Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Yes the Cable is showing signs of a classic 1-2-3 formation for a move to approximately 1.9220, which would coincide with the 61.8% retracement. Then maybe a run to 2.000 or whatever, we'll see what she does, but there was a trendline break that provided me with a short entry into the trade, and as she moves towards 1.9450 I'll be looking to move my stop to break even and stop worrying about it and spend the holidays with family.

I am always, always weary of large obvious patterns on such a popular pair but a duck is a duck....so I have to try.

Goodthings, I figured out way 2 upload the charts using websites.

Cesarnc, thanx 4 the link

danegg7, thanx 4 sharing that useful info. I had read about the 123 formation but never paid much attention 2 it. Scrolling back through the daily & hourly charts of the Euro & GBP, I saw numerous instances where the 123 pattern comes into play. The link clarified matters a lot. Just last month I started forex trading...guess I have a lot 2 learn about this market. Intially I was like focussing on trendlines & fibonacci levels & fundamentals...will have 2 broaden my view on both the short term & long term trends

Good luck 2 all ya guys that make FF a great online community!!

Cable is showing a pretty strong signal south vs. the dollar. For all that follow Joe Dinapoli, this is a classic double repo pattern on the daily charts and it was confirmed on friday. How you enter is up to you, but look for a fast move down to the 1.9200 area within the next week or two.

I don't know what to think but we should all be aware of this as a possibility and the market will tell us where she's headed!

http://www.halturnershow.com/ChinaToDumpUSDollars.html

CHINA TO DUMP ONE TRILLION IN U.S. RESERVES!

Tells visiting Bush administration officials they will not sit back and lose their shirts as U.S. Dollar collapses; they are getting out fast and large!


BEIJING, CHINA -- Sources with a U.S. Delegation in Beijing have told The Hal Turner Show the Chinese government has informed visiting Bush Administration officials they intend to dump One TRILLION U.S. Dollars from China's Currency Reserves and convert those funds into Euros, gold and silver!

China was allegedly asked to withhold the announcement until Bullion Markets closed for the weekend to prevent an instant spike in gold and silver prices. This delay will give the world the weekend to consider appropriate actions rather than have a knee-jerk reaction which could see the U.S. Dollar totally collapse in value Monday.

According to this Senior source, China told the U.S. delegation they no longer have faith in U.S. Currency for several reasons:

1) The Federal Reserve Bank ceased publishing "M3" data in March, making it nearly impossible for anyone to know how much cash is being printed. China said this act made it impossible to tell how much a Dollar is worth.

2) The U.S. Dollar has lost upwards of thirty percent (30%) of its value against other foreign currencies in the recent past, meaning China has lost almost $300 Billion simply by holding U.S. Dollars in its reserves.

3) The U.S. has no plans whatsoever to reduce deficit spending or ability pay down any of its existing debt without printing money to pay it off.

For these reasons China has decided to implement an aggressive sell-off of U.S. Dollars before the rest of the world does so. China reportedly told the US delegation; "we are the largest holder of U.S. Currency and if the rest of the world unloads theirs before we unload ours, we will lose our shirts."

Early this week, in an unusual move, the Bush administration sent virtually the entire economic "A-team" to visit China for a "strategic economic dialogue" in Beijing Dec. 14 and 15.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke lead the delegation, along with five other cabinet-level officials, including Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez. Also in the delegation is Labor Secretary Elaine Chao, Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt, Energy Secretary Sam Bodman, and U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab.

The Bush administration wanted to get China's cooperation in preventing a dollar collapse. The Hal Turner Show has been told the effort failed.

According to the source, Fed Chairman Bernanke left the meeting "pale and in a cold sweat" as the implications of China's decision seemed to sink in.

The implications are enormous: The U.S. Dollar is likely to collapse in value against all other major currencies as early as Monday, December 18.

This would cause a worldwide sell-off of dollars, create almost immediate "hyper-inflation" in the US and also impact world markets at a level "worse than the Great Depression of 1929."

Arabs to the rescue?

