Elliott Wave Counting with EG | Page 30 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Similar Threads

Automatic Elliott Wave Counting & Analysis 10 replies

Can anyone help me with counting Elliott waves 1 reply

The Basics of Elliott Wave Theory 128 replies

Is there any website show the elliott counting? 8 replies

Elliott Wave Counting DJIA 0 replies

Attachments: Elliott Wave Counting with EG
Exit Attachments

Elliott Wave Counting with EG

  • #581
  • Sep 16, 2007 4:21am Sep 16, 2007 4:21am
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Man, some of those charts looks like an old school nintendo game when it froze up. How the hell do you trade or even understand those charts?
It is a matter of Knowing what you have on your Charts.

1st I use EW for General Direction
2nd I use Andrew's Pitchfork to create Channels and Simulate Support and Resistance Levels
3rd Trendlines are also drawn for Resistance and Support Levels
4th You will see FIB Retracement Tools ( for Wave 2, 4 and B ) and FIB Extention Tools to help Project Levels for Wave 3, 5 and C.

I only Presented it here to show how I do it starting from the monthly down to the lower time frames.

You will not understand the notations on the lower time frame unless you analyze starting from the monthly chart.

EG

PS.

It is all in the mind and probably requires an effort to concentrate.
  • #582
  • Sep 16, 2007 4:31am Sep 16, 2007 4:31am
hye eg your count for GJ and GU looks possible and same with my count
Artist lead and hacks ask for a show of hands.
  • #583
  • Sep 16, 2007 4:40am Sep 16, 2007 4:40am
Quoting al_yaqen
hye eg your count for GJ and GU looks possible and same with my count

Hello al_yaqen.

is your GBPJPY count bearish or Bullish?

I presented 2 scenarios with those bunch of charts. But I am somehow Bearish Biased as many of the MAs that were providing support have been broken.

And the UPSIDE Breakout n the Trendlines which formed a Triangle seemed to have been False as there was a pullback.

With EW alone, I would have to sit it out and stay on the sidelines. But with the help of trendlines and the MAs, I have supplemented my count to support a Bearish Bias.

EG
  • #584
  • Sep 16, 2007 5:17am Sep 16, 2007 5:17am
hye Eg.

this is my counting for GJ H4. i choose bullish ehehe..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy4h.JPG Size: 91 KB
Artist lead and hacks ask for a show of hands.
  • #585
  • Sep 16, 2007 5:40am Sep 16, 2007 5:40am
Quoting al_yaqen
hye Eg.

this is my counting for GJ H4. i choose bullish ehehe..
Ok. Nted your Bullish Bias.

I will only shift to a Bullish bias if price breaksout to the upside of the Blue trendlines I have drawn on my 1hour chart. Another validation for the Bullish Trend would be when Price also crosses to the upside of the MAs on the 4hour chart.

But till then, I will try to maximize the move down and consider it as a retracement. But should it go lower than 228.25, then I have first signal that we are in a Bear trend.

First Target would be 227.55 which is 38.2% as sub wave 1 of the wave 3 of 5 Down.


EG
  • #586
  • Sep 16, 2007 5:55am Sep 16, 2007 5:55am
Quoting el grande
Ok. Nted your Bullish Bias.

I will only shift to a Bullish bias if price breaksout to the upside of the Blue trendlines I have drawn on my 1hour chart. Another validation for the Bullish Trend would be when Price also crosses to the upside of the MAs on the 4hour chart.

But till then, I will try to maximize the move down and consider it as a retracement. But should it go lower than 228.25, then I have first signal that we are in a Bear trend.

First Target would be 227.55 which is 38.2% as sub wave 1 of the wave 3 of 5 Down.


EG

Ooh ok noted, thanks for sharing Eg .. let the market answer all these thing next week
Artist lead and hacks ask for a show of hands.
  • #587
  • Sep 16, 2007 6:56am Sep 16, 2007 6:56am
Here is my EW Count attempt on EURUSD
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 001_monthly_001.gif Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 002_weekly_001.gif Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 003_daily_001.gif Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 004_4h_001.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #588
  • Sep 16, 2007 2:57pm Sep 16, 2007 2:57pm
A Potential Scenario on GBPUSD

Sub Wave 3 of Wave C down is probably developing.

Now @ 2.0066
Possibly retracing to 2.0168 area
Then Coming down to
2.002 FE 261.8
1.9949 FE300.0

Then expect retrace up for C4
2.0047 at least 23.6%
2.0104 most common 38.2%
But could still be higher towards 61.8%

Another point to consider is targetting C4 up towards the end point of sub wave 4 of C3 down which could be in the vicinity of 2.0168.

