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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #30,941
  • Sep 17, 2007 11:41am Sep 17, 2007 11:41am
"We had the ability and flexibility if you so chose, to move (interest rates) down without worrying about the significant increases that may occur," . "It's different now. And it's very clear that the tradeoffs on inflation and growth are altered. And the Fed has to be far more careful about inflation now than when I was chairman."

Alan Greenspan
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #30,942
  • Sep 17, 2007 11:45am Sep 17, 2007 11:45am
Quoting pinchapip
"We had the ability and flexibility if you so chose, to move (interest rates) down without worrying about the significant increases that may occur," . "It's different now. And it's very clear that the tradeoffs on inflation and growth are altered. And the Fed has to be far more careful about inflation now than when I was chairman."

Alan Greenspan
Yeah, a 187 years old guy like him has to show wisdom: for days he's saying exactly what the market wants to hear AND exactly what Fed wants to hear in the same sentence regardless the fact that market and Fed wants to hear opposite things


He's THE MASTER.
  • #30,943
  • Sep 17, 2007 11:49am Sep 17, 2007 11:49am
Quoting cesarnc
Yeah, a 187 years old guy like him has to show wisdom: for days he's saying exactly what the market wants to hear AND exactly what Fed wants to hear in the same sentence regardless the fact that market and Fed wants to hear opposite things


He's THE MASTER.
Well Cesar....we can agree or not with what the old man says...but something is unquestionable, when he talks the world listens...and listens VERY CAREFULLY !!!!!
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #30,944
  • Sep 17, 2007 11:55am Sep 17, 2007 11:55am
If the US section... the Dow... etc end up badly today I will stay up all night long, its gonna be a bull slaughter.
Attached Image
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #30,945
  • Sep 17, 2007 11:58am Sep 17, 2007 11:58am
Quoting pinchapip
Well Cesar....we can agree or not with what the old man says...but something is unquestionable, when he talks the world listens...and listens VERY CAREFULLY !!!!!
I know it. A brought that about few pages back. Bernanke's Fed has lost credibility so much, that it is Greenspan that is being asked the questions for quite some time here. Good for his just-released book ....

In the otherhand, Greenspan, who is far from stupid, is managing the answers not to panic the market and leaves room for Fed to go on B.S-ing the market.

In the end of the day, he has nothing to loose. He just wanna sell the damn book.
  • #30,946
  • Sep 17, 2007 11:58am Sep 17, 2007 11:58am
as for the cable, it has retraced to 61.80 fibo, well i thought it would do only till 50...30ma on weekly chart indicates below 930 is a strong buy,...if we are above even more,...fresh buy aperantly happen as of today (i dont see september contract to be trading, at leasst i cant), so i see only up,...anybody care 2 agree?, and we can all go longon a little retracement if any?...guys tell me what u think...
its just money
  • #30,947
  • Sep 17, 2007 12:10pm Sep 17, 2007 12:10pm
Quoting de123
guys tell me what u think...
http://school.discovery.com/clipart/images/hello.gif
  • #30,948
  • Sep 17, 2007 12:14pm Sep 17, 2007 12:14pm
LOL....well im going long right in 20 sec.,..and u do what u wona do,..thanks for the funny pic....read my lips,...we will see 1000 pips from here...
its just money
  • #30,949
  • Sep 17, 2007 12:17pm Sep 17, 2007 12:17pm
Quoting de123
as for the cable, it has retraced to 61.80 fibo, well i thought it would do only till 50...30ma on weekly chart indicates below 930 is a strong buy,...if we are above even more,...fresh buy aperantly happen as of today (i dont see september contract to be trading, at leasst i cant), so i see only up,...anybody care 2 agree?, and we can all go longon a little retracement if any?...guys tell me what u think...
I think it's confused - like us - if it ended up at 9920 after much whipping above that, I wouldnt be surprised..but I am clueless as to wazzapnin really...

I am off to short the dow any time it gets much over 13400 - with oil above 80 dollars ? and greenspan saying hold rates and cramer hyper ventilating ?

got to be another short there - got to be another trip down the banister
  • #30,950
  • Sep 17, 2007 12:18pm Sep 17, 2007 12:18pm
Is it all in my mind...or do we have e nice head and shoulder forming here ?!?!?!
Attached Image
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #30,951
  • Sep 17, 2007 12:45pm Sep 17, 2007 12:45pm
OK, time to get really serious here... Cīmon, only 24h won't kill us...

Tomora's Fed's rate statement

There are 3 scenarios. My plan is to check first 15 min action while getting familiar with the statement on the newswires.

1. Stock market rally on rate cut (0.5%?) + statement
Best trades long EURUSD, EURJPY, USDJPY
AUD and NZD pairs, too?
GBPUSD not advised due to last developments in UK?

2. Stock market selloff on rate cut (0.25% / no-cut) + statement
Best trades short EURJPY, USDJPY
GBPUSD is a possibility, since cable is weak already. I don't think there will be buyers around in this scenario.... But cable may be sold out already (last 1.9950)

3. Stock market bumping on rate cut (0.25%??) + confusing statement
In this case I think the best trade is staying out (for the week?)

Due to last developments in UK, I'm really afraid of trading cable whathever the outcome...

I'm not closed on those pairs and I still haven't decided which to trade in each scenario.

