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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #1,641
  • Dec 13, 2006 9:54am Dec 13, 2006 9:54am
Quoting fixme1too
look for 9624-9594 then up to 9775 then the short again
At the time of this post the Pound dropped to 1.9668 then bounced back to a high of 1.9727.

I do not think this was what you were referring to, rather the move this morning with the low at 1.9622.

I am expecting the Pound to stay about where it is right now at 1.9655 which is a 38.2% Fibo then eventually back up.

I don't think the Pound is done just yet, just a little cooling off to pull in a few jumpy Bearish traders.

Now we wait for the run of the Bulls for a good ride back up pressing 1.9743 Fibo.

Monarch
  • #1,642
  • Dec 13, 2006 10:00am Dec 13, 2006 10:00am
Quoting monarch
At the time of this post the Pound dropped to 1.9668 then bounced back to a high of 1.9727.

I do not think this was what you were referring to, rather the move this morning with the low at 1.9622.

I am expecting the Pound to stay about where it is right now at 1.9655 which is a 38.2% Fibo then eventually back up.

I don't think the Pound is done just yet, just a little cooling off to pull in a few jumpy Bearish traders.

Now we wait for the run of the Bulls for a good ride back up pressing 1.9743 Fibo.

Monarch

Professor is back in town.
  • #1,643
  • Dec 13, 2006 10:04am Dec 13, 2006 10:04am
Quoting monarch
At the time of this post the Pound dropped to 1.9668 then bounced back to a high of 1.9727.

I do not think this was what you were referring to, rather the move this morning with the low at 1.9622.

I am expecting the Pound to stay about where it is right now at 1.9655 which is a 38.2% Fibo then eventually back up.

I don't think the Pound is done just yet, just a little cooling off to pull in a few jumpy Bearish traders.

Now we wait for the run of the Bulls for a good ride back up pressing 1.9743 Fibo.

Monarch
How do you get the 1.9743 Fibo?
  • #1,644
  • Dec 13, 2006 10:11am Dec 13, 2006 10:11am
For my own development, I'm curious about that too.

Quoting ikholod
How do you get the 1.9743 Fibo?
  • #1,645
  • Dec 13, 2006 10:12am Dec 13, 2006 10:12am
All the way back to the 9700s 180 pips on the table in the last 5 hours... Tell me about trend
  • #1,646
  • Dec 13, 2006 10:13am Dec 13, 2006 10:13am
Quoting cesarnc
All the way back to the 9700s 180 pips on the table in the last 5 hours... Tell me about trend
Cesarnc

Can you please explain what you mean about this trend at 16.00 GMT
mama
  • #1,647
  • Dec 13, 2006 10:16am Dec 13, 2006 10:16am
Quoting Mama007
Cesarnc

Can you please explain what you mean about this trend at 16.00 GMT
Someone said to wait for 1600 GMT, when a down move could occur. I then asked why 1600GMT and other someone said that would be London market closing effect.

At 1600GMT Cable soared back to the 9700s.

I thought there was something scheduled at 1600GMT, but no.

But "there's something about 1600 GMT" today
  • #1,648
  • Dec 13, 2006 10:35am Dec 13, 2006 10:35am
Now that cable is retracing a bit, what point should I enter long. Please Advise. Thanks
  • #1,649
  • Dec 13, 2006 10:37am Dec 13, 2006 10:37am
Quoting ikholod
How do you get the 1.9743 Fibo?
Simple,

Looking at the 1 Day Chart run a Fibo from the Top on Dec 1st, 2006 down to the Low on Dec 11th.

You should have the Fibo's as:

38.2% - 1.9609
50% - 1.9657 (I am using this mark as a support right now)
61.8% - 1.9702 (Which is a familar spot to all of us right?)

Next point to break would be the 78% FIBO right?

That my friend will have to be calculated by the classroom.

Let me know what you get at the 78% FIBO mark.

Hint........could it be my point of reference?



Monarch
  • #1,650
  • Dec 13, 2006 10:48am Dec 13, 2006 10:48am
FIBO's can be used in all time frames.

Looking at the 5 Minute Chart:

Price drops to 1.9604 and bounces up (Hourly only showed low at 1.9622)
It actually comes right down around the FIBO Mark of 38.2% as shown in my last post.

Then it jumps up from there to around 1.9647 just under our 50% Fibo (1.9657)

Then it breaks above that Fibo mark and pushes upwards again to the next area of 1.9693 just short of the 61.8% FIBO (which originally I had at 1.9698 mark)

Now we are going back down to the 50% Fibo mark of 1.9657. This is why I am keying on this for support right now.

The Pound is only exercising its muscle right now! Look at it this way folks.
It works up a little momentum - does a test on the Bears strength - finds a little resistance - then relaxes between workouts for a breather - then comes back a little stronger the next time.

It has tested all areas of the Fibo marks, with the exception of the 78% mark at 1.9743. It is here we will see if it completely drops off, or has enough to push to the 2's.

