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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #1,681
  • Dec 13, 2006 12:08pm Dec 13, 2006 12:08pm
Quoting monarch
well, I wanted to place a entry, but not right now.

I have to go do my real job out there

I am looking for test of support at the S1.

Monarch
Monarch,

What levels are you using? What do you have as S1? I use Fib's, EMA's, and Murrey math levels... Looks like the 144 EMA is now providing some resistance.
  • #1,682
  • Dec 13, 2006 12:12pm Dec 13, 2006 12:12pm
Quoting mmccormac
The picture in my mind has changed for the GBP/USD. The technicals picture is very close to being short looking, the candlestick formations agree with a short, and the Fundamentals agree. I went short on the last bounce up at 675. One thing that can change the picture would be if the Pound has a very good Retail Sales tonight to change the picture, but right now I have to disagree with most of you. I expect a dip to 9595 and a break lower would give us 9565, and then way down at 9515 is the 377 EMA the GBP bounced from earlier this week...Guess we'll know soon enough.
Couldn't just leave.

I placed an Entry Waiting for Long at the 1.9610 mark, if it hits this I will see if it jumps up again.

I will be gone for about 4 hours, so when I get back I could be broke.

Monarch
  • #1,683
  • Dec 13, 2006 12:15pm Dec 13, 2006 12:15pm
Quoting monarch
Couldn't just leave.

I placed an Entry Waiting for Long at the 1.9610 mark, if it hits this I will see if it jumps up again.

I will be gone for about 4 hours, so when I get back I could be broke.

Monarch
That's a good place for it... The 233 EMA is sitting around 9595 and it should provide quite a bit of support.
  • #1,684
  • Dec 13, 2006 12:16pm Dec 13, 2006 12:16pm
I am looking at the S1 Daily at 1.9618, and also my Fibo at 1.9610 from my retracement up Fibo mark.

I really hate being rushed during the movement times such as this, gotta have a position in place.

Monarch



Quoting mmccormac
Monarch,

What levels are you using? What do you have as S1? I use Fib's, EMA's, and Murrey math levels... Looks like the 144 EMA is now providing some resistance.
  • #1,685
  • Dec 13, 2006 12:18pm Dec 13, 2006 12:18pm
Quoting monarch
I am looking at the S1 Daily at 1.9618, and also my Fibo at 1.9610 from my retracement up Fibo mark.

I really hate being rushed during the movement times such as this, gotta have a position in place.

Monarch
Oh I see... I wasn't sure if you were looking at Fib retracements or looking at some other pivot indicator.
  • #1,686
  • Dec 13, 2006 12:19pm Dec 13, 2006 12:19pm
gotta go
  • #1,687
  • Dec 13, 2006 12:33pm Dec 13, 2006 12:33pm
any idea where cable wants to go? I see the 4h chart is bearish now, but overall it seemed to be up
  • #1,688
  • Dec 13, 2006 12:42pm Dec 13, 2006 12:42pm
Quoting c1ro
any idea where cable wants to go? I see the 4h chart is bearish now, but overall it seemed to be up
Hard to say... It was in a nice down move but the 144EMA and 61.8 Fib from the last down move rejected it. We have GBP Retail Sales tonight and they will help with direction, but as of right now it still looks bearish (with caution from that major rejection at the 61.8 Fib). Not sure now is the best time to take a position... Like I said earler I got in at 675 and I always phase in and out of orders... I've locked some profit and will let the rest ride with a stop now at break even for the remaining position... But to anwser your question the Fundamentals are tricky becuase we have very good numbers from the US and GBP this week... GBP higher than expected CPI and a surprise last night with the lower than expected unemployment... The US has had a good Trade Balance report (Caution... Most of the decline was due to lower oil prices), and this morning with the surprise on the good Retail sales. Good luck!
  • #1,689
  • Dec 13, 2006 12:50pm Dec 13, 2006 12:50pm
can anyone advise how to convert local time for this forum
  • #1,690
  • Dec 13, 2006 1:11pm Dec 13, 2006 1:11pm
The pound is preparing for its jump to 2.0. When this will happen no one knows. Until it does, trade the ranges that it has been making. It shouldn't be hard to profit knowing the ranges.
A. Finesse Williams Making Millions One Pip At A Time!
  • #1,691
  • Dec 13, 2006 1:12pm Dec 13, 2006 1:12pm
Quoting c1ro
any idea where cable wants to go? I see the 4h chart is bearish now, but overall it seemed to be up
Did you see how it bounced off the descending trendline at 1.9731 to head back down? This was the fifth time it touched that trendline drawn from its 1.9842 top and fell back. And its first downwards leg stopped just off 1.9461 hich is where we had that gap at the Asian opening a couple of weeks ago (and of course the 38s Fib supprt). Beautiful! If it breaks above 1.9740 I am buying it for the 1.99s-2.00s level.

