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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #34,461
  • Oct 8, 2007 8:43am Oct 8, 2007 8:43am
[quote=ClockTrader;1632863]I find your posts very informative and educative, keep around mate, assume u r talking out of stats, no guess/beliefs, I've been believing below so far:

90% lose on monthly and annual basis (no. of such traders is exploding)[/quote] lol
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #34,462
  • Oct 8, 2007 8:44am Oct 8, 2007 8:44am
Quoting bullrock
I have been in the 54% then in the 36% then again in the 54% then now I am in the 5% and fighting to move into the 4% and eventually into the 1%
i been in all of them to, it's not how you fall its how you get up.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #34,463
  • Oct 8, 2007 8:46am Oct 8, 2007 8:46am
Quoting Moe
i been in all of them to, it's not how you fall its how you get up.
Exactly. It's not how you start, it's how you finish.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #34,464
  • Oct 8, 2007 8:51am Oct 8, 2007 8:51am
Quoting bullrock
I have been in the 54% then in the 36% then again in the 54% then now I am in the 5% and fighting to move into the 4% and eventually into the 1%

everybody has to go through 54% category, I don't think anyone can actually skip this class unless someone is from deep inside or some exception like that.
Hello World!
  • #34,465
  • Oct 8, 2007 8:54am Oct 8, 2007 8:54am
The question is how do you stay consistently in the 1% for long years and eventually for the life of your trading activity... My guess is for that you need a system that outrules the psychological aspectets (and my wifes effect) from trading...
That is one has a stable, reliable and consistent trading system that has the minimal number of discretionary rules.
.
  • #34,466
  • Oct 8, 2007 8:54am Oct 8, 2007 8:54am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
No one is any percentage with this movement or lack of.

WAKE UP FOREX!!!!!!
GET OUT OF BED AND MOVE!!!!!!


that seemed to work
Just Trade It
  • #34,467
  • Oct 8, 2007 8:59am Oct 8, 2007 8:59am
Quoting Moe
1% of Forex traders are actually making the type of money most dream of...

4% make a good living trading, decent salary replacement, nothing too fancy...

5% are breaking even month after month, with a couple of good months following a couple of bad months,

36% have quit Forex and,

54% are losing their trading accounts (their hard earned money)
I guess this is about individuals only, right?

I've come to the conclusion that our worst enemy is the way we learn about forex in the beginning.

Many materials for beginners lead you to those "grab 10 - 20 pips and run", while you can't even think about less than 50 pips SL in cable. So you will always be trading with poor r:r.

I got rid of the mounting losses by quitting the small trades with bad SL placement. Much better trade for 100-200 pips with a 100-200 SL, placed behind key larger term prices than trade the actual 1hr with SL behind its last top/bottom.

In the end, if you are stopped out, it is much likely the price is going further against your previous position, so you can stop and reverse most of the time.

For instance, going short cable now, demands Sl at 0460 minimum, as the breach of 0450 is likely to call 0500 and beyond. And going long now demands SL below 0300 as it will call 0200 and below if breached.

What kills you is going short now SL 0400 or long SL 0350, specially during those highly volatile days.

My 2 pips
  • #34,468
  • Oct 8, 2007 9:03am Oct 8, 2007 9:03am
Quoting bullrock
The question is how do you stay consistently in the 1% for long years and eventually for the life of your trading activity... My guess is for that you need a system that outrules the psychological aspectets (and my wifes effect) from trading...
That is one has a stable, reliable and consistent trading system that has the minimal number of discretionary rules.
1. A simple method they could have confidence in.

2. Money management.

3. Applying the method with discipline.

So, let’s look at what you need to learn.

1. Method

You need a method you have confidence in and it needs to be simple.

There is no correlation between how complicated a method is and how much money it makes.

In fact, the reverse is true.

A complicated method has more components to break and is less robust in the face of brutal market conditions.

Look up “technical analysis” on the net and learn specifically how and why it works and also the theory of “trading breakouts”

You should be using a long term trend following methodology looking for the big trends that produce the big profits and breakout trading is ideal for this.

If you want to win at online forex trading, you need to know about breakouts.

Base your methodology on it – It’s simple and it works.

Now you need to time entries.

Look at some indicators that are based on momentum and look up “stochastics” this is simply the best momentum indicator you can use.

2. Money Management

If you start with a “breakout method” and base your trading method on it, then stop placement is obvious.

If you only trade significant breaks your odds of success will be high.

3. Discipline

Is perhaps the hardest part of trading online forex.

You need to apply your method with rigid discipline otherwise you have no method at all.

Discipline is all about experience and even seasoned traders find it hard to keep executing a method when a string of losses occur.

However, you are part of the way there to having discipline, if you have devised your own method.

You know its logic and should be able to stay with it as you will have confidence in it to work.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #34,469
  • Oct 8, 2007 9:12am Oct 8, 2007 9:12am
Quoting Moe
1. A simple method they could have confidence in.

2. Money management.

3. Applying the method with discipline.

So, let’s look at what you need to learn.

1. Method

You need a method you have confidence in and it needs to be simple.

There is no correlation between how complicated a method is and how much money it makes.