Hope this is helping someone,

Monarch
  • #1,651
  • Dec 13, 2006 10:52am Dec 13, 2006 10:52am
Hi Monarch,

yes, it helps very much. Very interesting point of view. Thanks

  • #1,652
  • Dec 13, 2006 10:54am Dec 13, 2006 10:54am
Thanks Monarch.
  • #1,653
  • Dec 13, 2006 10:54am Dec 13, 2006 10:54am
I forgot to give the retracement upwards on the 5 Min Fibo

Top is 1.9718 and Low is 1.9604.

38.2% 1.9647
50% 1.9661
61.8% 1.9675

It tested the 50% so far, but has not succesfully passed it yet.

Price is resting above the (5 Min Chart) 38.2% Fibo at 1.9647 but actually it is resting on the 50% Fibo of the (1 Hour Chart) at 1.9655-57 area.

Monarch
  • #1,654
  • Dec 13, 2006 10:56am Dec 13, 2006 10:56am
Understanding the pair's "personality" is really something. Hope to get to that point one day. Undoubtely a strong advantage to the trader...
  • #1,655
  • Dec 13, 2006 10:56am Dec 13, 2006 10:56am
Thanx 4 that short lesson on GBP behaviour. I have just started learning Fibonacci. The entry & exit points will still require some practice in demo
Quoting monarch
FIBO's can be used in all time frames.

Looking at the 5 Minute Chart:

Price drops to 1.9604 and bounces up (Hourly only showed low at 1.9622)
It actually comes right down around the FIBO Mark of 38.2% as shown in my last post.

Then it jumps up from there to around 1.9647 just under our 50% Fibo (1.9657)

Then it breaks above that Fibo mark and pushes upwards again to the next area of 1.9693 just short of the 61.8% FIBO (which originally I had at 1.9698 mark)

Now we are going back down to the 50% Fibo mark of 1.9657. This is why I am keying on this for support right now.

The Pound is only exercising its muscle right now! Look at it this way folks.
It works up a little momentum - does a test on the Bears strength - finds a little resistance - then relaxes between workouts for a breather - then comes back a little stronger the next time.

It has tested all areas of the Fibo marks, with the exception of the 78% mark at 1.9743. It is here we will see if it completely drops off, or has enough to push to the 2's.

Hope this is helping someone,

Monarch
  • #1,656
  • Dec 13, 2006 10:58am Dec 13, 2006 10:58am
Quoting monarch
I forgot to give the retracement upwards on the 5 Min Fibo

Top is 1.9718 and Low is 1.9604.

38.2% 1.9647
50% 1.9661
61.8% 1.9675

It tested the 50% so far, but has not succesfully passed it yet.

Price is resting above the (5 Min Chart) 38.2% Fibo at 1.9647 but actually it is resting on the 50% Fibo of the (1 Hour Chart) at 1.9655-57 area.

Monarch
Can you tell me where you draw your fibo lines on the 5 min chart - Is it from the high of the day?
mama
  • #1,657
  • Dec 13, 2006 10:59am Dec 13, 2006 10:59am
Can you remember where the post that stated the average Pips per week on the Pound was? I can't locate it.

If you know it would help tremendously,

Thanks

Monarch
  • #1,658
  • Dec 13, 2006 11:04am Dec 13, 2006 11:04am
Thanks Monarch, I also only started to consider fibs more seriously recently (there was just too much other stuff to take during my first few months of FX).

As a small aside, on my chart the 76.4 fib is @ 9755 (rather than your 9743).

More critically, you seem pretty convinced that cable will go back up at least to 76.4% rather than down from here. If so, where do you take that conviction from - given that some cynics might argue it's actually 50/50 most of the time?

Thanks again for your valuable insights!
Consistency and patience is everything
  • #1,659
  • Dec 13, 2006 11:05am Dec 13, 2006 11:05am
Quoting monarch
Simple,

Looking at the 1 Day Chart run a Fibo from the Top on Dec 1st, 2006 down to the Low on Dec 11th.

You should have the Fibo's as:

38.2% - 1.9609
50% - 1.9657 (I am using this mark as a support right now)
61.8% - 1.9702 (Which is a familar spot to all of us right?)

Next point to break would be the 78% FIBO right?

That my friend will have to be calculated by the classroom.

Let me know what you get at the 78% FIBO mark.

Hint........could it be my point of reference?



Monarch
Well,

Let's see:

High on Dec 1 = 1.9848
Low on Dec 11 = 1.9465

So, the range = 1.9848 - 1.9465 = 383
78% of 383 = 298.74

So, a 78% retracement would roughly put us at 1.9465 + .0299 = 1.9764

1.9764 is not equal to 1.9743 and that is why I asked the question.
  • #1,660
  • Dec 13, 2006 11:08am Dec 13, 2006 11:08am
Dont know whether this will help u. Give it a try.
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