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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #31,041
  • Sep 17, 2007 4:53pm Sep 17, 2007 4:53pm
Quoting santoso
the old weekly chart trendlines are still the same as the current weekly chart trendlines.
I updated my post #31052. It may be the head and shoulder chart pattern.
What you meant was "weekly trend, lower channel" not "weekly down trend channel"

I get it.
  • #31,042
  • Sep 17, 2007 5:01pm Sep 17, 2007 5:01pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Warper
What you meant was "weekly trend, lower channel" not "weekly down trend channel"

I get it.
Add to that the monthy's and there is no reason why we shouldn't expect this to make 1.8900.

i'm no good at fundi's so don't now what caused the drop in 2005, but hey we can trade it, just makes my life easier, if it's only going one way.
  • #31,043
  • Sep 17, 2007 5:02pm Sep 17, 2007 5:02pm
Quoting Warper
Lets face it... its impossible to a french person scare anyone with their talk.


"Je vais manger un croissant. Oui?"

Common...
I dunno man - I was pretty scared last time I was in France and the local villager said 'Je ne te donnerai plus de vin!' :
Cable is my sugardaddy
  • #31,044
  • Sep 17, 2007 5:03pm Sep 17, 2007 5:03pm
Quoting bohogirl
I was thinking about this, and can't wrap my mind around a 'what if' thing:

Say, theoretically, all things fall apart in the US and UK (as in, what's happening now is just the beginning of greater crisis).
That would weaken US and GBP against other currencies, logically.
But what would that do to our cable?
In other words, if, by some chance, both currencies tanked globally, and were pretty much worthless, would the exchange rate between the two still remain somewhat the same, affected by which one is less worthless?
And if so, would that even make any difference to us as traders? (I mean, if we were trading a generally worthless pair, would the value of pips remain the same or go down?)

Maybe I should stop thinking and go back to bed - feeling a little under the weather today, and all this thinking is hurting my little brain.
All good questions bohogirl. I wish I had the answer. If I did I'd let you in on it and we could both make a bundle. I can't speak for sterling but I do know that with all the debt the US has floating, it would be in the interest of everyone NOT to let the $ crash. And with all the economies of the world based on exports to the US, a recession here is bad news for everybody. But, every once in a while, we need an economic mess to shake things up and get everybody focused again.
  • #31,045
  • Sep 17, 2007 5:08pm Sep 17, 2007 5:08pm
Looking at the bigger picture, it's hard to be anything but bearish about the british pound and U.S dollar right now (and equally hard not to be bullish on gold & oil, obviously). However, to predict how the dollar will move over the next 24 hours feels like just guessing or plain gambling.

So, I'm currently long EURGBP. The R:R ratio is not so great, but probability seems high. But if you put a shotgun to my head, I guess I would enter a short order on cable.

cesarnc & pinchapip: Funny pictures, great!
  • #31,046
  • Sep 17, 2007 5:08pm Sep 17, 2007 5:08pm
Quoting lexazver
This is turning out to be quite a year, OIL record high, GOLD record high ( almost, may go higher) , EURO, POUND,CAD,YEN crosses trading at record levels, subprime crisis, bank run, foot and mouth, record temperatures around the world, wettest summer in UKs history ( or close), pavaroti died.

I guess big a$$ meteor is next...

EDIT : overpopulation is to blame (what i think anyway)
Don't forget one of the driest years in modern Cali history, and record heat!

It's totally off-topic, but I've been reading this blessingscornucopia.com thingy about the 'coming changes', and let me tell you, I haven't been so amused in a long time. I know a person who actually fully believes all of it, including the removal of Bush Administration from office between Sept. 16 and 19 - yes, this year! I'm just wondering what will happen to all of it come Thursday morning, with Bush still in office
Cable is my sugardaddy
  • #31,047
  • Sep 17, 2007 5:18pm Sep 17, 2007 5:18pm
Bush administration will leave the biggest impact depression to democrat party next year 2008.

So the Fed doesn't quickly cut the interest rate. If the Fed quickly cut the interest rate, what other ammunitions the Fed will have? Almost no other choices.

Increase the tax and increase the government spending will be impossible for the depression era.

Besides the dow jones index is above 13,000 (average). Now is 13,400.
  • #31,048
  • Sep 17, 2007 5:20pm Sep 17, 2007 5:20pm
Quoting coolhand
All good questions bohogirl. I wish I had the answer. If I did I'd let you in on it and we could both make a bundle. I can't speak for sterling but I do know that with all the debt the US has floating, it would be in the interest of everyone NOT to let the $ crash. And with all the economies of the world based on exports to the US, a recession here is bad news for everybody. But, every once in a while, we need an economic mess to shake things up and get everybody focused again.
Very true!
I didn't realize just how much US/$ crisis affected everyone else, until this weekend and Northern Rock (I'm fairly new to Forex, and really basically play charts, so I haven't given the 'global' thing much thought until recently). All I really knew is that something's got to give, at least in Cali.

What I was really thinking is that logically, even if both currencies 'crashed' against others, the exchange rate between the two would still remain a constant, based on which one is doing 'better', so it shouldn't really make much of a difference to cable traders.
But then I got to thinking about trading a 'worthless' pair and pip value, and would it even be worth it. I.e., if you could trade Iraqi Dinars vs. Mexican Pesos, would you be able to make money or would gains be really insignificant. So, if by some miracle, a big a$$ asteroid hit both US and UK and the two became equivalent of Dinars and Pesos, would we still be able to make money trading the pair?

