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Elliott Wave Counting with EG

  • #761
  • Oct 7, 2007 1:15pm Oct 7, 2007 1:15pm
Attached to this post are Charts which I present to show an ideal classic potential scenario for the GBPJPY Pair probably forecastiong what to expect till next year.

First shows A Potential Harmonic Pattern applied to the EW and Fib based chart.

I am making probably too many assumptions here. But as I said before.... this is justa potential scenario for this pair.

various validating factors need to be monitored to determine if this is still a potential turnout for this pair as time goes by.

2nd chart would show labels for EW and also for the Potential Harmonic Pattern which I think would fall in the classification of a Bearish Butterfly.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bearish butterfly_001.gif Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: bearish butterfly_002 mix ew n hp.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #762
  • Edited 6:07pm Oct 7, 2007 1:44pm | Edited 6:07pm
After you analyze the last 2 charts above, you will probably or definitely notice that my wave C yellow is too short for your taste...

First let me answer your question "WHY?"

..... A thought crossed my mind to see a possible relationship between EW and Harmonic Patterns.

Although wave 4 has not fully evolved yet, based on the projections I made.... Big wave B would fall on the 78.6% retracement of Wave A.

Based on that, I checked the Guide line for harmonic Patterns that would possibly allow a "B" which makes a 78.6% retracement of the XA Leg.

And I came up with 2.

First is the Bearish Butterfly
Second is the Bullish AB=CD

I will expound on this later. need to get some sleep out here.

EG

PS. Time Element on the chart has no valid precision yet. I was just toying on the possibilities. I am still working on how I can include Time into my analysis
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2 medium term potential forecasts.gif Size: 42 KB
  • #763
  • Oct 7, 2007 6:57pm Oct 7, 2007 6:57pm
In my earlier posts before Post # 750, I thought there was just 1 Harmonic/Gartley Pattern that would fit teh Potential structure of the EW Count I thought I was seeing and will see in GBPJPY.

While doing this step by step presentation, I realized that there was another Pattern that would fit in.

That is why now we have

Bearish Butterfly in combination with the Running Flat corrective wave for the Wave 4

And a 2nd pattern which is the Bullish AB=CD

The Bearish Butterfly is projected to unfold when
1st Price based on EWT should reach FE 261.8 ( 245.48 Red Fib Extention Tool ) of wave 012 inside wave wave c of the Big wave B Up
2nd this also coincides with the 78.6% retracement of the Big Wave A (244.27). and
3rd This will give us a 78.6% retracement (244.27) of the XA leg 251.07 - 219.31 ) for Point B in the Harmonic Pattern

To "make it fit" into this pattern and still find it valid, price then needs to retrace down only by 38.2% toward 234.74 for its Big Wave C down. This is still valid as a complete corrective wave and classified as a Running flat corrective wave even if it does not go down lower than 219.31 which is the end of Big Wave A. This can happen when the main Trend which is Bullish is too strong and thus leads price to move up again.

If this turns out to be the case, Wave 5 Of the Wave C in the monthly Chart will thus begin and unfold to possibly complete the CD leg of this potential Bearish Butterfly and also complete the wave 5 inside the Wave C in the monthly chart. This will be valid only if price projection reaches 1.27 retracement up of the XA leg for the end of Point D. which could take weeks or months.

Note that in the chart ( please excuse it for looking a bit messy. I had to put in most of the tools to have less charts and see most if not all tools and projections in just 1 chart for easy viewing )Bearish Butterfly point D projection ( 127% retrace of XA leg falls on 259.85) and a valid AB=CD also falls in that area at 259.70. In addition, wave C end in the monthly chart is projected to be in the same vicinity if C=A in the monthly @ 259.93

This Bearish Butterfly Pattern is seen as the 2 Blue triangles on my Chart

EG

PS. Note that if Price goes beyond the limits that have been set using the Bearish Butterfly Pattern, Then these Projections and Forecast becomes invalid.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #764
  • Oct 7, 2007 7:19pm Oct 7, 2007 7:19pm
As an alternative structure to what I have presented above, it is also possible "to fit or expect to fit Price to another Harmonic Pattern " as it unfolds its EW Count too.

