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Daily PIN Bars

  • #101
  • Sep 14, 2007 4:26pm Sep 14, 2007 4:26pm
Quoting J2FcM
first - thanks BeachBum, I will print and read tonight.

So - now I'm stuck for today\Saturday in the GBP\JPY trade... Any thoughts or reconsiderations to take in? At one point I was up 100 pips, but now the market closed at +7.
I suppose its a bit of a mental game with confidence and reconsideration mixed with experience eh???

I'm not used to being in the market when it opens Sunday...
*just my at work thoughts as I decide if I want to lower my take-profit*
This is NOT a criticism: But why would you not take a 100 pip profit on a Friday? That's why this pair is often referred to as "The Dragon".
  • #102
  • Sep 14, 2007 4:41pm Sep 14, 2007 4:41pm
Well here is your answer -

1 - Not enough experience to tell what is "a good amount of pips in a day trade".

2 - I was asleep; and I am not familiar enough with my demos on Oanda, MT4, and FXCM (ick) to know how to setup something where profits are incrementally taken automatically.

I will spend with Oanda and MT4 to see what I can do to accomplish my 2nd problem.
To be honest, I still have to cover platforms, brokers, and money management a lot... I figured with my demo's I could at least hop in and see proof of being able to make consistant profit first... before tackling those other aspects --> I've seen proof, and now is the point to evaluate the other things I missed.

Ideally, with my limited experience now this is how I would've played this trade were this within my capabilities;

Once 50 pips was reached, close 1/4 the position and move stop to BE.
Once 100 pips reached close 1/4 - 2/4 the position.
Turn to trailing stop and let the last 1/4 - 2/4 of the position do what it wants (it would be FREE TRADE at this point, right?)

^but as already mentioned - unfamiliar with platforms + sleeping = not happening^

May I request an criticism or advice on the above italicized?





*edit* and plz don't worry about criticism... I am very open to being criticized... if I do something that is in your opinion stupid, or in fact self-destructive I'd rather have it smacked in my face bluntly so I can re-evaluate myself, and compare your opinion to my own views. so - brutal vs polite --> I ask for brutal; you guys are the experts(or at least the veterans).
"Please sir, may I have some more pips?"
  • #103
  • Sep 14, 2007 4:42pm Sep 14, 2007 4:42pm
Here's something stressed by Fozzy-style trader pf1966:

The fib from the last low on this Daily to the tip of the PB shows retracement of almost 50%. Today's open was only about 20 pips above that 50.0 Fib level; reasonable expectation would be for the price to drop to the 61.8 level, which it did plus about 60 pips. This trader taught me these types of trades are high rish, low potential reward because the price does not have very far to travel before reaching a significant Fib level. Also, look at the Fozzy indicator for the last three days. A few things to consider.........
Attached Image
  • #104
  • Sep 14, 2007 4:54pm Sep 14, 2007 4:54pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
But even you said you liked this PB !! I agree somewhat in traffic, but still looked OK to me... lets see if it breaks the fib line and gets down at least to the 365 ema
My bad Tiki,

Got Confused by your entry price when i looked at my chart i couldn't understand how you got in so i looked at the 4hr hour and saw a bad PB and thought you must of enter of that. I simply forgot your chart is 2 hrs in front of me.

Ademac
  • #105
  • Sep 14, 2007 5:08pm Sep 14, 2007 5:08pm
Well, for consolation... I see we end gbp/jpy weekly with a DBHLC... This gives me a little more faith that the PB trade may pan out.

BeachBum... Yes I agree hitting fib line or some other wall soon ( 365 ema ) but my R/R is about 1-1... and I am only risking 1% of my account... that is all I can afford since my experience still keeps me barely at break even...
  • #106
  • Sep 14, 2007 6:43pm Sep 14, 2007 6:43pm
I see a DL... no LC
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Weekly.doc   388 KB | 396 downloads
"Please sir, may I have some more pips?"
  • #107
  • Sep 14, 2007 8:18pm Sep 14, 2007 8:18pm
Yeah right now I agree with you... but yesterday I had not looked at fozzy in regards to this trade... and when you are starving for Pin Bars... it is easy to find a reason to trade one not in such a good position... which is why you are a much better trader than I !!!!!! Although I think this one may work out for a few pips...


