Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action

Right now it is also around the 21 ema on the weekly.

Understood, try these figures for long term. 39 sma on 4H and 154sma on daily. Daily 1s i'll usually hold for 2-3weeks, hope u'll have fun. Long positions.

appreciate it.

May get strong enough confirmation off of the 30 min 5/13 cross and 4hr candle and not wait for 1hr 5/13 cross. 4hr candle closes at the top of the hour.

The pink line is the (WAR) weekly average range for the gbpusd this year which is 264. The blue line is the (RM) range of motion for all the weeks of the year.

Long both gbpusd and gbpjpy. Finally getting some pips on the gj but struggling on the gu as of now. Inter on the gu on 5/13 cross on the hourly and gbpjpy entered in like normal just shooting from the hip no indicators just movement off of points of sr . Looking at long of the gbpchf for short term. Probably after 2am eastern.

WAR for the GbpUsd

Range of motion for the GbpUsd broken out for all of this year and the last 55 days.

Weekly range of motion for the GbpUsd. As with all currencies the last 10 weeks or so the (RM) on a weekly and daily basis has gone up.

Blue lines are each weeks (RM) range of motion from the weeks low to the weeks high the pink line is (WAR) weekly average range to date. The (WAR) to date is for instance after the first 4 weeks of the year was 349 . After 27 weeks (week beginning July 1) the GbpUsd's (WAR) to date hit 250 which is the low thus far for theyear. Now the GbpUsd's (WAR) has climbed up to 280 and will vary depending on the following weeks (RM) .

The (WAR) for the EurJpy is 340 pips to date. The blue line is the (RM) range of motion based on each weeks high and low for all the weeks of the year. The pink line is the (WAR) weekly average range. The (WAR) changes from week to week because it is the average of all the previous weeks to date. For instance week 4 (WAR) is based on adding the total number of pips a currency has range for the 4 weeks and dividing it by the four weeks. For instance say the (RM) for week 1 is 200 week 2 is 250 week 3 175 week 4 is 225. You would add 200+250+177+225=852 pips / by 4 weeks equal an (WAR) for the first 4 weeks of 212. This is how each weeks(WAR) is calculated.

WAR for the EurJpy

Just want to thank you GOODTHINGS
great, valuable, hard work, perfect, special thread

thanks again, keep it up

The EurJpy. To state the obvious the range of motion for all currencies has increased in the last couple of months.

GbpUsd (DAR) daily average range

GbpUsd daily (RM) the past 40 days. The pink line is the (DAR) of 120 pips for the year. The blue line is the daily (RM) for each of the last 40 days.

Pink line shows the daily (RM) for the last 41 to 80 days (see previous post for the last 40 days) and the blue line is the 120 pip (DAR) for the year. The increased (RM) has started about 50 trading days ago.

Hi Goodthings, I will be watching the pairs you study for closes at or very near daily or weekly Highs/Lows. I will exit 50% position at 23.6 Fib retracement and move stop to b/e. At 38.2 Fib I will exit final 50%. SL is 2x value of retracement to 23.6. My close is NYC close. Let's see what happens. Thanks for everything. Pippo

Up dated retracements GbpUsd

I have learned in the last few months that waiting for proper PA (Price Action) for these fibs is important. It almost seems like its a gimme when you have daily fibs of high probability and weekly fibs of high probability (see previous post).
But to click the button with no confirming PA, or even trend, just basing it on statistical probability can get you in a trade you wish you would've waited for or one you wish you would have never been in. Believe me I have done that. I normally trade the 4hr candles/bars with a weekly fib perspective and (DAR) & (WAR) in mind. For me my entry is most important, then I plan my exit based on (DAR) and (WAR). Exit strategy is important but what I see in the market it is hard to get all of a run. I have conceded to the fact that I will always leave pips on the table. But if I get in the heart of the move with a high probability trade I will up my capital invested. Depending on what currencies you trade it is a lot easier for me to grab 60 pips off of GbpJpy then 60 pips off of the EurJpy or GbpUsd. Those are the ones I trade mostly. The SL being 2x the 23.6 I would have to look at it more closely to say. I normally use previous s/r levels. For SL I go about 12 to 15 pips the other side and for TP I normally go 12 to 15 pips this side of s/r levels. Both are extremes but I do not like to use stop losses and I do not like to get stopped out. I do use stop losses but rarely with gbpjpy. Also like everyone else I do not like to miss my TP area by just a few pips and end up breaking even or getting stopped out with a loss. I would much rather grab some of something then all of nothing. So when I target a fib level on the daily I usually go about 10 pips before it and with weekly I go in between them. On the weekly I will some times look for the 23.6 and 38.2 fibs but after that I will go in between. I Always though keep in mind the DAR, S/R, and even different emas for the 4hr, daily, and weekly. Did not plan on writing a book but just thought I would answere your question and maybe a few others you did not ask. To sum it up I like the way the boys (men) from James 16 trade and I like high statistical probability trades based on DAR, WAR, Fibs and S/R break outs.