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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #32,421
  • Sep 24, 2007 4:25pm Sep 24, 2007 4:25pm
Quoting Warper
I just corrected the close. Is 2.0220.

I noticed that your daily candle for today is red lol, but if this makes you happy... here is how my chart looks...

http://img519.imageshack.us/img519/5742/ot001go9.jpg

See... its blue lol. "green close"
The difference comes from the fact that your candle is from 22-22 pm GMT and the one on OANDA is from 5am to the next 5AM LOL
.
  • #32,422
  • Sep 24, 2007 4:28pm Sep 24, 2007 4:28pm
Quoting bullrock
The difference comes from the fact that your candle is from 22-22 pm GMT and the one on OANDA is from 5am to the next 5AM LOL
OANDA seem to suck at everything lol.

Freezes...
High spreads...

Daily close at a time that no one cares lol

I think 5pm EST is better not because is the close of the US session, but because is the close of the last session in the day.

Day started... Asia gave their opinion... Europe gave their opinion... US gave their opinion. End
  • #32,423
  • Sep 24, 2007 4:35pm Sep 24, 2007 4:35pm
I know that D1 cable forms the shooting star but h1 and h4 charts have hammer. Shooting star and hammer need the next confirmation candle (the low impact) so don't be rush, you guys.

But when I draw the trendline at h4 charts, cable is still uptrend (exactly at the support line).
  • #32,424
  • Sep 24, 2007 4:40pm Sep 24, 2007 4:40pm
Quoting Warper
Daily close 5pm EST 2.0220

Not a pin bar!

Psicologicaly its almost the same , inverted hammer, but...

Close above previous day high. No pinocchio around...
just note:
Pin bar/Hammers closes isnt important as the important of what is comes before it
to say it's a perfect PB/inverted hammer, we must see Sign Of Strength and this means at least 3/4 bars in the same direction and makes higher highs

and to treat it as reversal, we play on the breakout of it's range
  • #32,425
  • Sep 24, 2007 4:41pm Sep 24, 2007 4:41pm
Many ppl think that its all the same a daily starting at any hour.

I disagree completly. Lets take Dow for example. If the traders knew that they could trade after the close, would that same close matter as much?

Its the same... after the close of US session, the big money there closes some of their positions and another big money will only enter 3-4 hours after that.

5am GMT we are in the middle of a session, and very near the opening of another... the close will be just as important as another hourly close in my opinion, because no bank in Japan is going to do nothing just because a daily candle opens there.



Structural close vs Symbolic close
  • #32,426
  • Sep 24, 2007 4:52pm Sep 24, 2007 4:52pm
anyone long??
  • #32,427
  • Sep 24, 2007 4:55pm Sep 24, 2007 4:55pm
Quoting benssol
anyone long??
I will wait the current confirmation candle h4 bullish closed.
  • #32,428
  • Sep 24, 2007 4:56pm Sep 24, 2007 4:56pm
There are 2 ways to detect a triangle in cable:

1. If you're not lazy

Draw two trendlines - see chart

2. If you are lazy

Read the posts. When people seeing huge spike up start fighting the people seeing huge spike down, there's a triangle.


This MF needs a kick ouf of this triangle, via - yes, sorry to let you down you Big Wave - via a strong market sentiment (fundamental) (gossip, econ data, CB officer, banks melting, whatever)

There are few sellers ouf of this level as the pair is barely above a weekly trendline (poor r:r), dollar not recoverying from its bottom.

There are few buyers out of this level as the pair is suffering from bad news from UK - banks, subprime, weak CPI, lack of new commitment for the end of the month, dollar oversold in the higher timeframes.

And worst of all, UK's data slate this week is non-existent. Unless something really harsh comes from USA we are doomed to stay inside of this triangle for the rest of the week.

