Elliott Wave Counting with EG

Checking the Technical Indicators,

As price goes to the Pivot Level @ 234.38, it enters the breakout area of previous days LOW.

If a 15m candle opens and closes below previous day's low, then I will next watch for the 4 hr candle. if both open and close below the prevoious day's low @ 234.71, then we may see further fall of this pair towards

233.82
233.50
233.27
233.21 Weekly Pivot

Stochastics on 4hour chart has crossed back below the 80 Level
5m 15m 30m and 1 hr are now oversold. we may see a slight retracement to getthis lower TF stochs to over bought levels before price continues to go down.

We could be in a C.3.3.4 or a 5.3.3.4 Wave in GBPJPY and this retracement or move down I would consider as the wave 4 retracement in the possible wave count I presented above.

Although the move down may now be limited by the wave 4 requirements which would mean that price retracement should be watched at the following levels:
38.2 - 235.26 may be favored as it is near the 235.20 end of sub wave 4 of prior impulse wave.
50.0 - 234.71
61.8 - 234.15

EG

ALL the details above just serve to open our minds to possible levels of support and resistance including projection levels.

Looking for a bounce on the folowing Levels

15m - EMA 200 = 235.36
Daily 5SMA = 235.20
Channel Bottom = 235.05
Previous Day's Low = 234.71
Daily S2 = 234.60
15m Major Support = 234.38

Already entered a long at the 15m EMA 200 bounce for the minor retracement.

EG

What do you think EG. Any hint where GU would be?

Hi .

I think GBPUSD will either DIP towards 2.0318 then move up towards 2.0587 or just proceed to 2.0587 from where it is now.

2.0587 is C=A in a Big Wave B of this Wave 4 corrective wave. But this Big Wave b can stil go higher than the previous high of 2.0652 on my chart if this turns out to be an expanded flat corrective wave.

So, I think we are in a wave c inside a Big Wave B UP.

I think, GBPJPY is going to follow this pattern too after having broken the 235.50 Resistance Level.


Something that I noticed though on the chart you posted...
wave 4 overlapped with wave 1 in your wave c.

EG

GBPJPY Chart

Wave 4 or 34 Limit.

not to go lower than 234.55 or the end of wave 31 before proceeding upwards.

but should it go lower, then either the wave count is invalid or we are building a bigger wave, wave 333 and consider the previous wave 33 as wave 331

And current wave as wave 332 which could go as low as 232.37 for a 100% retracement.

If it still goes lower than that, I will need to re-assess wave counts

EG

4hour stochshas crossed back below 80 level
5m and 15m stochs have reached over bought conditions and crossed back below 80 Level.

Price failed to open and close a candlestick above the 50EMA and 100EMA of 15m chart

a doji and a bearish engulfing candle closed on 15m ad 30m charts.

GBP news was came out lower than expected. (not good)


Combining aove factors would lead me to be bearish Biased up to 234.55

EG

GBPJPY has moved NORTH. broke thru 50 and 100 EMA and even thru the Daily Pivot. Candle was opened and closed above Daily Pivot. Bt it was a Bearish Candle.

Will wait for a Bullish Candle to open and close above the Daily pivot.

It is still possible for price to go back down.

Based on attached chart, I think we are now having a wave 2 retracement targetting at least 61.8% though normally 78.6 for GBPJPY but also up to 88%.

Maximum retracement is at 234.93 . if it goes lower than this, then wave 32 is not finished going down and we will still possibly see234.55

EG

NOTE that this Bearish Bias is for my intraday trade.
This week already is Bullish with the break of 235.50 and even going up to 237.04 on my chart.


This bias actually stems from the fact that 4 hour stochs as crossed back thru the 80 Level.

Based on observing my charts and how stochastics movement is related to EW, I have often observed that Price turning points which somehow are parallel to wave change happen on the 4hour charts.

Now, no wonder many professional traders trade based on the 4 hour charts.

It is true that this is not 100% full proof. We still neeed to ensure that we have a valid wave count and the sub waves inside the primary waves on that particular chart follow the EW Rules.

Neither is it a hundred percent assurance that when we see 4 hour stochs crossing back into the 80-20 zone would mean a wave change even with a valid complete sub wave count.

I still need to supplement it with other tools.

Based on the above conditions, I think we have finished wave 34 and we have just finished wave 351 up. Now we are coming down for wave 352.

Targets will be from 235.45 down to 235.10 or till 234.94.

That is assuming price does not go lower than 234.93

EG

My GBPJPY Short Trade

I am still nursing a short trade that has gone almost 300 pips against me.

I use 600-800 pips SL for GBPJPY on my live trades. could be expensive for my short forward trades. But this allows me to relax more while trading.

So often I exit my losing trades just about less than 100 pips before it makes a reversal and goes back to my point of entry.