In a strange twist of fate, Arabs and OPEC may come to the rescue of the U.S.!

Senior officials in OPEC made clear that they too would be severely harmed if the U.S. Dollar collapsed, and hinted they "would not be inclined to sell oil to any particular nation that intentionally caused such a collapse."

This was a thinly veiled threat to China, which depends heavily on OPEC oil for its rapidly developing energy needs.

The OPEC officials even went so far as to say "Since China lacks the ability to project their military power, OPEC nations need not worry about any Chinese military response to an oil cut-off."

Such brutally candid remarks will not sit well with China; and signal ominous things for the U.S. .

Arabs and OPEC will want something in return for saving the U.S. from economic collapse and it is already widely speculated what they want will be a complete change in U.S. backing of Israel in the Middle East.

If such demands are made by the oil-rich Arabs, the U.S. would be left with little choice but to virtually abandon the jewish state to preserve itself.

-------------------------------------

UPDATE 10:18 PM:
The Washington Post confirms. . . .
"U.S., China Clash On Currency" <small>Click Here</small>
-- ---------------------------------

<small>UPDATE 12:07 AM EST, Saturday, December 16, 2006:

Additional sources, one in the U.S. Commerce Department and another in the US Treasury have confirmed the initial report above and referred me to another, Third, source in the Pentagon.

Both the Commerce and Treasury Sources report that while China will not be able to simply trade their Dollars for other paper currencies, they will spend their U.S. Cash on commodities such as gold, silver and Rhodoium as well as military hardware; ships and planes, placing large orders and paying for those orders with the one point one trillion in cash dollars they possess.

Extreme Military Concern

In speaking with the contact at the Pentagon, I am able to now report the Pentagon views this currency-killing as a cunning military aspect to Chinese plans:

The Pentagon says that while China has a 2 Million man army, they lack the logistics and heavy lift capability to move that army and supply it. They can, however, get that military to South Korea and to Japan.

The Chinese see that the U.S. Military is over-stretched and almost exhausted by its globe trotting Commander-In-Chief. They feel that by intentionally destabilizing the dollar, the U.S. economy will fail, putting tens of millions of Americans on the unemployment line and putting unbearable pressure on the US Government.

Then, with the U.S. economy in shambles and its manufacturing base eroded by a steady stream of manufacturing plants moving out of the US., the American government will be too occupied with troubles at home to do much internationally. America will be in no position to challenge China, allowing the Chinese to act militarily elsewhere in the world;

Further, if the U.S. attempted to intervene against any Chinese military action, the only plant in the world which can manufacture the specialized gyros needed for U.S. Cruise Missile guidance systems, is now located in. . . . .China.

China could prevent that plant from shipping to the U.S., and once our arsenal of cruise missiles was depleted, it would take a long time to re-tool a plant to make more gyros and resupply cruise missiles for battle. The Chinese feel they could accomplish certain military goals before the U.S. could re-tool.

They are also confident the U.S. will never "go nuclear" as long as the U.S. itself is not attacked.

The Pentagon source went so far as to say "Even if China was to lose the entire one trillion in cash to a collapse of the Dollar as a currency, they will have succeeded in taking the U.S. off the world stage as any type of effective military or economic power -- without firing a shot!" </small>A 'classic' Sun Tzu paradigm of victory - the art of fighting, without fighting.
<small>
The crippling of the US is a highly desirable military benefit for China at a relatively cheap price since it will leave their human capital and infrastructure assets in place; assets they know they would lose if a hot war erupted with the U.S..</small>

This article was published Friday evening (EST). Why can't I find any verification of this ANYWHERE else?

A friend just sent me that article and my eyes popped out of my head. That's why we'll just have to see what the market does when she opens up. The larger public may not even be aware but it's just something to keep in the back of our heads IMO as this may very well be true!

