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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #30,641
  • Sep 14, 2007 9:32am Sep 14, 2007 9:32am
Quoting gmohata
I think Ben is a more Reactive person than a Proactive - which leads me to believe that he will only cut 25 bp - which may not be enough but will tell the market that he is doing something and keeps the hopes alive for further cuts. This could be bad for the market which is already pricing in 50 bp cut - but that will only be very short term - in the long term the markets will begin to stabilise with hopes of further rate cuts.

I would be very suprised if Ben cuts 50 bps.

If he doesnt cut anything - well .. its anyone's guess - market will be way too volatile and confused for me to even reason here.
I've read exactly the opposite opinions. That Bernanke doesn't want to be as reactive as Greenspan was.

And furthermore, one main criticism is that Greenspan acted on intuition and gut feeling, which the market loved. While Bernanke goes opinions, data, meetings, books, you know the usual B.S.

Since the disappoiting lecture in Berlin, Bernanke vanished, while Paulson poped out of nowhere with the same speech. Of course we cannot predict what Fed is going to do. But I do not believe in a cut.
  • #30,642
  • Sep 14, 2007 9:38am Sep 14, 2007 9:38am
Dow coming green after a -98 open... go figure... try trade... try not to blow your mind
  • #30,643
  • Sep 14, 2007 9:48am Sep 14, 2007 9:48am
Quoting cesarnc
But I do not believe in a cut.
We never know.

Remember BoE? They held, they said "lets wait and see", inflation dropped, they hiked right after it.

Btw. How are you planning to converge your view of "no cut, market tumble" with your view GBP at least 2.0650 again.

Are you trusting only on the weekly trend?

Because even if we resume around 2.0000 after the Fed hold, with this kind of panic days it will be difficult to find reason to rise to new highs.

I will stay with the trend for now anyway but that Daily H&S is really scary because the hold is a perfect way to complete it and make all the Tech traders head for Weekly TL test again.
  • #30,644
  • Sep 14, 2007 9:49am Sep 14, 2007 9:49am
fasten your seat belts cable could... but not enough impetus ?
  • #30,645
  • Sep 14, 2007 9:56am Sep 14, 2007 9:56am
hmmm dont like how this cable behaves out with -5, will go long if it manages to get over 130
  • #30,646
  • Sep 14, 2007 10:02am Sep 14, 2007 10:02am
Quoting Warper

Btw. How are you planning to converge your view of "no cut, market tumble" with your view GBP at least 2.0650 again.
It depends on the speech. a no-cut signaling cuts will disgust the market at the first moment, but further economic data could add to the cut bias, thus throwing dollar down the hole.

What happened today is this case. Economic data was lousy, so stocks tumbled in the first minute, but the data themselves added to the cut bias, so stocks are going up .

But the problem for us right now is that, again, stocks are going up, while treasuries are going down. This put dollar crazy. Check swiss and euro since yesterday and you will know what I mean... (Swiss and euro weren't hit by the NR event, so they filter cable's volatilty better, revealing the dollar trade).

This is a temporary event, imo, since bears are covering in the trasuries ahead of the rate statement, just like yesterday.
  • #30,647
  • Sep 14, 2007 10:02am Sep 14, 2007 10:02am
Quoting cesarnc
I've read exactly the opposite opinions. That Bernanke doesn't want to be as reactive as Greenspan was.

And furthermore, one main criticism is that Greenspan acted on intuition and gut feeling, which the market loved. While Bernanke goes opinions, data, meetings, books, you know the usual B.S.

Since the disappoiting lecture in Berlin, Bernanke vanished, while Paulson poped out of nowhere with the same speech. Of course we cannot predict what Fed is going to do. But I do not believe in a cut.
The Dow is still at record high guys, the economy is doing ok, a quick stop at Publix here in south Florida tells me that inflation is still a problem. Now these gamers in Wall Street whining about the risks they took, the dice they rolled. Will uncle Ben reward bad behavior???? Who knows.... right ?!?!
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #30,648
  • Sep 14, 2007 10:11am Sep 14, 2007 10:11am
DOW will fall by the end of the day, have some patience.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #30,649
  • Sep 14, 2007 10:16am Sep 14, 2007 10:16am
Don't know about you guys but...my charts show cable poking, and maybe already breaching, a daily pivot line !!!!!
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #30,650
  • Sep 14, 2007 10:16am Sep 14, 2007 10:16am
guess next stop is gonna be close to 2.000
  • #30,651
  • Sep 14, 2007 10:21am Sep 14, 2007 10:21am
Yep !!!!! Daily pivot GONE !!!!!
For he that would be deceived, let him.
  • #30,652
  • Sep 14, 2007 10:23am Sep 14, 2007 10:23am
are you loading the truck yet Cesar ? I don't trust cable any more - it bites my fingers. Never let the same dog bite you twice ?

Thinking of a little long on euro but the small gravity of gbp might pull it down a little further before it turns this trip...

Dem Deutschen Volke wish 39 though, so they should have it next week...

someone's put a rumour round about Ben not cutting havent they....

These will come and go...great fun !
  • #30,653
  • Sep 14, 2007 10:29am Sep 14, 2007 10:29am
Quoting allserene
are you loading the truck yet Cesar ? I don't trust cable any more - it bites my fingers. Never let the same dog bite you twice ?
No, I'm out. 38% fib is gone now. Next stop, hopefully is the 50% at 0007. As they say, "you can get rich by just buying 50% fibs". So... bring it on!.. Euro is not making it below last toppish 3852, but anything around 3800 will be a potential buy to me. Take it or not will depend on price action on Monday.

Let's see how Monday goes. Soon the market is on fumes and there will be no trade to take anymore...

I still think a bullrun in the stock market until the end of the day. Sorry karmo :
  • #30,654
  • Sep 14, 2007 10:34am Sep 14, 2007 10:34am
Quoting pinchapip
Yep !!!!! Daily pivot GONE !!!!!
CRAZY CABLE!!
Kiyoski JR. "Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy."
  • #30,655
  • Sep 14, 2007 10:37am Sep 14, 2007 10:37am
Posted this in James16's private forum few hours ago, might help.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp01.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #30,656
  • Sep 14, 2007 10:37am Sep 14, 2007 10:37am
I think i will set buy at 50% fibo and keep it until next week.
Kiyoski JR. "Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy."
  • #30,657
  • Sep 14, 2007 10:38am Sep 14, 2007 10:38am
I'm on the sidelines also, crazy Friday and I think come Monday there will be very little movement until the rate announcement Tuesday.

Once again...It's Friday....Happy hour is starting...

Meet you at the bar......
  • #30,658
  • Sep 14, 2007 10:39am Sep 14, 2007 10:39am
not everyday you can see the cable change three clothes:
2.02xx then 2.01xx then 2.00xx, then what???
To be or not to be, that's the question
  • #30,659
  • Sep 14, 2007 10:41am Sep 14, 2007 10:41am
Quoting hoezhiens
not everyday you can see the cable change three clothes:
2.02xx then 2.01xx then 2.00xx, then what???
then, Naked.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #30,660
  • Sep 14, 2007 10:43am Sep 14, 2007 10:43am
Quoting karmostaji
then, Naked.
Cable having thier fasting.. not break yet :
Kiyoski JR. "Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy."
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