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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #1,701
  • Edited Feb 2, 2007 5:49pm Dec 13, 2006 6:51pm | Edited Feb 2, 2007 5:49pm
Looking at the GBP/USD 1 Day Chart I can see what your thinking.

But your only looking at a Super Cycle here of the Daily.

You could back off of the close view and see a Grand Super Cycle taking place.

Low was 6/12/01 at 1.3682
Waves
1- 10/05/01 - 1.4843
2- 11/23/01 - 1.4044
3- 12/16/04 - 1.9548
4- 11/28/05 - 1.7337
5 - (In the process of completing now top now)

Monarch


Quoting yungdannyboy
thats what I was thinking, GBP is gonna drop to 1.9340 on Wave C for a 38.2% retracement. But why are some saying that it is gonna keep going up breaking 1.9847(the high) into the 1.2000's???? How can that be possible if it is on Wave 4? I'm trying to learn as much as possible about Elliott Waves.
  • #1,702
  • Dec 13, 2006 6:57pm Dec 13, 2006 6:57pm
so what next ? How about GU today
  • #1,703
  • Dec 13, 2006 7:02pm Dec 13, 2006 7:02pm
We seen a nice little drop this morning, a little more than I expected.

On the Hourly Chart the Pound has settled for the past 6 hours at the 1.9655 support.

This is a good indication the Short is over, and were getting ready to go Long.

Keep in mind were still in a upwards trend for the last several weeks, and this week is included.

Monarch

Quoting monarch
At the time of this post the Pound dropped to 1.9668 then bounced back to a high of 1.9727.

I do not think this was what you were referring to, rather the move this morning with the low at 1.9622.

I am expecting the Pound to stay about where it is right now at 1.9655 which is a 38.2% Fibo then eventually back up.

I don't think the Pound is done just yet, just a little cooling off to pull in a few jumpy Bearish traders.

Now we wait for the run of the Bulls for a good ride back up pressing 1.9743 Fibo.

Monarch
  • #1,704
  • Dec 13, 2006 8:07pm Dec 13, 2006 8:07pm
Thanks alot Monarch. It helped me a lot. I have to look at the bigger waves.
  • #1,705
  • Dec 13, 2006 9:01pm Dec 13, 2006 9:01pm
Yup.. i agree but i prefer to wait for GBP - Retail sales news. If the news negative for cable and the daily support break, then short.

Quoting monarch

This is a good indication the Short is over, and were getting ready to go Long.

Keep in mind were still in a upwards trend for the last several weeks, and this week is included.

Monarch
"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
  • #1,706
  • Dec 13, 2006 10:10pm Dec 13, 2006 10:10pm
Quoting monarch
We seen a nice little drop this morning, a little more than I expected.

On the Hourly Chart the Pound has settled for the past 6 hours at the 1.9655 support.

This is a good indication the Short is over, and were getting ready to go Long.

Keep in mind were still in a upwards trend for the last several weeks, and this week is included.

Monarch
Hi, Monarch Just wondering are you still holding that short of yours? heading down to 1.9300 level?
Just want to add that, your logic and reasoning worked out last night for the short run down toward 38% fib level. Wondering if you can please indicate your forecast to be short term or long term? I do understand that your seeing choppy grounds ahead. And this comment on " The short is Over" is it for a short term?
Thanks
  • #1,707
  • Dec 13, 2006 10:37pm Dec 13, 2006 10:37pm
Yesterday on the 1 Hour Chart you can see about 11 candles that just floated around the 61.8 % mark at 1.9700 area. They remained on top in part, then during the Frankfurt Open, 1 hour before London open at 3:00 am E.T. it went below the Fibo 1.9700. It went down a bit, then returned above the Fibo to stay until this morning at 10:00 am E.T.

This morning at 10:00 am E.T. it broke below the 1.9700 mark and has stayed below.

Now we have found a new support at the 50% Fibo of 1.9655 mark and we see the same formation happening once again. Bouncing a little bit, staying above the Fibo and just basically doing very little. The price has not closed below 1.9555 Fibo, and remains there now.

We are about 2 1/2 hours away of the Frankfurt Open, and then we should see more movement.

At the London Open, we should see the pressure put on 1.9700 mark once again. This will help us figure out the actual strength of the upwards trend.

I would like to see if we can stay above the 1.9700 mark again, or if we will fall below the 1.9655 mark.

<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR title="Post 159694" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>Qu|cksilver</TD><TD class=alt2>Yup.. i agree but i prefer to wait for GBP - Retail sales news. If the news negative for cable and the daily support break, then short.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

This is my view also Qu|cksilver

This is our upcoming news (Pacific Time)
<TABLE class=tborder style="MARGIN-TOP: 12px" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=3 width="100%" align=center border=0><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap>Thu. 12/14</TD><TD class=alt1>12:30am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>CHF</TD><TD class=alt1>Interest Rate Statement</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...sc/mi_high.gif</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>2.00%</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>1.75%</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3312 align=middle>[read] </TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_3312 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>