Quoting BeachBum
Here's something stressed by Fozzy-style trader pf1966:

The fib from the last low on this Daily to the tip of the PB shows retracement of almost 50%. Today's open was only about 20 pips above that 50.0 Fib level; reasonable expectation would be for the price to drop to the 61.8 level, which it did plus about 60 pips. This trader taught me these types of trades are high rish, low potential reward because the price does not have very far to travel before reaching a significant Fib level. Also, look at the Fozzy indicator for the last three days. A few things to consider.........
  • #108
  • Sep 15, 2007 2:12am Sep 15, 2007 2:12am
I am shooting for 50 pips now.
I am confident in the stop I placed above the pin; because it has been the resistance for a few weeks at least... this is the 3rd or 4th bounce off that area.
"Please sir, may I have some more pips?"
  • #109
  • Sep 16, 2007 2:09am Sep 16, 2007 2:09am
Quoting BeachBum
Initially it was my intention to only discuss PBs and a Fozzy-style indicator, but I have since decided to show how I use the basic 8 over 8 Fozzy indicator with other PA indicators.
BeachBum, your post #95 was one of the most enlightening and useful I have ever read on FF, thanks a lot! I printed it and put it and put the cahrt on the wall as a reminder.

Now, if you only could expand a bit how you calculated the exit targets... I have really an hard time in keeping a trade open more that the day of the signal, since very often it means bearing some heavy retracement.

Often I use conservatively the very first S/R level, but so doing I get just a very small piece of the pie, waaay less of what you are getting. How to get the confidence to stay in till a bigger level?

TIA
  • #110
  • Sep 16, 2007 6:02pm Sep 16, 2007 6:02pm
woo woo - GBP\JPY hath not forsaken meh
"Please sir, may I have some more pips?"
  • #111
  • Sep 16, 2007 8:13pm Sep 16, 2007 8:13pm
Quoting Triton18
Now, if you only could expand a bit how you calculated the exit targets... I have really an hard time in keeping a trade open more that the day of the signal, since very often it means bearing some heavy retracement.
You need to build confidence in what ever exit strategy you use. So you should demo your trading approach until you can follow it profitably for three months. Then you will have the confidence to follow it live even when you get a big retracement.

Quoting Triton18
Often I use conservatively the very first S/R level, but so doing I get just a very small piece of the pie, waaay less of what you are getting. How to get the confidence to stay in till a bigger level?
TIA
I cant tell you what will work for you but i can tell you what works for me. I simply move my stop loss once a day to 10 pips below/above the high/low and then i just wait till i get stopped out.

Enjoy
Ademac
  • #112
  • Sep 17, 2007 7:10am Sep 17, 2007 7:10am
Quoting Triton18
BeachBum, your post #95 was one of the most enlightening and useful I have ever read on FF, thanks a lot! I printed it and put it and put the cahrt on the wall as a reminder.

Now, if you only could expand a bit how you calculated the exit targets... I have really an hard time in keeping a trade open more that the day of the signal, since very often it means bearing some heavy retracement.

Often I use conservatively the very first S/R level, but so doing I get just a very small piece of the pie, waaay less of what you are getting. How to get the confidence to stay in till a bigger level?

TIA
Hello Triton.........thanks for the kind words!

Confidence takes time and 'seasoning'; I wish I could help you directly with this, but you'll have to develop that on your own.