With the current short trade which I entered around 234.30 thinking that it would fall, has already rode the price up to 237.07 on Alpari

right now, I think this is wave 4 expanding and could only go as low as 234.16 to be a valid wave 4. Using Alpari Demo now while yesterday's demo was from fibo group. somehow today , I am having trouble with the latter's platform.

So .... I will have to exit this short trade for a loss and get on the Long Trade after that.

I will just have to take this loss and mange to reduce it.

Overall I think there is stil a wave 5 leg ging UP.

if it goes beyond 237.60, then it will be confirmed that this is a big Wave B.

But if the wave 5 up finishes at or belw 237.60, then the Big C wave down should commence.

Normally, the wave 1 down of wave c is not recommended for trading,

Only after a pullback to almost near the wave c origin has happened could we confirm that it is indeed a wave c and that the pullback is wave 2.

From here then is the recommended point of entry for the trip down to most likely lower than 219.31.

EG

Definitely in Big B wave. 237.60 was breached. that was end of Suppposed wave 1.

I was thinking that this would go much higher still for the end of wave 5 in wave c inside big wave B.

However, my chart showed an earlier pin bar on the 1hr and now another pinbar is closed on my 4 hour chart.

so this could be the end of the Big Wave B UP and now we start the trip down Big Wave C.

Expect a 5 wave impulse down then a retracement up towards our current high of 237.83 .

If price goes higher than current high of 237.83, then Big Wave B is not finished.

EG

Tried to stay out of the NY session but got on a long trade at the wrong time not taking note of the double top on the 1hour and the stochastics cross on same chart .

so currently nursing 2 opposite trades.

either way, I can still reduce further loss as this down ward mnove will retrace so that long trade will have a much smaller loss I hope and then I can enter a new short trade from there, while I continue nursing the previous short trade.

Potential Direction

1st Chart is 4hour chart

With the breach of 237.60 which is the end of supposed wave 1, Count has to be revised and to me it is confirmed now that we are in a Big Wave B from 219.31 Low.

High of 251.07 to Low of 219.31 is Big Wave A in 3 parts/waves abc.

Big Wave B developed into a sideways wave with its sub wave b developing into a complex wave.

Note where I placed my Sub wave B Red Label. It is from there where my wave 1 inside Wace 1 starts.

Moving on to the 1 hour chart, you will see a bullish symmetrical triangle which is part of the complex wave inside sub wave b of Big wave B. Check the 3rd chart for more of the details.

Then you see an upward wedge which when completed could result to a break to the downside.

Then notice the Andrew's Pitchforks which I used to create channels to assist me in my count. EW Counts for this sub wave c in 5 parts are in Yellow.

To me wave 5 is still not complete and is missing 1 more impulse wave up. If you look at yor 4 hour chart, there is a red pinbar or long nosed Candlestick which is normally a sign for a reversal trend and BEARISH at that.

But this pin bar needs a confirmation. I would consider this as just a heads up since I think an impulse wave is still missing.

with the completion of the impulse wave, I think a throw over to the upside of the wedge is possible. ( notice the higher "5?" with the Magenta Check mark ). this will coincide with the upper side of the Andrews Pitchfork (magenta).

This somehow is in the vicinity of 238.50 Level.

Analyzing sub wave c of theis Big Wave B, I use the FIB Extention tool and notice that wave 3 is smaller than Wave 1. This means that wave 5 must be smaller than wave 3 to have a valid EW Count where wave 3 is never the smallest.

Then using a second FIB Extention toolusing end of point 2 point 3 and point 4, I would assume that final wave 5 must be less than wave 3 .

So wave 5 must end lower than 239.63

Now from other FIB Extention Projections I came up with the range of 240 down to 237.40 I think.

But looking at the final chart I posted and combining the EW Count with the channel and the wedge, I would conservatively set my TP at 238.50.

Currently I hold a Short Trade from 234.30
And 2 Long Trades from 237.79 ( a very bad entry ) and at 237.25

The first Long trade I entered was a mistake I realized after seeing the pinbar on 4 hours. the double top on 1 hour, I did not heed. I tried to hop on the long trade thinking it would keep going up.

You will also see an line projecting from AQUA d going thru supposed to be the end of yellow wave 4. That was an additional using 12345 bullish triangle projecting price for a reversal after point 5 is reached or after the throwover.

Taking this analysis further... if price thus reverses as projected, EW Count would normally see a 5 wave impulse ending slightly lower ( or beyond previous wave 4.

Before posting this finally.. price is currently on the bottom edge of the wedge. It should bounce from here.

So let us see how this unfolds.

EG

Weekly R2 is at 238.51

I think Wave count for this wave 5 will be valid unles price goes lower than 236.77 which is the end of wave 1 inside this wave 5.

The Magenta pitchfork somehow should contain the price within its channel.

See attached chart.

I have refined the lines and the channels for better presentation and precision for trendlines.

EG

I got stopped out of my last long trade for 65pips which included the 20 pip spread as price dropped lwer than 236.77 (wave 1 end). I left my trade running this morning ( Asia) while I went out for 6 hours to take care of other things.

