, as Alan Greenspan was in the middle of slashing interest rates in panic from 6 ½% to 1%. What was the cash rate in Australia at the same time? 5 ½% and also heading south. Where’s the differential?
Metal prices?
The next furphy foisted upon us is the “resources boom” based on the “China story.” Okay, when copper hit a record $US4 a pound in May 2006, where was the Aussie dollar? A bit over 75 cents. Eight months later, when copper had plummeted to $2.40 a pound (a drop of 40%), where was the AUD? About the same!
Oh, and what about interest rates in January-February 2007? In Australia they were 6 ¼%. In the US they were 5 ¼%. Yet the Aussie had almost doubled in six years. Are you starting to believe me?
DislikedAussie Election called for Nov 24... A change of Govt indicated by the polls at the moment,Ignored