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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #30,981
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:03pm Sep 17, 2007 2:03pm
Quoting pinchapip
But that's open for debate !!!!!!
no, take a history course.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #30,982
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:07pm Sep 17, 2007 2:07pm
Quoting cesarnc
OK, time to get really serious here...

Tomora's Fed's rate statement

There are 3 scenarios.

1. Stock market rally on rate cut (0.5%?) + statement
Best trades long EURUSD, EURJPY, USDJPY
AUD and NZD pairs, too?
GBPUSD not advised due to last developments in UK?

2. Stock market selloff on rate cut (0.25% / no-cut) + statement
Best trades short EURJPY, USDJPY
GBPUSD is a possibility, since cable is weak already. I don't think there will be buyers around in this scenario.... But cable may be sold out already (last 1.9950)

3. Stock market bumping on rate cut (0.25%??) + confusing statement
In this case I think the best trade is staying out (for the week?)

Ok for what it's worth, my view is more simple and i will describe it considering the options.

Option 1 (0.5%).... Long Eur/Usd without messing with the stock market.

Everybody has been hearing everyday, "well what if they think this and that... because 0.5 is incredible..."

Why trade a stupid market like US stock market in this case?

and a fact..... whatever happens to the rates, the stock market falls in confirmed recession times. I'm will only enter on the next day depending on the opening.

Option 2(no cut).... Short Gbp/Jpy (I'm sure GU will help considering that oversold or not, GU already saw bigger falls (daily based) in his history and droping more 150 pips until reachs the trend line is nothing unbelievable)

Option 3(0.25) wait for a brief sell off on Usd/Jpy, Buy on the Dip after a solid rebound against a Fib line.



Now, the GBP case in this scenarios. I think that the only thing that can reverse this pair, is a dovish statement from BoE. Technically we might have seen a considerable lower major top but that's one third of a reversal criteria. Another third is breaking the trend line after that lower top (this would look like an impulsive drop triggering the rest)

So, what we are seeing is profit taking from the big money on Gbp and shorting from tech traders. But we will only see shorting from the big money after the minutes on Wednesday.


Conclusion... what does this mean for Gbp in tomorrows circus?

For me it will depend on the morning new.

If CPI goes higher above 2, i will wait until the Fed and i will go long on a 0.5 cut, with low leverage, low risk, only adding around 2.0060/90 depending on the time passed. If the CPI remains soft, i will stay out only entering around that area if reached after the minutes.
  • #30,983
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:09pm Sep 17, 2007 2:09pm
Quoting Luffy
There will be a cut no doubt, but how it affects the markets would be another thing. As I said, I would not be surprised if a cut actually makes the dollar rally. But maybe that is just me.
no thats not just u, and i wouldnt be suprised if they raised them, and that would be dollar bearish,...so u and i actually agree on some things, but expect the oposite news....so we agree to disagree...
its just money
  • #30,984
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:11pm Sep 17, 2007 2:11pm
Quoting Luffy
There will be a cut no doubt, but how it affects the markets would be another thing. As I said, I would not be surprised if a cut actually makes the dollar rally. But maybe that is just me.
I wouldn't be surprised either. As I agree with you that some major reversal in cable's trend could be cooking.

But GBP can reverse its trend without prompting a dollar trend reversal

A few more posts and we will get to the conclusion we are thinking the same shit here / different approaches.
  • #30,985
  • Edited 2:26pm Sep 17, 2007 2:11pm | Edited 2:26pm
Quoting de123
fed and us troops...but ill be probably wrong, and they will cut them...
US will always have a base in Iraq because the Iraqi Government will 'ask' for it... US government will 'reluctantly' agree. any Iraqi politician not voting for this will lose his guaranteed retirement safe home in Arizona...

There will be a US base in Iraq (like Kuwait) when I die - and I hope to live a lot longer yet...there are two of em within 30 miles of where I am sat right now ! The two most important in the world.

So there will be no pop from total withdrawal.
  • #30,986
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:12pm Sep 17, 2007 2:12pm
Quoting de123
no thats not just u, and i wouldnt be suprised if they raised them, and that would be dollar bearish,...so u and i actually agree on some things, but expect the oposite news....so we agree to disagree...
So you're actually expecting them to raise
Well anything can happen, raising rates is possible, but the effects can be disastrous to the markets
But I like your thinking
  • #30,987
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:13pm Sep 17, 2007 2:13pm
Sterling bear trend? I agree, been short since 2.0280 from last week and still looking for more downside to come.

Quoting Luffy
I wont argue with Euro as currently there is still no sign of Euro bearishness yet, but it might all change tomorrow, as we are in a very critical point in both the Euro and Dollar index charts. Sure Euro might propel up into 1.3950+ territory but it might not last long.
The most important thing when it comes to the dollar is that it's all politics.

All right I wont argue anymore in this thread, we're here to make money, not argue who is right or wrong, the one that earns money is right, the one that gets slaughtered is wrong, the market is that direct.