I must say it doesn't look that bearish to me. I dont think it will go lower than 1.9600-1.9550 before it starts its last rise towards 2.00s. If I were riskier I 'd buy it at 1.96 with a 50pip SL or so..

..opinions?
  • #1,692
  • Dec 13, 2006 1:25pm Dec 13, 2006 1:25pm
Quoting Haris79
Did you see how it bounced off the descending trendline at 1.9731 to head back down? This was the fifth time it touched that trendline drawn from its 1.9842 top and fell back. And its first downwards leg stopped just off 1.9461 hich is where we had that gap at the Asian opening a couple of weeks ago (and of course the 38s Fib supprt). Beautiful! If it breaks above 1.9740 I am buying it for the 1.99s-2.00s level.

I must say it doesn't look that bearish to me. I dont think it will go lower than 1.9600-1.9550 before it starts its last rise towards 2.00s. If I were riskier I 'd buy it at 1.96 with a 50pip SL or so..

..opinions?
I agree. It all depends on what time frame we are talking. That's part of the problem in the forum. I may be saying it's bearish looking but I may only be looking for 50 pips even though I know the long term trend will be up. I am still thinking it will test 2.020 sometime this month data dependent. The CPI for the US this Friday may help the cause (fingers crossed).
  • #1,693
  • Dec 13, 2006 2:20pm Dec 13, 2006 2:20pm
-3pips here today, mainly due to FXCM and putting me on that stupid impossible to get filled direct crap. ( e-mailed swapped me back thankfully )

12hour SMA capped it on that spike, 40min turning down, and threating to break 2hour sma.


Watch the EUR/USD, support 1.3200, when this fails the GBP gets dragged down with it.

ST Downtrend, MT Uptrend still intact.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #1,694
  • Dec 13, 2006 4:50pm Dec 13, 2006 4:50pm
If you draw a fibo on the daily from the very lower end when this big move up trend began, we reached the 23% but not the 38%.

http://img379.imageshack.us/img379/6...sddailynd7.gif
  • #1,695
  • Dec 13, 2006 4:57pm Dec 13, 2006 4:57pm
Quoting katzenhai2
If you draw a fibo on the daily from the very lower end when this big move up trend began, we reached the 23% but not the 38%.

http://img379.imageshack.us/img379/6...sddailynd7.gif
thats what I was thinking, GBP is gonna drop to 1.9340 on Wave C for a 38.2% retracement. But why are some saying that it is gonna keep going up breaking 1.9847(the high) into the 1.2000's???? How can that be possible if it is on Wave 4? I'm trying to learn as much as possible about Elliott Waves.
  • #1,696
  • Dec 13, 2006 5:19pm Dec 13, 2006 5:19pm
Because not everyone uses here the EW theory and not everyone sees the same. Sure, it could go up as high as 9743, because of a fibo 76.4 % from the absolute high to the last low. Could be reached or not, we will see.
  • #1,697
  • Dec 13, 2006 5:28pm Dec 13, 2006 5:28pm
Quoting yungdannyboy
thats what I was thinking, GBP is gonna drop to 1.9340 on Wave C for a 38.2% retracement. But why are some saying that it is gonna keep going up breaking 1.9847(the high) into the 1.2000's???? How can that be possible if it is on Wave 4? I'm trying to learn as much as possible about Elliott Waves.
Hi,

my first post here but I like this forum so maybe could help from time to time I trade Murrey Math and also I think that's a down trend right now. About that chart - remember that you draw 2 waves retracement, last wave retr. was exactly 0.618 and also last up move to that imaginatory resistance level was also 0.618! I bet lot's of money now that they are going down to at least 9350 (50%) or lower (.618). Look at weekly chart, 3 long waves up and we're at the top of the world. Murrey also says we're extremely overshoot, now after correction we're "just" overshoot so way down to at least 9287 or 9043 is open

Any ideas on Retail Sales m/m ?? Today someone wrote that us data was gonna be better and it was Even if the data is as expected they should make another 80-100 pips down but if not...?

Best regards and good hunting pips
  • #1,698
  • Dec 13, 2006 5:32pm Dec 13, 2006 5:32pm
Quote
Even if the data is as expected they should make another 80-100 pips down but if not...?
The news are priced in if you talk about Waves. See the NFP, the big boys trade how they want it, regardless of the outcoming news reports. If you trade EW, its like a self-fulling prophecy.
  • #1,699
  • Dec 13, 2006 5:35pm Dec 13, 2006 5:35pm
Quoting katzenhai2
The news are priced in if you talk about Waves. See the NFP, the big boys trade how they want it, regardless of the outcoming news reports. If you trade EW, its like a self-fulling prophecy.
I know that and if you check the calendar it all keeps together nicely (btw nice conspiracy theory there...) but I'm mostly interested right now in short term to close my short so good news might speed up things...
  • #1,700
  • Dec 13, 2006 6:19pm Dec 13, 2006 6:19pm
where has fixme1too gone to ...????
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