But I can make a few suggestions about T/P and S/L levels. I do A LOT of backtesting as well as continued updating. I have applied my method to every pair I trade, looked back at least two years and then created a list of hard numbers for each pair. I examined every trade signal to determine what size S/L I need to stay in ALL profitable trades. Then a list of potential profit points; minimum and maximum. From that I can establish several T/P points for each trade; as soon as T/P #1 is reached, all other lots on that trade are moved to B/E and scaled out using my "hard number" list AND a few other indicators. Recently I have started using Fib retracements to more accurately decide how much profit I can expect as well as the location of well established S & R levels. Price action can help with exit decisions; but as always, experience will help you with this. HTH!
  • #113
  • Sep 17, 2007 3:23pm Sep 17, 2007 3:23pm
Hit my first profit target at 365 ema, off last Thursdays daily PB. Collected about 190 pips... now moving second position Stop to break even... second profit target 227.00 and considering to just let it ride and move my stop each day until stopping out... I'm hearing about carry trades unwinding some more this week... maybe good for some more pips on this one.
Attached Image
  • #114
  • Sep 17, 2007 3:28pm Sep 17, 2007 3:28pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Hit my first profit target at 365 ema, off last Thursdays daily PB. Collected about 190 pips... now moving second position Stop to break even... second profit target 227.00 and considering to just let it ride and move my stop each day until stopping out... I'm hearing about carry trades unwinding some more this week... maybe good for some more pips on this one.
Im in with you on that one, my friend. I am looking to see 227 and then retracement. After that, hopefully more downward momentum will be seen. Good luck in your trades.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #115
  • Sep 17, 2007 4:15pm Sep 17, 2007 4:15pm
I was with you guys from last thursday, but due to inexperience & lacking nerve I got out before the big move today for only 47 pips. Oh well back to the pf to keep learning all that i dont know.
  • #116
  • Sep 24, 2007 7:11pm Sep 24, 2007 7:11pm
Well it has been a while since the last good PB had appeared but it has been worth the wait.

Today there is a lovely looking PB on the daily GBP/USD ChartThings that it has going for it.

  1. Swing High
  2. 35% Rule
  3. Headed away from the downward TL.
  4. Mike 1# bar formation

Just checked my Sell stop and it has already taken me into the trade.

I am also still riding on the coat tails of the EUR/USD with two trades.
EUR/USD 1D +425 pips or +4.94% locked in
EUR/USD 4HR +188 pips or +4% locked in

Enjoy
Ademac

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp-usd.gif Size: 10 KB
  • #117
  • Sep 24, 2007 7:47pm Sep 24, 2007 7:47pm
Daily PB... 150 ema target...??? Sweet if it gets there !!!! Oh my... did ademac already post this ??? Well two pins are better than one I always say...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #118
  • Sep 25, 2007 2:41pm Sep 25, 2007 2:41pm
Thanks a lot to all those gave me advices (for some reason I am having troubles with FF in replying, and I am waiting for administrators help).

Indeed at some extent my difficulties are due as well to my old heart of scalper http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif (I started with futures and continuing to scalp in a second account).

I am waiting now for an A signal where test myself...





Quoting BeachBum
Hello Triton.........thanks for the kind words!

Confidence takes time and 'seasoning'; I wish I could help you directly with this, but you'll have to develop that on your own.

But I can make a few suggestions about T/P and S/L levels. I do A LOT of backtesting as well as continued updating. I have applied my method to every pair I trade, looked back at least two years and then created a list of hard numbers for each pair. I examined every trade signal to determine what size S/L I need to stay in ALL profitable trades. Then a list of potential profit points; minimum and maximum. From that I can establish several T/P points for each trade; as soon as T/P #1 is reached, all other lots on that trade are moved to B/E and scaled out using my "hard number" list AND a few other indicators. Recently I have started using Fib retracements to more accurately decide how much profit I can expect as well as the location of well established S & R levels. Price action can help with exit decisions; but as always, experience will help you with this. HTH!
  • #119
  • Sep 25, 2007 3:03pm Sep 25, 2007 3:03pm
[IMG]file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Administrator/Desktop/Catture/ScreenHunter_586.jpg[/IMG]Just an head up to consider: in USDCAD an interesting signal could be in the developing process.
Attached Image
  • #120
  • Sep 25, 2007 3:35pm Sep 25, 2007 3:35pm
Quoting Triton18
[IMG]file:///C:/Documents%20and%20Settings/Administrator/Desktop/Catture/ScreenHunter_586.jpg[/IMG]Just an head up to consider: in USDCAD an interesting signal could be in the developing process.
FWIW...........this pair has kicked my butt more times than I care to remember. IF you want to take this trade, play it conservatively:
S/L = 0.9950
Take profit at a 1:1 RR on the first lot and then move to B/E.
The 4 hour Fozzy chart is just OK for this trade.
Bail early if it stalls.

Of course, all this is on a DEMO account for you............

PS...........cool green in the foreground of your chart, kinda 'art-deco' style!
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