I knew I got stopped out as I was monitoring price thru my PDA.

However, my other 2 trades were still ok as the short trade had almost 600 pip spread while the other long was 300.

Anyway, after the BOE news, I closed my long trade for a 35 pip loss and entered a Short trade at around 237.30.

Records on my broker will indicate a forward value of lessless than 100 pips so actual short values are
233.30
236.70

Which would translate to
234.30
237.70 on most MT4 platforms

notice how price stayed within the channel during the fal this morning.

A 5th wave is allowed to have wave 4 over lap with wave 1. I have revised my wave count and notice what I consider as wave 4 red now.

Earlier I just labelled 123 and was looking/waiting for wave 4. after the news, I think price will not go any higher (ooooppps..... everytime I say something, price goes the otherway. maybe I should adopt a contrarian attitude here. anyway.... on we go) than the 237.83 NY noon yesterday.

So now I have 12345 where wave 2 is expanded and wave 4 is a shard retrace. still within the rule of alternation.

Results
Total 100 pip loss for 2 trades.


EG

I have to leave again.

TP level I think should be 233.09 which is the 261.8% FE Level.

If I was watching this trade I would mnitor wave 3 and 5 at the following ranges.

161.8 - 200.0 FE sub wave 3
261.8 - 300.0 FE sub wave 4

However, I think Wave 1 of Big Wave C down must go lower than 229.72 which is about 228.72 pips on my forward trade with my broker. Overall that is even more than 425.0 FE from where I projected it from and this is still possible.

So I will actuallly set my TP at 229.72 conservatively while I go out for another 5 hours. Any thing can still happen during these period.

this pair has the potential to drop further down than my TP. but will be happy to exit at that level......

Or move my SL. which ever just incase it is not hit yet when I get back....

Or maybe just leave this trade running from here on.......

EG

EG ///

In the Chart above you just posted
Your wave 4 is overlapping your wave 1 in Red color
----------------------------------------------------------
This should not be :
The low of wave 4 must not touch the high of wave 1

- I sent you the files to study Elliott Waves
Did you not read about this rule ?

-------------------------------------------------------------
Please go back and read the files

Thank you marketwavez for looking thru my charts.

Yes I am aware that it overlapped in this last chart. In my earlier chart this was not the case because I was thinking that with the BOE news price should go up and follow the normal wave structure. However when the news failed to get this up and the following things I observed on my charts :

1. price actually fell and overlapped with wave1 ( I was thinking a long the lines that an overlap by wave 4 with wave 1 was allowed in a diagonal triangle specially in a wave 5 of a wave c and I mis judged this wedge triangle as such) I further bent the rule by allowing a thorover of sub wave wave outside of the triangle wedge.
2. then nearly broke the triangle/wedge and the lower side of the Pitchfork channel.
3. then went up again but not yet reaching the previous peak 237.83 ( if this was sub wave 1 of the 1st wave inside Big wave C down then a 100% retracement to 237.83 was possible. ) What I missed to write on my post though was that I prepared myself to accept that mistake if that peak was breached. I was in a hurry to leave my computer for something else so I did not have time to explain my self then.

Now that my assumptions were proven wrong, I was going thru my previous charts that I posted here, I was wondering If you could please help me / correct me regarding the 4hour chart I posted on post # 732.

Here I have the Big wave A down in yellow. Then my Big Wave B up is divided into ABC Red where as you will see Sub wave b red is divided into abc x abcde ( a flat and a triangle joined by an x wave).

Because now I am torn between using that and using the earlier chart I posted in post #725 and 726. where sub wave b (aqua) of Big wave B UP is divided into a then a 3 wave b then c to end sub wave b aqua.

from here I start wave 1 up of Big wave C up and I also labelled wave 2 there in post #726.


Could you please enlighten me on this marketwavez?

I will not hide the fact that I use EW and supplement and compare my targets with targets I obtain using other systems.

Granting that I maintain the sub wave red B count in my last post, it seems that we may still see a higher price level next week if basing it just on the wave structure look. It means that wave 5 in C is not yet finished.

If I adopt the wave count in post # 725, then sub wave 5 (wave 35) inside wave 3 of Big wave C up is not yet finished.

Currently have just 1 Short position from 233 area from 09-28-still ( with a wide almost 900+ pip SL. to 242.50 ).

Analyzing this more, I am more inclined to follow my count on the post #725. What do you think?

EG

Daily Chart

Labelled why I think It will unfold as such

Tools used are

1. EW Principle
2. Fib Extention Tool for Projecting EW Waves
3. Fib Retracement Levels/Range

EG

Chart 1

I should have posted this first before the chart on the upper post so you can better see the transition.

Anyway, I tried enhacing the previous chart to have more details for the final Analysis.

I hope somebody makes money out of this should it ever unfold as such.

EG