</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>1:00am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>CHF</TD><TD class=alt1>SNB 2006 Media News Conference</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...isc/mi_med.gif</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3317 align=middle>[read] </TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_3317 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>
</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>1:30am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>GBP</TD><TD class=alt1>Retail Sales m/m</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...sc/mi_high.gif</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle></TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>-0.1%</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>0.9%</TD><TD class=alt1 id=collapsecal_eventanalysis_3279 align=middle>[read] </TD></TR></THEAD><TBODY id=collapseobj_eventanalysis_3279 style="DISPLAY: none"><TR><TD class=alt1 style="PADDING-BOTTOM: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #f0feed" width="100%" colSpan=9>

</TD></TR></TBODY><THEAD><TR><TD class=alt1 noWrap></TD><TD class=alt1>2:00am </TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>EUR</TD><TD class=alt1>Labor Cost Index q/q</TD><TD class=alt1 align=middle>http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...isc/mi_low.gif</TD></TR></THEAD></TABLE>


Monarch
  • #1,708
  • Dec 13, 2006 10:51pm Dec 13, 2006 10:51pm
Quoting yulvme
Hi, Monarch Just wondering are you still holding that short of yours? heading down to 1.9300 level?
Just want to add that, your logic and reasoning worked out last night for the short run down toward 38% fib level. Wondering if you can please indicate your forecast to be short term or long term? I do understand that your seeing choppy grounds ahead. And this comment on " The short is Over" is it for a short term?
Thanks
I originally had two Entry Positions waiting.

1. Short at 1.9720
2. Short at 1.9743

Position 1 at 1.9720 was triggered and I had it set for 75 pips. It closed out positive, and with plenty of room before the drop gave out its last breath.

Position 2: Short at 1.9743 has not been triggered yet, it is still awaiting the price to accelerate upwards.

I am only trading short term for now, revising my long term drop off. I do not see the actual large drop as of yet. Thence I am only hitting the Fibo and Resistance points for now.

Position 2: Short Entry Waiting at 1.9743

I did trade one position manually last night, and I jumped ahead of my indication by two 5 Minute candles - I read it wrong. (Sleepy at that time)

I now have a Position 3:
I have a Long Waiting at 1.910 which missed by 15 Pips this morning.

There you go!

Warning: Please do not use this as an indicator or signal for your personal trading strategy - it is only my opinion and it can cause you tremendous losses.
  • #1,709
  • Dec 13, 2006 11:17pm Dec 13, 2006 11:17pm
Thank you very much for clearning that up! by the way, nicely done with all ur techiques. Thought out and well planned. Keep up with the great work.
  • #1,710
  • Dec 14, 2006 1:57am Dec 14, 2006 1:57am
Cable still bid. Watching for stops through the 1.9695/00
"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
  • #1,711
  • Dec 14, 2006 2:07am Dec 14, 2006 2:07am
It looks that Yen crosses are dominating today's market. Expecting Tankan's good number, still Yen crosses are pushing up !
  • #1,712
  • Dec 14, 2006 2:08am Dec 14, 2006 2:08am
Yen gonna be stong



Quoting kappa
It looks that Yen crosses are dominating today's market. Expecting Tankan's good number, still Yen crosses are pushing up !
"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
  • #1,713
  • Dec 14, 2006 2:13am Dec 14, 2006 2:13am
so is anybody still trading the technique that started the whole thread? i have just started reading the back posts as well as the new ones and it dosent seem that that technique is being utilized! any hoot im gonna say The 50 pip/tick mark just got hit and im going to get in on the practice account and try and make 30 pips!
  • #1,714
  • Dec 14, 2006 2:21am Dec 14, 2006 2:21am
can you re-attached the technique you mention

TQ

Quoting SirPipsAlot
so is anybody still trading the technique that started the whole thread? i have just started reading the back posts as well as the new ones and it dosent seem that that technique is being utilized! any hoot im gonna say The 50 pip/tick mark just got hit and im going to get in on the practice account and try and make 30 pips!
  • #1,715
  • Dec 14, 2006 2:22am Dec 14, 2006 2:22am
Swissy's rate statement coming in 5min
  • #1,716
  • Dec 14, 2006 2:25am Dec 14, 2006 2:25am
as the high @ 9712 was hit a short while ago price bounced of a TL on my H4 chart, the same happening with yesterday's high @ 9726, so I am not sure if cable will go higher short-term, especially if UK news in 1 hour is not good
Consistency and patience is everything
  • #1,717
  • Dec 14, 2006 2:32am Dec 14, 2006 2:32am
Quoting ariban
can you re-attached the technique you mention

TQ
well from what i have been reading this thread was started using a technique that took the opeing price at 12:00 midnight est. and depending on the price action whether moving up 50pips or down 50pips you would get in the direction of the trend after that 50 pip was hit. You would then set 30 pip stop loss or limit. And depending on the limit you could trail or do what you wanted to do after those 30pips were hit! But like i said im still reading the posts some 115 pages worth so its going to take me a while. But the most recent ones mention nothing of this strategy!
  • #1,718
  • Dec 14, 2006 2:37am Dec 14, 2006 2:37am
Actually i posted in the wrong thread. However its pretty interesting reading here is the thread i ment to post in! http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ead.php?t=9286
  • #1,719
  • Dec 14, 2006 3:14am Dec 14, 2006 3:14am
i went short at 9700. is it a good idea to close it before the retail sales data?
  • #1,720
  • Dec 14, 2006 3:20am Dec 14, 2006 3:20am
ya well my practice account just got stopped for that 30 pip loss. That cant be to good for the first time using that method! Good thing it was only in my practice account
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