<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="465"> <tbody> <tr> <td class="t18">http://english.people.com.cn/200612/...15_332934.html

Dollar will continue to depreciate</td></tr> <tr> <td align="right">[img]/images/3zoom.gif[/img] <script language="javascript"><!-- drawline1(); //--></script> <script langage="javascript"> printResizeButton(); </script> [img]/images/plus.gif[/img][img]images/spacer.gif[/img] [img]/images/minus.gif[/img] </td></tr> <tr> <td>
At the end of last month, the US dollar against the Euro depreciated to its lowest in the last 20 months on the New York Foreign Exchange Market, while the dollar against the British pound depreciated to the lowest in 14 years. On Monday, the Euro closed at 1:1.3251 against the dollar and the previous day it closed at 1:1.3200. The pound closed at 1:1.9587 against the dollar and the previous day it closed at 1:1.9525. The dollar to Swiss Francs also fell to 1:1.2014 from 1:1.2049 the previous day.

The weak dollar is a reflection of the long-term depreciation of the US dollar. Over the last three years, the US dollar against the Euro has depreciated by 35 percent and against the Japanese Yen, 24 percent. Since February 2002 against a package of currencies, the US dollar has depreciated by 23 percent.

Various indicators suggest that the US dollar will continue to depreciate. Why?

One of the main reasons for the depreciation of the US dollar depreciation is the slowdown of the domestic economy.

Ge Huayong, Executive Director of the International Monetary Fund in China, told reporters that from a macro-economic perspective, the US dollar will continue to depreciate because of the global economic situation. Various indicators suggest the US economy will slow between the end of this year and the beginning of the next while there is good reason to expect European economic growth. The Japanese economy is showing signs of a revival while the emerging market economies of countries like China and India continue to have strong growth momentum.

The changes in the global economic situation have led to a change in the floating direction of foreign investment, another factor in the depreciation of the US dollar.

Ge Huayong said that from a micro-economic point of view, the main reason for the depreciation of the dollar was market speculation on forex reserves. It was anticipated that some countries with large foreign exchange reserves in US dollars would be looking to reduce their US dollar reserves. The European Central Bank increased the interest rate again to encourage investors to sell their dollars and buy Euro. The US real estate market has slowed leading to a significant downturn in consumer confidence.

Another reason for the depreciation of the dollar is that the US government has not yet intervened. Analysts say the US government has been compliant in the depreciation of the dollar. The depreciation of the dollar promotes the export of US products and reduces trade imbalances. In the long run, the stimulus of demand and an increase in savings will help reduce the double deficit to a point where it is sustainable. In the meantime, the depreciation will substantially reduce the US' foreign debts. The advantages of the depreciation outweigh the disadvantages, so the government is unlikely to intervene. It is interesting to see that the US government supports the depreciation, but that both US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and his predecessor John W. Snow believe that a strong dollar is in the interest of America.

Some American researchers believe that the policy of a strong US dollar has died. The US hopes the dollar will depreciate in an orderly fashion, but are not willing to announce this openly. If they did so, the rate of depreciation would accelerate and the country is unwilling to let the dollar fall so quickly.

US decision-makers believe the depreciation is a good way to resolve imbalances in the US economy. However, the American people are complaining. Domestic goods are very cheap, but due to depreciation, imported products are increasing in price. More importantly, it will be more expensive for Americans to travel to Europe, Japan or any other country. Many people have already abandoned their travel plans to Europe because of the expense.

The depreciation of the US dollar and the appreciation of the RMB have reduced China's export competitiveness. Due to a decrease in the import of Chinese-made Christmas gifts to the US, there is a shortage of Christmas gifts on the US market. It is expected that Santa Claus might not have so many gifts to send out this year.

The US dollar cannot depreciate too quickly as this would be a big problem for the world economy. British economists say that if the US dollar depreciates too quickly, it will affect the "global bubble". It will cause new inflation pressure so that the banks will not be able to shield the collapse of the real estate market. If that happened, the whole world would be affected.

Ge Huayong agrees with this. He says the US dollar must depreciate gradually in an orderly fashion by just a small margin at a time so as not to affect the world economy. If the dollar depreciates on a large scale, the global economy would have to bear the consequences and emerging economic powers like China would take a heavy blow as much of their foreign exchange reserves are in US dollars.