Textbook info provides that wave 4 ends towards the termination point of the subwave 4 of a prior wave 3.

But let us see how things turn out this week

EG
  • #589
  • Sep 16, 2007 6:46pm Sep 16, 2007 6:46pm
EG,

On Cable, Based on your scenario, do you still believe this is still a larger B wave (A was 1.9657 to 2.0367) and once complete it will head north in 5 waves for C (surpassing 2.0367)?
  • #590
  • Edited 7:12pm Sep 16, 2007 6:52pm | Edited 7:12pm
GBPCHF
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 001_monthly.gif Size: 27 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 002_weekly.gif Size: 35 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 003_daily.gif Size: 29 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 004_4h.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #591
  • Sep 16, 2007 7:08pm Sep 16, 2007 7:08pm
Quoting multiplatnum
EG,

On Cable, Based on your scenario, do you still believe this is still a larger B wave (A was 1.9657 to 2.0367) and once complete it will head north in 5 waves for C (surpassing 2.0367)?

MP...

There might be a mix up here on the Cable.

My chart shows that for the Corrective wave 4 down, this is a Possible Big ABC where
A is from 2.0652 down to 1.9651 on my chart. Then he had the
B going up in 3 small waves which I think ended at 2.0365. From here, I started counting the 5 waves down for the Big Wave C.

Looking at my chart, I think we have finished sub wave 3 of the Wave C down and a retracment is due UP towards 2.0168 on my brokers platform.

Then I see see it continue to fall to finish the Wave C.

So my Wave C is going south while it seems your Wave C is going North...

EG
  • #592
  • Sep 17, 2007 1:09am Sep 17, 2007 1:09am
Hi guys,

Had a great week-end especially watching S.A. hammer England in the world cup rugby...... then again in the T20 cricket..

To the charts.....I agree with EG we are in big C down of ABC (3.3.5). B really took its time going up last week and previous. but I think we have only seen wave 1 of larger C on the daily and I think we will see 275/300 for wave 2 before a big 3 down.

Kind regards.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.JPG Size: 152 KB
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #593
  • Sep 17, 2007 3:24am Sep 17, 2007 3:24am
in my opinion GbpUsd just completed 5 wave structure inside wave (1). ready for retracement wave (2).

just my 120 yen..
Artist lead and hacks ask for a show of hands.
  • #594
  • Sep 17, 2007 11:59am Sep 17, 2007 11:59am
Quoting el grande
A Potential Scenario on GBPUSD

Sub Wave 3 of Wave C down is probably developing.

Now @ 2.0066
Possibly retracing to 2.0168 area Just made a shallow retracement
Then Coming down to
2.002 FE 261.8
1.9949 FE300.0 But exceeded expectation to 1.9914

Then expect retrace up for C4
2.0047 at least 23.6%
2.0104 most common 38.2%
But could still be higher towards 61.8%

Since it has finished C1 down.. targets for C2 UP will be the maximum of 100% Retrace to 2.0365.
Other levels for this are

78.6% 2.0268
61.8% 2.0193 at the minimum

EG
Previous swing of same sub wave degree @ 1.9959 Has been surpassed at 1.9914.

Note that after using the FIB Extention tool to project the Wave 3 and Wave 5, It would seem that we have finished that 5 wave impulse movement beyond the FE 300.00 mark towards 1.9914. Initial targets were only
FE 161.8 at 2.0131
FE 200.0 at 2.0081
FE 261.8 at 1.9999 difference from prev post is bec. of arrow value which I put on the FE Level. Just now I found a better way to get exact price at FE Level
FE 300.0 at 1.9949 as is

So Yes I agree with al yaqen and AP that this is now on a retrace for the actual C2 up.

I stand corrected with my previous post. I should have referred to the targets as the sub waves of C1 down as it was requred to see a 5 wave impulse structure down which must exceed the previous sub wave swing of same wave degree to see a sompleted sub wave 1 or C1.

EG
  • #595
  • Sep 17, 2007 12:40pm Sep 17, 2007 12:40pm
GBPJPY

C2 234.76
C31 231.01
C32 233.28

FE 161.8 227.21 minimum for C33
FE 200.0 225.78
FE 261.8 223.46 minimum for C35
FE 300.0 222.03

I would not worry so much about the C34 retracement as this is in a wave 3 so I would assume it would be shallow. Nonetheless, it would be an opportunity to add to your shorts for the last leg of the trip down.