Just what I believe and what my technicals tell me, that 2.0652 peak and last week's 2.0365 high on Sterling is probably the highest point from now till the end of this year. Sterling according to me, has already started the big bear trend.
  • #30,988
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:15pm Sep 17, 2007 2:15pm
Quoting cesarnc
I wouldn't be surprised either. As I agree with you that some major reversal in cable's trend could be cooking.

But GBP can reverse its trend without prompting a dollar trend reversal

A few more posts and we will get to the conclusion we are thinking the same shit here / different approaches.
Yeah that is true, the dollar index is 63%+ Euro, so other currencies can reverse their trends without the dollar doing it. But when I look at the Euro index too, it looks like it still needs to make another down wave to complete the bigger correction.
  • #30,989
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:17pm Sep 17, 2007 2:17pm
Quoting coolhand
Sterling bear trend? I agree, been short since 2.0280 from last week and still looking for more downside to come.
I've been short since 2.0290 and targeting around under 1.9800 to finish the first wave.
  • #30,990
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:20pm Sep 17, 2007 2:20pm
Quoting Qu|cksilver
I have done alot of analysis since last friday and it shows cable can go up to 1.9033 maybe.. and i don't think today the price will hit that level because today not much news for gbp and usd.
go up to 1.9033 ???
  • #30,991
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:21pm Sep 17, 2007 2:21pm
Quoting Luffy
So you're actually expecting them to raise
Well anything can happen, raising rates is possible, but the effects can be disastrous to the markets
But I like your thinking
yeap,...i am always expecting unexpected... , i also am expecting for gbp, and euro to raise them,...sooner then expected in some emergency meeeting, or whatever...and 1 more thing, as of today, i am back to scalping whatever moves,...and ill start by analizing the cap of my broker,...all i wont is his 1 maybe 2 percent of his cap...in 5 years,...thats reasonable...
its just money
  • #30,992
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:22pm Sep 17, 2007 2:22pm
Quoting karmostaji
no, take a history course.
This is not the point on the "open for debate" statement....I think it's more on the "ethnic/semantic" side of the story.

As a Brazilian I'm taken for "SPANISH" here in America. Thats technically incorrect if you look at the fact that Brazil is a Portuguese colony not a Spanish colony.

But since Spain,France, Italy, Portugal, Romania, etc all fall in the "latin" or "latino" category...calling me "SPANISH" is not THAT inaccurate.
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #30,993
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:23pm Sep 17, 2007 2:23pm
Quoting pinchapip
http://news.bbc.co.uk/
They would be lucky to beat an egg.
  • #30,994
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:26pm Sep 17, 2007 2:26pm
Quoting Luffy
I've been short since 2.0290 and targeting around under 1.9800 to finish the first wave.
Nice. Great minds think alike! I don't have a target yet. I let my chart tell me when to exit. I hope you're right, 1.98 would make for a nice payday! Of course, Greenspan could get a hemmorhoid attack and it all could change, LOL!
  • #30,995
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:28pm Sep 17, 2007 2:28pm
Some critical situation here, in the weekly.

Yellow trendline a possible target in case of a major correction (like in 2004-2005)

Red channel (starting mid-2006) under pressure, lower trendline at about 9800 right now. If this one goes... humm-humm... Ah if this one goes...
Attached Image
  • #30,996
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:28pm Sep 17, 2007 2:28pm
Quoting coolhand
Of course, Greenspan could get a hemmorhoid attack and it all could change, LOL!

thats funny....but indeed true....
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #30,997
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:30pm Sep 17, 2007 2:30pm
Quoting cesarnc
Some critical situation here, in the weekly.

Yellow trendline a possible target in case of a major correction (like in 2004-2005)

Red channel (starting mid-2006) under pressure, lower trendline at about 9800 right now. If this one goes... humm-humm... Ah if this one goes...
As a consolation for the Briton Bulls.....cable could go to 1.85 area and still be on an uptrend
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #30,998
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:31pm Sep 17, 2007 2:31pm
Detail on the channel...

The lower trenline is a good buy actually... But who's going against this beast's move in the last days?
Attached Image
  • #30,999
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:33pm Sep 17, 2007 2:33pm
Quoting cesarnc
Detail on the channel...

The lower trenline is a good buy actually... But who's going against this beast's move in the last days?
Did I mention that some banks are starting to bet on the 1.85 area!!!!!!
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #31,000
  • Sep 17, 2007 2:35pm Sep 17, 2007 2:35pm
Quoting cesarnc
Some critical situation here, in the weekly.

Yellow trendline a possible target in case of a major correction (like in 2004-2005)

Red channel (starting mid-2006) under pressure, lower trendline at about 9800 right now. If this one goes... humm-humm... Ah if this one goes...
Yeah that channel support might make prices bounce, but I think it should not provide much support. My target specifically is 1.9740, I am not sure if that is possible at this stage yet or not, But I know Sterling will probably make another new recent low before making the bigger retracement.
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