Cīmon, bring up your views here... 24 hours to go...
  • #30,952
  • Sep 17, 2007 12:55pm Sep 17, 2007 12:55pm
Quoting ClockTrader
where is that guy ScottH? he was short since asian session
he must be a rich man by now, lolz

sleep/work.. at least I have a flexible job that allows me to be home more than most. if it can close below 1.99 good chance it will go back down to 1.9650
  • #30,953
  • Sep 17, 2007 12:57pm Sep 17, 2007 12:57pm
Quoting de123
as for the cable, it has retraced to 61.80 fibo, well i thought it would do only till 50...30ma on weekly chart indicates below 930 is a strong buy,...if we are above even more,...fresh buy aperantly happen as of today (i dont see september contract to be trading, at leasst i cant), so i see only up,...anybody care 2 agree?, and we can all go longon a little retracement if any?...guys tell me what u think...
Please not cable long until after Tuesday anyway!!! Cable has already made its 157 pips movement since the London session anyway so unless something catastrophic happens in U.K, prices will be in consolidations until London open or Fed announcement.
  • #30,954
  • Sep 17, 2007 1:02pm Sep 17, 2007 1:02pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Not great at fundi stuff, but heres my view.
any cut is bad for the US it's recognition of the bad condition of the economy and will only send any ***/USD pair long. the only exception to this is the cable, i think this will hold it's current outlook and take minor baby steps until after the news about british banks has finished it's rounds this month. Barclays, Northern rock and Alliance and leister are all requesting funds, just some more public than others.
I see northern roack's PR people trying to get the other banks out in the open to save there own skins and balance the bank profiles again.

As it is I am not about tommorow to trade, so without choice i cannot risk to open position's.
that said i am still Long EU 1.3800 with pips locked in at 1.3820.
i was long Au but got stopped out today at 8380, will AH that incase of a rise.

and still short GJ and AJ, will close both out before bed.

MPP

Quoting cesarnc
OK, time to get really serious here... Cīmon, only 24h won't kill us...

Tomora's Fed's rate statement

There are 3 scenarios. My plan is to check first 15 min action while getting familiar with the statement on the newswires.

1. Stock market rally on rate cut (0.5%?) + statement
Best trades long EURUSD, EURJPY, USDJPY
AUD and NZD pairs, too?
GBPUSD not advised due to last developments in UK?

2. Stock market selloff on rate cut (0.25% / no-cut) + statement
Best trades short EURJPY, USDJPY
GBPUSD is a possibility, since cable is weak already. I don't think there will be buyers around in this scenario.... But cable may be sold out already (last 1.9950)

3. Stock market bumping on rate cut (0.25%??) + confusing statement
In this case I think the best trade is staying out (for the week?)

Due to last developments in UK, I'm really afraid of trading cable whathever the outcome...

I'm not closed on those pairs and I still haven't decided which to trade in each scenario.

Cīmon, bring up your views here... 24 hours to go...
  • #30,955
  • Sep 17, 2007 1:09pm Sep 17, 2007 1:09pm
well had to take my 52 pips loss, my hopes and dreams didnt materialise ) not the best start to the week but lets see what it will have in store for us.

call to go short at 2.0003 was good though )
  • #30,956
  • Sep 17, 2007 1:11pm Sep 17, 2007 1:11pm
I think I wasn't clear...

I don't want to anticipate fundis for tomorrow. I'm debating which pairs / directions could provide the best trades in each of the scenario we meet tomorrow.

I don't think there's a 4th possibility here. Up / down / up&down

As well as I'm REALLY afraid of trading cable ....
  • #30,957
  • Sep 17, 2007 1:15pm Sep 17, 2007 1:15pm
Trade with the herd and get slaughtered with the herd. Throw away what you believe economic data must do, I would not be surprised if a cut of interest rates actually makes the dollar rally in the end.
  • #30,958
  • Sep 17, 2007 1:17pm Sep 17, 2007 1:17pm
Iran scorns French warning of war


Beware EUR or GBP traders !!!! If France decides to copy-cat America and go mess with the Arabs it could send the EUR, GBP and any other European currency to hell.

They don't have half the money or military power to mess with this kind of thing. Apart from all the expenses a war brings, just think about the massive terrorist attacks Europe would have to endure. Can you picture a scenario like that ?!?! Dollar and yen to the stratosphere.
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #30,959
  • Sep 17, 2007 1:18pm Sep 17, 2007 1:18pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting Luffy
Trade with the herd and get slaughtered with the herd. Throw away what you believe economic data must do, I would not be surprised if a cut of interest rates actually makes the dollar rally in the end.
trua that, after the way forex has reacted to fundi's laterly you are probably correct.
  • #30,960
  • Sep 17, 2007 1:20pm Sep 17, 2007 1:20pm
Quoting pinchapip
Iran scorns French warning of war


Beware EUR or GBP traders !!!! If France decides to copy-cat America and go mess with the Arabs it could send the EUR, GBP and any other European currency to hell.

They don't have half the money or military power to mess with this kind of thing. Apart from all the expenses a war brings, just think about the massive terrorist attacks Europe would have to endure. Can you picture a scenario like that ?!?! Dollar and yen to the stratosphere.
Iran is NOT an Arab country.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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