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GbpJpy Statistical Probability With Price Action

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Oct 7, 2007 4:44pm Oct 7, 2007 4:44pm
  •  goodthings
  • Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,852 Posts
See http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...04#post1631704 posts 591 thru 595 for up dated gbpjpy statistics.
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  • Post #2
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  • Oct 7, 2007 5:15pm Oct 7, 2007 5:15pm
  •  Northpro
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 551 Posts
Hi Tom,

Here is some more interesting data that I have found in my tool box of info.

Northpro
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  • Post #3
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  • Oct 7, 2007 5:23pm Oct 7, 2007 5:23pm
  •  goodthings
  • Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,852 Posts
Friday is normally retracement after the weeks run? With Wed and Thursday mostly being the heart and end of the trend? Meaning if you are in a trade it would be good to take profits by Thursday?
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  • Post #4
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  • Oct 7, 2007 7:17pm Oct 7, 2007 7:17pm
  •  Northpro
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 551 Posts
Quoting goodthings
Disliked
Friday is normally retracement after the weeks run? With Wed and Thursday mostly being the heart and end of the trend? Meaning if you are in a trade it would be good to take profits by Thursday?
Ignored
Tom,

Means 3 to 5 4hr bars (or candles) happen 29% of the time, 6 to 11 happen 49% etc...

NP
 
 
  • Post #5
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  • Oct 7, 2007 7:26pm Oct 7, 2007 7:26pm
  •  goodthings
  • Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,852 Posts
GbpJpy pink line is 238 pip DAR for 2007 the blue is daily RM last 40 days
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  • Post #6
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  • Oct 9, 2007 2:56am Oct 9, 2007 2:56am
  •  goodthings
  • Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,852 Posts
GbpJpy after moving 111 pips ( see previous posts for WAR and DAR) its retraced to within 7 pips of the daily 61.8 fib based on current lows and highs. This again is typical (whats typical?) after moving a 100 pips. Have not compiled any real data for this. With a new trading session opening could determine daily trend.
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  • Post #7
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  • Oct 14, 2007 4:53pm Oct 14, 2007 4:53pm
  •  goodthings
  • Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,852 Posts
See link for last weeks gbpjpy statistics.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...04#post1631704 posts 591 thru 595
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  • Post #8
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  • Oct 14, 2007 5:06pm Oct 14, 2007 5:06pm
  •  goodthings
  • Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,852 Posts
Looking at the (SP) statistical probability for weekly (RM) GbpJpy. The EurJpy had a wider weekly range of motion (WRM) 350 pips then the pounds 338 pips.
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  • Post #9
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  • Oct 14, 2007 5:17pm Oct 14, 2007 5:17pm
  •  goodthings
  • Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,852 Posts
The GbpJpy closed 93 pips below the weekly high. On the weekly chart it is at a strong level of past s/r level. It also is 1173 pips below the 7/08/07 weekly high were the EurJpy is around 221 pips below its long time high of the week of 7/08/07.
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  • Post #10
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  • Oct 20, 2007 10:19am Oct 20, 2007 10:19am
  •  goodthings
  • Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,852 Posts
The GbpJpy has found support at the top of a 24 day 664 pip range. It also is around the 50 fib of the bottom of the range area and the high after it broke out. The 61.8 fib (232.99) of the previous fib points is around 200 pips below it's Friday close. Another area right below the 61.8 fib is 232.45 which is an area where there were more then a half a dozen daily highs,lows,close, and opens.






382
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  • Post #11
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  • Edited 11:20am Oct 20, 2007 11:01am | Edited 11:20am
  •  goodthings
  • Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,852 Posts
S/R levels from a weekly look, shows the GbpJpy closed for the week at previous weeks high and lows for other weeks too.
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  • Post #12
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  • Oct 20, 2007 11:09am Oct 20, 2007 11:09am
  •  goodthings
  • Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,852 Posts
Post 10 starts updated information from this past weeks trading
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  • Post #13
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  • Oct 20, 2007 11:10am Oct 20, 2007 11:10am
  •  goodthings
  • Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,852 Posts
Post 10 starts updated information from this past weeks trading for GbpJpy
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  • Post #14
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  • Oct 20, 2007 2:21pm Oct 20, 2007 2:21pm
  •  goodthings
  • Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,852 Posts
Post 10 starts new up dates from last weeks GbpJpy. The daily RM statistical probabilities (SP) for gbpjpy the last 55 days is a lot higher in pip movement the last 55 days then the overall average for the year.
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  • Post #15
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  • Oct 21, 2007 1:51pm Oct 21, 2007 1:51pm
  •  goodthings
  • Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,852 Posts
S/R levels on the daily




534
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  • Post #16
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  • Oct 21, 2007 1:54pm Oct 21, 2007 1:54pm
  •  goodthings
  • Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,852 Posts
The 4hr weekly its fully extended with out a major retracement from the weeks high and low. Trading almost 1700 pips below July high plenty of room on the up side.
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  • Post #17
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  • Oct 28, 2007 2:07pm Oct 28, 2007 2:07pm
  •  goodthings
  • Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,852 Posts
(RM) for the GbpJpy on the 4hr candles/Bar. Broken out for the year and pre and post July 23.
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  • Post #18
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  • Oct 29, 2007 7:13pm Oct 29, 2007 7:13pm
  •  goodthings
  • Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,852 Posts
The gbpJpy has been ranging around hourly s/r of around 80 pips. A break out of that could determine trend for the day.
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  • Post #19
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  • Oct 29, 2007 7:19pm Oct 29, 2007 7:19pm
  •  goodthings
  • Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,852 Posts
GbpJpy has bounced off of a major weekly fib of 50. Plenty of room to the top.
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  • Post #20
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  • Oct 30, 2007 2:19am Oct 30, 2007 2:19am
  •  goodthings
  • Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 1,852 Posts
Daily range so far 92 pips. Its retraced to the 50 fib on the daily. The fib points are drawn from the current days low and high. Has a habit of retracing to the 50 or 61.8 daily fibs after around a 100 pip or better run. Then gets set up for a break out.
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