AND we are doomed to go on and on and on reading the Bears X Bulls fight here
Attached Image
  • #32,429
  • Sep 24, 2007 5:07pm Sep 24, 2007 5:07pm
Quoting santoso
I will wait the current confirmation candle h4 bullish closed.
I'm looking at 175
  • #32,430
  • Sep 24, 2007 5:16pm Sep 24, 2007 5:16pm
Quoting benssol
anyone long??
Actually, according to my broker's time zone (central europe) the 24th sept daily is closed as a HUGE bearish pin bar. I would not go long, seriously.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #32,431
  • Sep 24, 2007 5:18pm Sep 24, 2007 5:18pm
Quoting Plutonite
Actually, according to my broker's time zone (central europe) the 24th sept daily is closed as a HUGE bearish pin bar. I would not go long, seriously.
are u with MIG??
  • #32,432
  • Sep 24, 2007 5:19pm Sep 24, 2007 5:19pm
Quoting Plutonite
Actually, according to my broker's time zone (central europe) the 24th sept daily is closed as a HUGE bearish pin bar. I would not go long, seriously.
As in the pin-bar material I have states, "the bigger the nose, the bigger the lie"
  • #32,433
  • Sep 24, 2007 5:22pm Sep 24, 2007 5:22pm
Quoting benssol
are u with MIG??
Oui monsieur.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #32,434
  • Sep 24, 2007 5:25pm Sep 24, 2007 5:25pm
Quoting cesarnc
As in the pin-bar material I have states, "the bigger the nose, the bigger the lie"
Well, it just means that in the same day the price went up a lot and for *some unknown reason* dropped down powerfully to where it started or lower. Now I agree with you that extreme volatility (i. when the noses get REALLY big) is a problem because volatile motion leads to violent corrections, but in this case the action has been very steady. Anyway, lets see what happens, I'm not very comfortable putting money into dollars right now either
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #32,435
  • Sep 24, 2007 5:36pm Sep 24, 2007 5:36pm
The support line at 2.0204 of h1 chart (10 candles) is too hard to be broken.
  • #32,436
  • Sep 24, 2007 5:43pm Sep 24, 2007 5:43pm
Quoting Plutonite
Actually, according to my broker's time zone (central europe) the 24th sept daily is closed as a HUGE bearish pin bar. I would not go long, seriously.
I guess that's why some pin bars are getting some ppl burned many times.

You see a bearish candle / pin bar... i see a "gain" candle, that is not even a pin bar... since it closed above the last bar high...


Conclusion... the next time that a pin fails, i completly delete it out of my memory.

Here is a similiar candle like todays, failing in the past...
there are more... believe me...

http://img524.imageshack.us/img524/2...rhot001fn4.jpg
  • #32,437
  • Edited 6:45pm Sep 24, 2007 5:52pm | Edited 6:45pm
Quoting Warper
I guess that's why some pin bars are getting some ppl burned many times.

You see a bearish candle / pin bar... i see a "gain" candle, that is not even a pin bar... since it closed above the last bar high...
Conclusion... the next time that a pin fails, i completly delete it out of my memory.
The third candle from the left was pin bar or the shooting star candle formation. The shooting star has the low impact so that candle needs the confirmation forth candle from the left (bearish). So you couldn't go short.

But in your above chart, the forth candle from the left was bullish so the bearish direction was failed.

Even in my below chart, the shooting star candle (check mark) had the bearish confirmation candle but it was still failed. Like I said that the shooting star candle has the low impact compared to other candle formations.
Attached Image
  • #32,438
  • Sep 24, 2007 6:16pm Sep 24, 2007 6:16pm
Nice setup here me thinks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_18.gif Size: 51 KB
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #32,439
  • Sep 24, 2007 6:29pm Sep 24, 2007 6:29pm
Quoting santoso
The third candle from the left was pin bar or the shooting star candle formation. The shooting star has the low impact so that candle needs the confirmation forth candle from the left (bearish). So you couldn't go short.

But in your above chart, the forth candle from the left was bullish so the bearish direction was failed.

Even in my below chart, the shooting star candle (check mark) had the bearish confirmation candle but it was still failed. Like I said that the shooting star candle has the low impact compared to other candle formations.
Exactly, i follow that procedure...

Trading candle patterns is more conservative, but pin bars you just put the SL the day after and here we go... not good idea i think...

Well, i disagree in the part where you say, that is a lower impact formation (shooting star).

The example you gave is against the trend.

This type of candle have the same psicology of a Doji, so i think it has impact, we just have to know how to filter.
  • #32,440
  • Sep 24, 2007 6:36pm Sep 24, 2007 6:36pm
Quoting OrionsWay
Nice setup here me thinks

Why "A B C" and not... 1 2 3 and "4" where we are now. And then 5 breaking the upper line?

EW the greatest analysis that makes everyone happy....
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