Ugh, yeah, I know, idle minds... I might need to go check my temperature because even I realize this train of thought is ridiculous... but then again, 1929-like lines were never going to happen again, right?
Cable is my sugardaddy
  • #31,049
  • Sep 17, 2007 5:20pm Sep 17, 2007 5:20pm
Quoting bohogirl
In other words, if, by some chance, both currencies tanked globally, and were pretty much worthless, would the exchange rate between the two still remain somewhat the same, affected by which one is less worthless?
And if so, would that even make any difference to us as traders? (I mean, if we were trading a generally worthless pair, would the value of pips remain the same or go down?)
If both USD and GBP approaches worthlessness, you will probably see a lot of very nasty volatility in cable without any long time direction.
  • #31,050
  • Sep 17, 2007 5:21pm Sep 17, 2007 5:21pm
Quoting lexazver
I guess big a$$ meteor is next...
I wouldn't mind for one if i had 80 Years old. I always liked a good fireworks show.

http://www.cherrycoloured.com/wordpr.../meteorite.jpg


Quoting bohogirl
That would weaken US and GBP against other currencies, logically.
But what would that do to our cable?
Weekly chart sideways...

Something like this, for years. Untradable without conservative targets.

Pray for this not to happen.

http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/8...shot001ry1.jpg

Quoting alabama
7. Despite the woes, someone smells a bargain. UK billionaire Joseph Lewis just took a very significant chunk of Bear Stearns - the epicenter of the sub-prime mess on Wall Street.

I'm glad to know that someone more wiser than me, has a vision above panic.

Quoting MPP
i'm no good at fundi's so don't now what caused the drop in 2005, but hey we can trade it, just makes my life easier, if it's only going one way.


I hope this awnser your doubt.

http://img403.imageshack.us/img403/1...shot002wc0.jpg

Compare with...

http://media3.washingtonpost.com/wp-...6063000053.gif

What is your conclusion?

Add to this, bad news from Euro economy at that point.

Compare to actual times and take more conclusions.
  • #31,051
  • Sep 17, 2007 5:31pm Sep 17, 2007 5:31pm
Aha!
Move over GBP, move over Euro, everyone, just get out of the way, and lets all welcome the AMERO!
Cable is my sugardaddy
  • #31,052
  • Sep 17, 2007 5:39pm Sep 17, 2007 5:39pm
Ok, one more, and then I'll be quiet, I promise!

Has anyone seen/heard of this:

Massive Wall Street Put Options Signal Upcoming Terror Attack

The source is dubious at best, but I've heard it whispered about in other circles (stocks and options), increasingly so in the last few days, and in light of recent developments all around, it sure makes me go hmmmmmm.
(there was also a teeny-bit better source a few days ago, from yahoo financials, but I seem to have misplaced the bookmark)

Any thoughts?
Cable is my sugardaddy
  • #31,053
  • Sep 17, 2007 5:42pm Sep 17, 2007 5:42pm
This could just be a bump along the road for cable..I dont think the long term uptrend is over yet.
  • #31,054
  • Sep 17, 2007 6:06pm Sep 17, 2007 6:06pm
Quoting lexazver
This is turning out to be quite a year, OIL record high, GOLD record high ( almost, may go higher) , EURO, POUND,CAD,YEN crosses trading at record levels, subprime crisis, bank run, foot and mouth, record temperatures around the world, wettest summer in UKs history ( or close), pavaroti died.

I guess big a$$ meteor is next...

EDIT : overpopulation is to blame (what i think anyway)
My adds:

Piggyney Spears
OJ back to jail
I guy name "Petraeus" comes around to convince everybody he's not "betraying" anyone.

Indeed, a year to be remembered.
  • #31,055
  • Sep 17, 2007 6:26pm Sep 17, 2007 6:26pm
Before going long cable must touch 1.9895. But i can we will have another crazy week!
Kiyoski JR. "Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy."
  • #31,056
  • Sep 17, 2007 6:41pm Sep 17, 2007 6:41pm
Quoting Kiyosaki JR
Before going long cable must touch 1.9895. But i can we will have another crazy week!

i dont think anyone should be going long....my system is still telling me of another drop in store....not just that but the dollar tomorrow should be volantile....a rate cut of .25; should help the dollar if it comes with some supportive fed words..... and now with the developing crisis on the cable we could see the pair head below 9700 by the end of the week....

but on the other hand last week i was shooting for 2.400+ my system was telling me to short the .300 and i didnt pay any attention to it....as a result i had one of the worse week in a long time....thank to god im making it better this week........
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #31,057
  • Sep 17, 2007 7:15pm Sep 17, 2007 7:15pm
Quoting Kiyosaki JR
Before going long cable must touch 1.9895. But i can we will have another crazy week!
What is your sign for going long
  • #31,058
  • Sep 17, 2007 7:18pm Sep 17, 2007 7:18pm
More banks may need bail-outs as Northern Rock crisis affects Alliance & Leicester


could this mean that there may be some more banks popping out soon....:surprised

and what about the housing market...??????
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #31,059
  • Sep 17, 2007 7:24pm Sep 17, 2007 7:24pm
Quoting pino2
What is your sign for going long
If cable bounce at 9895, and if price open above 25ema on 30min chart then i will go long.
Kiyoski JR. "Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy."
  • #31,060
  • Sep 17, 2007 7:31pm Sep 17, 2007 7:31pm
Just what gbp needed today - New foot and mouth cases suspected in South England

poor little sheep


(and on a lighter note, for the longest time, I thought it was a joke - you know, as in 'foot/mouth disease' that I, for one, suffer from regularly )
Cable is my sugardaddy
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