And that is the Bullish AB=CD

where we see price
1. still reach 78.6% (244.27) retracement for the Big Wave B
2. internal structure of Big Wave B project its end at FE 100.0 at 245.48 C=A
3. then see a possible fall to 212.51 which is FE 100.0 of the C=A of a Zigzag corrective wave 4. ( which incidentally is a requirement for the Bullish AB=CD)
4. Note that it also coincides with the 127% percent ( Magenta Fib Retracement ) Projection for the retracement of the AB leg of the Bullish AB=CD Pattern and this lands @ 212.57 which is just 6 pips off the mark.

See the 1st blue triangle and match it with the Pale Green Triangle

EG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #765
  • Oct 7, 2007 7:54pm Oct 7, 2007 7:54pm
Quoting el grande
Now that we are in wave c which is divided into 5 waves as an impulse wave,

This is where I have to options of labelling me EW Counts on this Pair.

First I use the FIB extention tool to project wave 3 and wave 5 when I can see that a POSSIBLE count for wave 1 and wave 2 is present.

Option 1 ______
First sign is where I positioned the Magenta FIB Extention tool.

This means that wave one started at 229.20 which is also the end of the triangle sub wave b and the wave 1 is at 234.22 and wave 2 is at 229.72

Option 2 ______
Second potential count iswave 1 still at 234.22 while wave 2 is at 233.67

I will select Option 1 because I came across a literature and I can not remember where.... but it states that sub wave 1 of wave 3 must go beyond end of higher degree wave 1. This is only satisfied by Option 1 in Magenta.

As a guideline then I will set my target for sub wave 3 at the FE 161.8 of this drawn FIB Extention tool Magenta. And this is at 239.19.

Referring to the chart again, you will see that we are very near this price level on the GBPJPY.

Let us dissect the wave 3 further on this 4 hour chart.

We know that wave 3 ( 33 here ) must never be the shortest. Seeing what seems a 5 wave structure already finished, let us check if the previous rule has been violated.

Again we use the fib extention tool on each impusle wave.

we see wave 33 is a little less than 100% of wave 31 ( Pale Green FIB Extention Tool. This means that wave 33 is shorter than wave 31. therefore, wave 35 must be shorter than wave 33 to adhere to the rule.

Let us measure or compare the current length of wave 35 to wave 33 using the BLUE FIB Extention tool. Here we see that wave 35 is just about 80% of wave 33.

With this , it means that wave 33 is not the shortest comparing to wave 31 and possible wave 35.

wave 31, 32 and 33 seem to have already exhibited the complete characteristics of their wave nature and completetd the sub wave counts.

This leaves us to confirm the remaining wave 35

PS. the chart below supercedes the previous EW Count I made and posted as a revision prior to this specially where I label wave 2 in the sub wave c.
Diagonal Triangle / Wedge Theory for what I thought was the 5th wave inside wave 3 could now be invalid because price still went up higher than 238.84 to 239.20.

Or is this the throwover to the upside? But checking the price structure, it may still be valid with the revised count on the attached chart. Giving a clearer 5 wave structure for the sub wave C inside that zigzag wave 5 inside the leading diagonal triangle.


EG

My mind
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #766
  • Oct 7, 2007 8:18pm Oct 7, 2007 8:18pm
1. If Current Price Rise goes higher than 244.27, then the Potential Bearish Butterfly Pattern and the Bullish AB=CD Pattern is OFF the Table and mute.

2. If 244.27 holds, then the next to watch is the retracement. If it retraces by 38.2% to 234.74 and holds it there and reverses, then The watch for the Completion of the Possible Bearish Butterfly is ON toward the 127% Projection of the XA leg to 259.85 and that means we just finished a running flat corrective wave 4 at 234.74.

