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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #31,241
  • Sep 18, 2007 8:42am Sep 18, 2007 8:42am
anybody have an idea what is going to happen if fed cut rate 25bp/50bp or leave the rate unchanged?
  • #31,242
  • Sep 18, 2007 8:50am Sep 18, 2007 8:50am
Quoting extrarm
anybody have an idea what is going to happen if fed cut rate 25bp/50bp or leave the rate unchanged?
The market will still be there, people will still be trading currency and those at the wrong side get their stop loss eaten

Yeah that means no doomsday yet no matter the decision
  • #31,243
  • Sep 18, 2007 8:51am Sep 18, 2007 8:51am
Quoting extrarm
anybody have an idea what is going to happen if fed cut rate 25bp/50bp or leave the rate unchanged?
I have ideas about what could happen in each case. But the best strategy, imo, is staying out in the first 15-30minutes for the dust to settle while getting familiar with the statement and commentaries.

It will be the statement that will be under scrutiny here if Fed cuts.
  • #31,244
  • Sep 18, 2007 8:51am Sep 18, 2007 8:51am
Quote
heck, cutting rates wouldn't really help in the first place

bottom line said right, plz send this to Bernanke

Hello World!
  • #31,245
  • Sep 18, 2007 8:54am Sep 18, 2007 8:54am
I need some help. I want to short Cable and Euro, what is in your opinion if Fed cuts 0.25% and issues confusing statement effect will be on these pairs? I know that market may act contrary to logic, but what is the logical outcome?
  • #31,246
  • Sep 18, 2007 8:58am Sep 18, 2007 8:58am
Quoting cesarnc
I have ideas about what could happen in each case. But the best strategy, imo, is staying out in the first 15-30minutes for the dust to settle while getting familiar with the statement and commentaries.

It will be the statement that will be under scrutiny here if Fed cuts.
Ben always hawkish in the past few meeting. This should be tricky
  • #31,247
  • Sep 18, 2007 9:01am Sep 18, 2007 9:01am
Quoting extrarm
Ben always hawkish in the past few meeting. This should be tricky
Well, if he comes with his usual "inflation" B.S. right after moderated inflation data (last few), the best trade is short "Fed's credibility index"....
  • #31,248
  • Sep 18, 2007 9:03am Sep 18, 2007 9:03am
Quoting ClockTrader
bottom line said right, plz send this to Bernanke

I just have this niggling feeling he might do just that.. lol..
  • #31,249
  • Sep 18, 2007 9:04am Sep 18, 2007 9:04am
Quoting dramapips
I need some help. I want to short Cable and Euro, what is in your opinion if Fed cuts 0.25% and issues confusing statement effect will be on these pairs? I know that market may act contrary to logic, but what is the logical outcome?
i will se a lot off pips, no matter if they cut them or hold, or raise them...
its just money
  • #31,250
  • Sep 18, 2007 9:06am Sep 18, 2007 9:06am
Quoting dramapips
I need some help. I want to short Cable and Euro, what is in your opinion if Fed cuts 0.25% and issues confusing statement effect will be on these pairs? I know that market may act contrary to logic, but what is the logical outcome?
25bps cut equity markets rally a little (100% priced in)
50bps cut equity markets rally quite a lot (probably 30% to 50% priced in)

status quo. equity markets crash, carry trades unwind, dollar gain and you say "show me the money!"
  • #31,251
  • Sep 18, 2007 9:09am Sep 18, 2007 9:09am
Quote
I just have this niggling feeling he might do just that.. lol..

yea, if they have any discipline left in them
if they have any wisdom left in them

they got several other efforts to make in order to make the economy past this crisis, stand against odds.

cutting rate is apparently not the solution.

Ideally, they should work hard in other areas and when they fructify, when US Lenders like countrywide need not look at foreign lenders for financing.

THEN WOULD be the right time to cut the rates.
Hello World!
  • #31,252
  • Sep 18, 2007 9:14am Sep 18, 2007 9:14am
Quoting ClockTrader
yea, if they have any discipline left in them
if they have any wisdom left in them

they got several other efforts to make in order to make the economy past this crisis, stand against odds.

cutting rate is apparently not the solution.

Ideally, they should work hard in other areas and when they fructify, when US Lenders like countrywide need not look at foreign lenders for financing.

THEN WOULD be the right time to cut the rates.
Excellent point made. Markets are just paying too much attention to the Fed and adding pressure, Alan Greenspan made an excellent point on the rationale of being ambiguous. The US economy is on tettering on a full blown recession and I feel that unnecessary rate cut would only hasten the process.
  • #31,253
  • Sep 18, 2007 9:15am Sep 18, 2007 9:15am
CNBC just said that there is a 10% chance that the Fed might do nothing
  • #31,254
  • Sep 18, 2007 9:16am Sep 18, 2007 9:16am
Quoting de123
i will se a lot off pips, no matter if they cut them or hold, or raise them...
I shorted cable at 1.9985 but it feels eerie.

I feel there is something that I don't feel
  • #31,255
  • Sep 18, 2007 9:16am Sep 18, 2007 9:16am
Quoting matouya
Can anyone advice me what to do? I got long @ 2.0150. Should I get out now or what?
I'll tell you what not to do. Don't listen to what someone else tell you what to do especially when someone tells you to have patience, if you can, when you are down 200 pips.

I think you realize you are down bigtime and know what you should do. But you are wanting someone to tell you to stay in the trade. Only you (and your account size) can decide whether to do that or not.
  • #31,256
  • Sep 18, 2007 9:18am Sep 18, 2007 9:18am
Quoting dramapips
I shorted cable at 1.9985 but it feels eerie.

I feel there is something that I don't feel
i dont know what eerie means,...use sl,..your broker might freeze, and all u will see is my profit...:
its just money
  • #31,257
  • Sep 18, 2007 9:19am Sep 18, 2007 9:19am
This is my take for today

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  • #31,258
  • Sep 18, 2007 9:23am Sep 18, 2007 9:23am
Quoting SunTrader
Don't listen to what someone else tell you what to do.
The best advice you'll ever get.


Quoting Luffy
CNBC just said that there is a 10% chance that the Fed might do nothing
so that if that happens, they can say that did expect that.. lol.. even if its 10%
  • #31,259
  • Sep 18, 2007 9:42am Sep 18, 2007 9:42am
Quoting Luffy
Look before you leap, look clearly at what the chart is telling youuuu.

*cough* look at gold *cough*
Get some cough medicine. Gold is in a new bull phase. Not today but keep watching.
  • #31,260
  • Sep 18, 2007 9:54am Sep 18, 2007 9:54am
Quoting SunTrader
Get some cough medicine. Gold is in a new bull phase. Not today but keep watching.
I would agree that gold is going into a new bull phase, but not now, not until they fall first. The only reason gold might be in a bull phase now is if there is a war. And i mean a war that has started, not just talks of war. Again that is just what I think. Everyone has their own opinions.

If gold flies to $1000 tomorrow and I am not on it, so be it. I'm into risk management, not greed management on my trades. And the risk for me is too big to buy gold now.
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