However, Mr. Ge believes that there are many positive things about the US economy and the complete US financial market which are keeping the dollar stable and the possibility of a crash to a minimum.


</td></tr></tbody></table>

Pfffff,

I'm not sure whether I should reply to such a bunch of cow droppings from a white supremist website.

China and US are in a deadlock. US is the single largest importer of cheap chinese exports. So a massive sell-off of the USD by the chinese will hurt chinese exports massively and is not in the chinese interest.

And chinese going to war now that the US forces are over stretched... In their view, trade is war and they are underway to beat the US there. Starting a war will harm their exports and throw them back into isolation and poverty.

Agreed.

Also, see this thread.

I didn't realize that there was a seperate thread on this non-sense. Anyway, waste too much efforts on it already.

Interesting isn't it that all these people know so much on what is going on in the world and all the secrets of goverments in high places. All the dirty tricks and back door deals. But rather than sit quietly and wait the come to Forex Factory and post what is going on to help us the little guys.

HA HA it is to laugh.

China is a smart and patient country who will control the world in time, but the USA won't sit back and wait to become no.2 lightly, why do you think they are going to such lengths to secure Oil in Iraq, it's also a good strategic location to watch / attack china from if needs be in the future.

tip trading for the week, Short my account, guaranteed winner

Hey, I never said I believed this that's why I posted it and titled it "What do you guys think?" IMO I think the GBP is actually on it's way down to 9200 short term but that remains to be seen. Like I said a friend of mine passed along that link and I looked at it and just thought I'd pass it along here to see what the consensus is. Anyways, happy trading and either way this sucker goes as long as we're on the right side of it we're gonna make money!

For me looks like Dr. Evil asking for 1 bbbbbbillion, trillion, asdsffillion, adsdahgfgdfillion dollars or a meteor will hit Earth causing a global flooding...

GROOOVE BABY... YEEEEAHHHH...

China Set To Reduce Exposure To Dollar
Move Would Probably Push Currency Down




By Peter S. Goodman
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, January 10, 2006; D01


SHANGHAI, Jan. 9 -- China has resolved to shift some of its foreign exchange reserves -- now in excess of $800 billion -- away from the U.S. dollar and into other world currencies in a move likely to push down the value of the greenback, a high-level state economist who advises the nation's economic policymakers said in an interview Monday.

As China's manufacturing industries flood the world with cheap goods, the Chinese central bank has invested roughly three-fourths of its growing foreign currency reserves in U.S. Treasury bills and other dollar-denominated assets. The new policy reflects China's fears that too much of its savings is tied up in the dollar, a currency widely expected to drop in value as the U.S. trade and fiscal deficits climb.

China now boasts the world's second-largest cache of foreign exchange -- behind only Japan -- and is on pace to see its reserves climb past $1 trillion later this year. Even a slight diminishing of the dollar as a percentage of those holdings could exert significant pressure on the U.S. currency, many economists assert.

In recent years, the value of the dollar has been buoyed by major purchases of U.S. Treasury bills by Japan, China and oil-exporting countries -- a flow of capital that has kept interests rates relatively low in the United States and allowed Americans to keep spending even as debts mount. Some economists have long warned that if foreigners lose their appetite for American debt, the dollar would fall, interest rates would rise and the housing boom could burst, sending real estate prices lower.

That's hilarious. Thanks for sharing this blast from the past.

My fractal showing down, and price has been levelling off to even with no higher bars. Anyone think this is a good S now?

Personally, I would do NOTHING yet. Give the market time to get going. I'm just about betting on a LONG position long term this week. Just my $3.50 USD worth.

Had a Long cable when the market open. Caught a little bit and noticed fractial signs of down. so exited my L and got into the short.. you might be right to wait though.. I'm happy to catch that 18 pips so far.

Although I see GBP/USD down for the coming day I am waiting until the European session gets going to take a position. We could possibly test up to 9570/90 before starting down for the day. As usual, just what I see.