3. if the retracement down from 244.27 exceeds 38.2% and goes lower than 234.74, then the Bearish Butterfly Pattern Potential is off the table and we will watch for the development of the Bullish AB=CD. In terms of EWT, we would be looking at a zigzag wave which has a C=A and that means a projection down to 212.51 where it nearly matches up with a 127% projection for the CD leg against the XA leg of the Bullish AB=CD Pattern.

This could take weeks or months . So it is also advisable to look into the lower timeframe EW Counts to trade toward trading this longer term based forecasts.

Happy Trading to ALL of You and may you all harvest a lot of pips.

EG
  • #767
  • Oct 7, 2007 9:29pm Oct 7, 2007 9:29pm
Attached chart modified on the Fib Retracement Levels due to the new High.
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  • #768
  • Oct 7, 2007 9:29pm Oct 7, 2007 9:29pm
Here is a look at the Usd/Yen going into next week....
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Price action appears to be moving towards the " End of a Wave 3 "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

( Double Click on chart to Enlarge )
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: YEN-10-05-07-01.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #769
  • Oct 7, 2007 10:16pm Oct 7, 2007 10:16pm
Quoting marketwavez
Here is a look at the Usd/Yen going into next week....
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Price action appears to be moving towards the " End of a Wave 3 "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

( Double Click on chart to Enlarge )
It looks like GBPJPY is following a similar Pattern to How USDJPY is unfolding.

EG
  • #770
  • Oct 7, 2007 10:25pm Oct 7, 2007 10:25pm
A triple Top may be forming on the 4h chart of GBPJPY.

However, the first 2 candles indicate bullishness.

1st candle has a long bullidh body
2nd candle has a long lower shadow with a very narrow bearish Body and barely any upper wick and this indicates Bullishness in the market

so that is at least 2 out of 3 for the triple topwhose thrid candle is not yet finished.

on the 1hour chart, this is already a 4 point top and now shows an ascending triangle with an initially flat top level. and this indicates bullishness also.
So if I see price closing above 239.20, this means that the Bulls are in control of the market.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: triple top on 4h.gif Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4x on 1hour.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #771
  • Oct 8, 2007 11:36pm Oct 8, 2007 11:36pm
I am a slow typist and prparing the charts take quite a lot of time for me. So I will post the charts first and explain later. maybe the others can cderive some ideas from these charts.

EG

Step 1 on the Daily

I have revised my Wave B count to have a running flat joined by an x wave to a triangle. Some thing was bothering about the earlier triangle I drew plus the rule of alrenation betweeen an A and a B wave.

Hopefully , this count will be a better one I think.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: step 1_daily.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #772
  • Oct 8, 2007 11:42pm Oct 8, 2007 11:42pm
On the 4 hour chart

Target is 237.40 before a retracement up for the sub wave 2 up for a main move down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #773
  • Oct 8, 2007 11:46pm Oct 8, 2007 11:46pm
on the 1 hour chart
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  • #774
  • Oct 8, 2007 11:50pm Oct 8, 2007 11:50pm
on the m30 chart
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  • #775
  • Oct 8, 2007 11:54pm Oct 8, 2007 11:54pm
my 15m chart
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  • #776
  • Oct 9, 2007 12:16am Oct 9, 2007 12:16am
watching if it will unfold as per chart

But first needs to go LOWER than 237.81 to dispell possibility of being a wave 4 retracement of wave 3.

Inner waves of the suspected wave 1 down are labelled in RED.

note first sub wave 1 red down at 238.59

then a more than 61.8% retracement for the wave 2 Red up.

Wave 3 down is seen with a bearish pennant (small wave 2 inside wave 3) followed by a symmetrical triangle ( triangle corrective wave 4 - indicating a continuing trend down ) waiting for wave 5 inside this wave 3 to finish of at the target range of FE 161.8 @ 237.55 to FE 200.00@ 237.13.

Then expect a retrace of about 38.2% of wave 3 towards 238.15 for the wave 4.

Then Price continues to go down towards the 38.2% FIB Level in Magenta ( 235.89.

