Statistical Probability Trading With Price Action

Weekly range for the gbpusd this year. It has been 12 weeks since it dropped below the 250 RM between the weekly high and low.

The blue print shows 200 trading days so far this year and how many times and percentage of times the GbpUsd retraces to those level on a daily basis. This is based on it retracing to these levels either the same day or the next day. The green numbers show Weekly retracements from weeks high and low for 2006. The black numbers show Weekly retracements for the 40 weeks so far this year.

Daily (RM) for the GbpUsd. Pink line shows daily (RM) and the blue line is (DAR) of 120 pips for 2007

RM for the GbpUsd last 40 days. The blue line is the (RM)
for the last 40 days and pink line is the 2007 (DAR) of 120 pips.



28,394/178

Hi Goodthings, Thanks again for all of your help. The studies of reracements over 8 yrs. look very convincing. Were s/r, emas, trend, etc. taken into consideration when these stats were being compiled? Before entering a trade, I usually wait for consolidation patterns to form on 15 min. chart, such as double top/bottom, divergences, etc. I will only be trading retracements as they have been studied extensively, while s/r breaks have not. I will be mindful of daily and weekly range of motion stats. I am trading micro lots with this for now. Pippo

DAR averages for the GbpUsd

RM for GbpJpy last 40 days

Daily range of motion (DRM) for GbpJpy the last 41 to 80 days

Hi Tom,
I am most grateful for your excellent work. Your work shows tremendous amount of dedication and professionalism.
May God in His Infinite wisdom, bestow His blessings upon you.
Adam Raja.
PS. Many thanks to all the other contributors.

GbpJpy

GbpJpy WRM and WAR. The yearly for the year to date is 566 pips. By looking at this chart do we expect the GbpJpy to move beyound or below its year WAR?

Current Range of motion is 74 pips for the day the (DAR) daily average range is plus 200 pips. Trade the break out of 20 pips beyond current low or high target 50 pips. Its retraced beyond the 61.8 daily fib of the day's current high and low. Looking for a trade on the up side but if it breaks below looking at a trade on the bottom side then.

Lights out?

Very hard to understand about this technic or this method... Have to read start all over again... Pheewww...

Here is my contribution... R code included if anyone ones to replicate my analysis.

Cheers,
EZcurrency

Hi! Great analysis.
Anywhere i also hv done some statistics analysis by myself. For your info that,i created statistics and backtesting system using visual basic programming.

I would like to fine-tune my current system and if you dont mind could you please share some of your analysis ideas.

I take a look at your analysis and compare mine. My system is based on the probability % at every pricing, so to know which level is the best entry/stop/target. And i hv conducted some backtesting to prove the result.

Would you mind to take a look of my pdf? And please comment if there is a room for improvement. And this also might enlighten you for your advanced analysis.

The pdf is at the post link below.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=360483

Thanks!

could you explain how to extract and use your code into R ? i have tried but i fell ... i may have miss something ..
thanks in advance if you could help

Cheers

Slowbrain

PS: im looking to test GBPUSD since the beginning of the year 2017