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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #5,281
  • Oct 8, 2007 1:06pm Oct 8, 2007 1:06pm
I think we need to see what happens on the Asia session opening! All the pundits like it long here so sentiment may carry us over the threshold. The weakness in the DOW may be holding it back some.
  • #5,282
  • Oct 8, 2007 1:08pm Oct 8, 2007 1:08pm
Quoting cesarnc
I missed the breakout from the triangle on the daily and now I want a price to go in long.

I'm sidelined for AGES in UJ, waiting for retake of 117 level to build long positions and now, this SOB looks too high in the near term to go in....

Anyone planning UJ longs, larger timeframes/ targets?

I'd like to buy around 116.70-90 but I have no idea whether or not there is a potential for such pullback before a next push up...

Well, assuming that UJ is going to resume its trend after the break out of the triangle...
This triangle, BTW:
Attached Image
  • #5,283
  • Oct 8, 2007 1:16pm Oct 8, 2007 1:16pm
The triangle from 150 pips ago!!
  • #5,284
  • Oct 8, 2007 2:03pm Oct 8, 2007 2:03pm
cesarnc - where were you after the triangle break? There were a couple more possible entries.. The first was a retrace immediately after the triangle break back to the triangle ceiling (far left of chart). Then price hugged the 38.2 level for nearly 2 days if you wanted to risk NFP. Then a retrace/headfake 90 minutes after NFP to the 116.55 level.

At this point it's a tough call. There's a very good chance of price heading to 118 before a reversal. That level marks the 50 fib and other technical overhead.
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  • #5,285
  • Oct 8, 2007 2:10pm Oct 8, 2007 2:10pm
Quoting Trader KGB
cesarnc - where were you after the triangle break? There were a couple more possible entries.. The first was a retrace immediately after the triangle break back to the triangle ceiling (far left of chart). Then price hugged the 38.2 level for nearly 2 days if you wanted to risk NFP. Then a retrace/headfake 90 minutes after NFP to the 116.40 level.

At this point it's a tough call. There's a good chance of price heading to 118 before a reversal. That level marks the 50 fib and other technical overhead.
LOL... I completely forgot about UJ. As the 117.30 area was the nut to crack on the way down (100 EMA/SMA weekly), I decided to go in only after taking that level back. Some use the SMA and right now the EMA is at 117.04 (below current level) and the SMA is at 117.63 - above ....

So I don't know whether or not I go long declaring MA breached or not

I guess we will have a definition tomorrow with the FOMC, via stock market response.
  • #5,286
  • Oct 8, 2007 2:18pm Oct 8, 2007 2:18pm
I'm short from 117.52, targeting 115.50 area based on a butterfly pattern on 4H even though it is NOT an 'ideal' pattern.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #5,287
  • Oct 8, 2007 2:22pm Oct 8, 2007 2:22pm
Quoting karmostaji
I'm short from 117.52, targeting 115.50 area based on a butterfly pattern on 4H even though it is NOT an 'ideal' pattern.
Can you post a chart of this butterfly?
  • #5,288
  • Oct 8, 2007 2:24pm Oct 8, 2007 2:24pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Can you post a chart of this butterfly?
here you go, remember it is not an ideal one, so it might not work out as it should.

http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/7769/4hwv5.gif
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #5,289
  • Oct 8, 2007 2:24pm Oct 8, 2007 2:24pm
Days go by and other animals join the forex zoo

I don't know about butterfly pattern, but 115.50 is where the triangle's lower trendline lies right now. I'd love to go long at this level. Let's see how the stock market trades this week, though....
  • #5,290
  • Oct 8, 2007 4:41pm Oct 8, 2007 4:41pm
Quoting cesarnc
Days go by and other animals join the forex zoo

I don't know about butterfly pattern, but 115.50 is where the triangle's lower trendline lies right now. I'd love to go long at this level. Let's see how the stock market trades this week, though....
So a retrace before 123 eh?
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #5,291
  • Oct 8, 2007 8:33pm Oct 8, 2007 8:33pm
http://img113.imageshack.us/img113/7...0810072dt3.gif
  • #5,292
  • Oct 9, 2007 5:42pm Oct 9, 2007 5:42pm
Lately, not too much action with this pair ...
  • #5,293
  • Oct 9, 2007 6:27pm Oct 9, 2007 6:27pm
Quoting Schminner
Lately, not too much action with this pair ...
Yes Shminner ... in october good for usdchf , nice volatility and easy entrys
  • #5,294
  • Oct 10, 2007 5:31pm Oct 10, 2007 5:31pm
Quoting pepbullish
Yes Shminner ... in october good for usdchf , nice volatility and easy entrys
You are right, there's much more action with the USD/CHF pair right now ... USD/JPY pair seems to be on vacation right now ...
  • #5,295
  • Oct 14, 2007 7:03pm Oct 14, 2007 7:03pm
In at 117.5 for the ride up into the 120s. Lets see how it goes!
say something political...what I would eat if I wasn't going to die.
  • #5,296
  • Oct 20, 2007 6:39pm Oct 20, 2007 6:39pm
Any chance of this thing bouncing back up ???
  • #5,297
  • Oct 20, 2007 6:42pm Oct 20, 2007 6:42pm
Quoting Schminner
Any chance of this thing bouncing back up ???
It's very possible as we are about to be facing an upwards channel bottom. This usually tends to be a good price to make an entry to the upside with minimal risk. Check out my journal, MW's trading journal, for my thinking on it, then tell me what you think.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #5,298
  • Oct 20, 2007 9:56pm Oct 20, 2007 9:56pm
Base your assumptions on the weakness of the yen.

The confusion is when you trade USDJPY, whereas they're both weak right now, so it's going to flunctuate until a major move takes place.
  • #5,299
  • Oct 20, 2007 11:55pm Oct 20, 2007 11:55pm
Im looking for a bounce up before continuing down. This pair loves fibo numbers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #5,300
  • Oct 21, 2007 3:01pm Oct 21, 2007 3:01pm
Looks like it's heading before the bounce ...
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