Note that this is in the Yellow box where the FE Target Range of 261.8 - 300.00 (Wave 5 target range) is located.

Also note that the 1st impulse wave 1 of a possible reversal in trend must over balance the previous wave 5 impulse wave of same degree whose origin is at 236.14

when wave 5 or this first impulse weave is finished, we then expect price to retrace to the upside by at least 61.8% which could probably take us back to the 238.0 area.

EG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #777
  • Oct 9, 2007 12:46am Oct 9, 2007 12:46am
Going back to the Daily chart on Post # 771

I have reviewed my wave counts again and made some adjustments.

To me it seems that a complete impulse wave has been finished now topping at 239.70 which falls on the or near the 61.8% retracement of rthe drop from 251.07 to 219.31 @ 238.94 Just a 24 pip difference.

This impulse wave could either be the whole of the sub wave c inside the Big Wav B up or it is only wave 1 of the sub wave c up od Big Wave B up.

There are 2 ways to verify this.

First, understand that price will fall or is falling now. I expect it to retrace once it reaches the vicinity of 236.0. If prices retraces and goes higher than 239.70, then there will be a continuation of the sub wave Cc up of the Big Wave B Up. this means we are in a wave 3 inside the sub wave c.

If price upon reaching 236, retraces no higher than 239.70 and starts to go down again, then next arget would be 229.72 specially if it goes lower than 232.37

EG
  • #778
  • Oct 9, 2007 1:05am Oct 9, 2007 1:05am
Quoting kenari05
can you analyze australian dollars?

Here you go. I hope this helps.

On the 4 hour chart, I see AUDUSD having finished wave 3 at 0.9033
Expectuing a wave 4 retrace which is commonly seen at 38.2% (0.8704) this could be 1st TP.

Depending on how the wave infolds, it is still possible for it to go down up to 50-61.8%

Technically, it just should not go lower than wave 1 end at 0.8335.


EG
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  • #779
  • Oct 9, 2007 1:24am Oct 9, 2007 1:24am
for
kenari05

Potential direction of AUDUSD as I see it on my chart

First I am looking at at least a 38.2 retracement as my 1st TP. next would be 50% then 61.8%.

Need to watch the waves unfold.

Maximum price can go down is till wave 1 end at 0.8335

afte finishong wave 4 it then goes back to the uptrend targetting the area of PARITY with the USD.

EG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #780
  • Oct 9, 2007 7:26pm Oct 9, 2007 7:26pm
With the unfolding of the waves last night, the expected Fall of the pair has failed.

I have missed or maybe I completely ignored the rule that Wave 3 should never be the shortest.

**** Now I remember,
1st Is how I labelled Point 34. As you can see in the chart, I labelled Point or wave 34 at 234.93. If we look at wave 32.... we see the same form which is a simple sharp down move ( corrective wave ) _ high % of mistake here.

2nd my wave 51 seems wrong now. from a 4h chart then go down to the 1 hour chart, the 1st standard 5 wave impulse ends lower than the wave 33 aqua. It may have gone up some more to go higher. but looking at it now, it looks more like the continuation was for the sub wave b abd sub wave c inside the 1st leg of a corrective wave A which is divided inti 3 instead of 5.

3rd if i labelled 52 as the 34, then the rule of alternation would have been satisfied which is probably why I considered 239.70 as the top. because my point 2 landed on where 52 is on the current chart.

My use of the FIB Extention tool to compare wave lengths ( comparing wave 3 and wave 5 basing it on the FE 100.0. has encountered a dilemna specially with a complex corrective wave where the possibility of a Wave c being shorter than wave a occurs. This dilemna is where I should start measuring the length of the next wave such as wave 5. will it be at the end of the shorter sub wave c or is it at the end of the longest sub wave in the complex wave?? because I probably used the end of the last sub wave which unfortunately was shorter than normal causing me to have a shorter wave 5 measurement compared to the previous wave 3 length

So a revision of the micro wave count needs to be done.

EG
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd count revision_100907.gif Size: 24 KB
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