In fact, the reverse is true.

A complicated method has more components to break and is less robust in the face of brutal market conditions.

Look up “technical analysis” on the net and learn specifically how and why it works and also the theory of “trading breakouts”

You should be using a long term trend following methodology looking for the big trends that produce the big profits and breakout trading is ideal for this.

If you want to win at online forex trading, you need to know about breakouts.

Base your methodology on it – It’s simple and it works.

Now you need to time entries.

Look at some indicators that are based on momentum and look up “stochastics” this is simply the best momentum indicator you can use.

2. Money Management

If you start with a “breakout method” and base your trading method on it, then stop placement is obvious.

If you only trade significant breaks your odds of success will be high.

3. Discipline

Is perhaps the hardest part of trading online forex.

You need to apply your method with rigid discipline otherwise you have no method at all.

Discipline is all about experience and even seasoned traders find it hard to keep executing a method when a string of losses occur.

However, you are part of the way there to having discipline, if you have devised your own method.

You know its logic and should be able to stay with it as you will have confidence in it to work.
Thanks for that MOE.

I am a big fan of BOs. And in fact all my calculations shows that they could largely outperform any other system. All my research is built around BO systems... Now the money management is a tricky beast. I am weeeeeell beyond the concept of position sizing problem... With some money management principles I could make a looser system into a winner.
.
  • #34,470
  • Oct 8, 2007 9:16am Oct 8, 2007 9:16am
US Stock market is open today.... Didn't know it would work today...
  • #34,471
  • Oct 8, 2007 9:25am Oct 8, 2007 9:25am
Quoting cesarnc
US Stock market is open today.... Didn't know it would work today...
Thats because of the Chinese investors...
.
  • #34,472
  • Oct 8, 2007 9:36am Oct 8, 2007 9:36am
Quoting bullrock
Thats because of the Chinese investors...
Does anyone know how much % of the total market capital(in US) is held by non-americans ?

I won't be surprised if someone said more than 65% of the market capital belongs to foreigners

If thats true and actually only then I can understand why US $ is falling like rock against almost every currency on earth and yet the stock markets there look in not a bad condition comparatively.
Hello World!
  • #34,473
  • Oct 8, 2007 9:39am Oct 8, 2007 9:39am
Quoting ClockTrader
Does anyone know how much % of the total market capital(in US) is held by non-americans ?

I won't be surprised if someone said more than 65% of the market capital belongs to foreigners

If thats true and actually only then I can understand why US $ is falling like rock against almost every currency on earth and yet the stock markets there look in not a bad condition comparatively.
it's a very high percentange, witch can have a major impact on other economy's
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #34,474
  • Oct 8, 2007 9:43am Oct 8, 2007 9:43am
Quoting ClockTrader
Does anyone know how much % of the total market capital(in US) is held by non-americans ?

I won't be surprised if someone said more than 65% of the market capital belongs to foreigners

If thats true and actually only then I can understand why US $ is falling like rock against almost every currency on earth and yet the stock markets there look in not a bad condition comparatively.
I think that the strengths of the US stock market is explained by the weakness of the dollar.. IMHO (I havent made any calculations) I would be surprised the relative stoock price related to the inflation and the dollar index. And calculate like that the relative value of increase of the US stocks....
.
  • #34,475
  • Oct 8, 2007 9:45am Oct 8, 2007 9:45am
It is nowhere near 65% of total US market cap.
  • #34,476
  • Oct 8, 2007 9:47am Oct 8, 2007 9:47am
Quoting bullrock
I think that the strengths of the US stock market is explained by the weakness of the dollar.. IMHO (I havent made any calculations) I would be surprised the relative stoock price related to the inflation and the dollar index. And calculate like that the relative value of increase of the US stocks....

So many american corporations have their place in the global market. McDonalds and wall marts are everywhere on the globe. This is what is pushing wall st. not the actual economy numbers.
Just Trade It
  • #34,477
  • Oct 8, 2007 9:48am Oct 8, 2007 9:48am
Quoting Moe
it's a very high percentange, witch can have a major impact on other economy's
Only one country Saudi Arabia holds about 8% of the total market capital there, I'm sure about this

thats one country = 8%

wonder what other countries hold ?
Hello World!
  • #34,478
  • Oct 8, 2007 9:49am Oct 8, 2007 9:49am
Im loving this price drop.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #34,479
  • Oct 8, 2007 9:51am Oct 8, 2007 9:51am
All in all it is a wierd Monday. All pairs are filling the NFP's whipsaw today. Which leaves the question: what's for tomorrow?

I know! I know!

bullrock is bullish whatever the direction
clocktrader will "trade whatever the direction"
WTB will shout "stay out!"
Warper will bug SunTrader, whatever the direction the latter picks
Soros-Jr will call 2.1 if cable goes bearish or 1.96 if it goes bullish
cesarnc will crack jokes whatever the direction

I love this thread
  • #34,480
  • Oct 8, 2007 9:54am Oct 8, 2007 9:54am
Quoting cesarnc
Warper will bug SunTrader, whatever the direction the latter picks
Correction: the warped one will lie about whatever direction or anything else I say.

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