Setting my TP to 223.50 here so I can go to sleep when I feel like it now since 1:40 am in asia here. That wouild have to be the minimum for the end of C35 or C3.

EG
  • #596
  • Sep 17, 2007 11:35pm Sep 17, 2007 11:35pm
Quoting africanpip
Hi guys,

To the charts.....I agree with EG we are in big C down of ABC (3.3.5). B really took its time going up last week and previous. but I think we have only seen wave 1 of larger C on the daily and I think we will see 275/300 for wave 2 before a big 3 down.

Kind regards.
al_yaqen

in my opinion GbpUsd just completed 5 wave structure inside wave (1). ready for retracement wave (2).

just my 120 yen..


Alrighty then..............maybe not...... ....but if this is wave 1 of larger C down then C is going to go down, way down.
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #597
  • Sep 17, 2007 11:44pm Sep 17, 2007 11:44pm
Hey fellow EWTs.. Could you check my newest thread and help me out? Thanks :-D
  • #598
  • Sep 18, 2007 8:08pm Sep 18, 2007 8:08pm
GBPUSD

Looks like the Wave 2 UP is working out. With the interest rate news this morning, this sure played out well with my count.

But quite disappointing is my GBPJPY count. I sure took a hit on this one.
I was doing well till yesterday's asian afternon or London morning.

Then I made a mistake of entering 2 short trades at intervals before the london Open. Left a Sell order at 230 too.

I was able to cancel my Limit Sell Order before the US Open Luckily. but I decided to increase the SL on my Existing Short orders expecting that if the rates are cut GBPJPY goes up bt will still come down again.

But then again with this pair, it can move 100 to almost 1000 pips in either direction before it will reverse again. So at 11m Asin timeI decided to close all trades at a loss and wait till asian time again to decide to trade or not.

Attached is the potential alternative counts for GBPJPY.

EG

PS. I know I have often said that EW can be used to trade without listening to the news. Well, I must admit now that with all the probabilities of alternative counts in the EW Theory, Fundamentals ( and that is NEWS ) surely does play a big Part as to the direction Price will take.

I am now thinking that I should reduce my trades at the very minimum when trading EW during important News specially if trading GBPJPY which is to volatile (Otherwise I will need to have more than a thousand pips SL just so I could either delay the brutal effect or allow it to recover)

But, probably the best is to stay out of the news as many seasoned traders do.

That would be more relaxing. There will always be opportunities to trade after the news when things settle down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 091907_001.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #599
  • Sep 19, 2007 12:15pm Sep 19, 2007 12:15pm
Current situation in GbpJpy...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpydaily.JPG Size: 106 KB
Artist lead and hacks ask for a show of hands.
  • #600
  • Edited 10:48pm Sep 19, 2007 10:35pm | Edited 10:48pm
Thanks al yaqen for providing your GBPJPY Charts here.

We may not have the same counts , but it is good to be able to present EW Counts from various perspectives.

Based on my count from Daily to lower TFs, GBPJPY to me still could be either Bearish or Bullish in the longer term. It still has not broken above 235.50 to convince me it is Bullish and that is why I still can not be sure about its being Bearish from there.

I would be more Bearish biased though only because,

Wave 2 UP was moving side ways while what I considered as Wave 4 is a sharp Zigzag ( Rule of Alternation )

Then using Fibonacci Extention Tools, End of Wave 3 @ 219.31 falls between the 161.8 - 200% Level which fits projection for Wave 3.

Looking at the Andrews Pitchfork too, you will see that price has fallen below the Pitchforkmost likely leading to a further fall.

The Sideways movement from the end of my Wave 4 I would attribute now to a Wave 51 down and the wave 52 sideways movement.

Wave 52b is at 228.25 while the lowest on the right side is 228.20. If I can find a finished 5 part impulse wave on this one, then I can look at it as wave 531 while the spike Up due to the US Interest News could be considered as Wave 532. However, I still can not see the end of this 532 up to now.

So currently, I am trading both ways. Still have 2 opposing trades which are both on the negative side. may not necessarily leave me with positive pips in the end. But at least, losses will hopefully be less and still allow me to trade both ways for now.

EG

PS. Sorry I missed to attach the 1 hour chart
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 002_daily.gif Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 004_4h.gif Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 005_1h.gif Size: 35 KB
8 traders viewing now