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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #30,501
  • Sep 13, 2007 4:27pm Sep 13, 2007 4:27pm
yes, my stop is very very tight...
i don't wanna be fool by cable again today.... lol...
To be or not to be, that's the question
  • #30,502
  • Sep 13, 2007 5:52pm Sep 13, 2007 5:52pm
Maybe flirt with 2.0130?? Will buy then.
JP (A.K.A. HT)
  • #30,503
  • Sep 13, 2007 6:13pm Sep 13, 2007 6:13pm
Hey guys, don't rush up on this madness...

Cable at 0100s is a sweet sweet buy opportunity cooking, with profit possibility exceeding 400 pips in the short to medium term (days to weeks).

I'm now looking for a consistent bounce off somewhere + strong dollar short moves across the board to get back long cable with a beautiful r:r, Let's just see if "dollar down" bias kicks in from now until Tuesday.

Two very nice indicators on the dollar are swiss and euro and when dollar is on the run, you can see both of them moving by the pip.

However, both swiss and euro are at high levels with poor r:r for longs and failing to retrace. If there are traders to join the dollar dump party, cable is the sweetest pick at these levels.

I reduced the size I'm going back on euro and have no entry price on cable yet. But I will go big in this MF. This is a trending pair and its trend will resume. Period.

Patience, cold blood and a few cursing words on the way are welcome. Johhnie Walker might be helpful, too..

Back by London
  • #30,504
  • Sep 13, 2007 6:20pm Sep 13, 2007 6:20pm
Quoting cesarnc
Hey guys, don't rush up on this madness...

Cable at 0100s is a sweet sweet buy opportunity cooking, with profit possibility exceeding 400 pips in the short to medium term (days to weeks).

I'm now looking for a consistent bounce off somewhere + strong dollar short moves across the board to get back long cable with a beautiful r:r, Let's just see if "dollar down" bias kicks in from now until Tuesday.

Two very nice indicators on the dollar are swiss and euro and when dollar is on the run, you can see both of them moving by the pip.

However, both swiss and euro are at high levels with poor r:r for longs and failing to retrace. If there are traders to join the dollar dump party, cable is the sweetest pick at these levels.

I reduced the size I'm going back on euro and have no entry price on cable yet. But I will go big in this MF. This is a trending pair and its trend will resume. Period.

Patience, cold blood and a few cursing words on the way are welcome. Johhnie Walker might be helpful, too..

Back by London
I agree that the longer term trend is still prevalent, but for now I am thinking that a small drop in price will occur first. I am going to wait and see if the 2.0150 area of support holds and then hopefully get a market entry there for a long. 2.04 looks to be a reasonable target to start with.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #30,505
  • Sep 13, 2007 6:22pm Sep 13, 2007 6:22pm
What is making you think that 2.01 will secure if you don't mind me asking. Thanks.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #30,506
  • Edited 6:53pm Sep 13, 2007 6:38pm | Edited 6:53pm
I was winning 100 pips for god sake. I got home and saw a ffffffff mini unwind and end up in loss. 100 pips god damn it.

But what pissed me off was trying to understand how the fffff could that unwind happen hours after the close of US session and many hours before the Asian session.

Now cable is aproaching another short term trend line with again a confluence of barriers. I'm thinking in a buy here since UJ is rising a bit and nikkei is green.

Again... this was a stupid overreact of UJ and GJ barriers.

UJ reached the 618 fib from the down move and the 100 h4 SMA which ruled the pair for the entire month and GJ reached 200 SMA.

Probably automatic TP or entry orders trigged. I don't see how could that unshit happen in a super low trading period.

I think at least we could see tonight 2.0150 (H4 TL and Daily 50 EMA)

If we don't, i will buy in the way up to when i got stopped out.





I must tell this. This is unfair... i waited 1 entire week to get a good entry point. I avoided all the GU crazy days... and when i enter in a perfect pretty retraction... "hey lets unwind carry trades at random"

Its stupid, reminds me poker champions that win with 1 percent probability against a great player who ends up losing with 99%





Quoting mike w
What is making you think that 2.01 will secure if you don't mind me asking. Thanks.
Probably he is looking at the 382 Fib from the 1.9649 -> 2.0365 move.
  • #30,507
  • Sep 13, 2007 6:41pm Sep 13, 2007 6:41pm
GJ is going to unwind like crazy today IMO

I'm targetting 229.00, today will be interesting..
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #30,508
  • Sep 13, 2007 6:51pm Sep 13, 2007 6:51pm
Quoting karmostaji
GJ is going to unwind like crazy today IMO

I'm targetting 229.00, today will be interesting..
I don't know about that, but i'm starting to realize that this days GJ took the spot light of UJ.

It seems that every single pair follows GJ and its starting to get annoying again.

I don't mean to criticize but i don't understand some of your strategies because sometimes you guys seem to ignore completly correlation factors.

You for example said that you will buy at 2.0150 but you are expecting a 300 pip drop on GJ. Are you aware that one of your trades will be a loss?
  • #30,509
  • Sep 13, 2007 6:54pm Sep 13, 2007 6:54pm
Quoting Warper
I don't know about that, but i'm starting to realize that this days GJ took the spot light of UJ.

It seems that every single pair follows GJ and its starting to get annoying again.

I don't mean to criticize but i don't understand some of your strategies because sometimes you guys seem to ignore complely correlation factors.

You for example said that you will buy at 2.0150 but you are expecting a 300 pip drop on GJ. Are you aware that one of your trades will be a loss?
If GJ falls, it doesn't mean GU has to fall my friend..

but I won't buy at 0150 unless I see that support holds.. I have 2 fib levels lying at 0152 plus a lower TL of a bullish channel
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #30,510
  • Sep 13, 2007 7:06pm Sep 13, 2007 7:06pm
Quoting karmostaji
If GJ falls, it doesn't mean GU has to fall my friend..

but I won't buy at 0150 unless I see that support holds.. I have 2 fib levels lying at 0152 plus a lower TL of a bullish channel
Well you are right, but if we see 229 today, i put my hands in the fire if GU stays above 2.0150 by that time. I seriously doubt because that would make UJ an incredible beast.

Anyway. You can add Daily 50 EMA to that confluence of barriers around 2.0150


Whatever price we buy 0150 or 0100... the way up to 400 and above will get us in profit even if we get stopped out before. But tomorow Sales from US will be the trigger.
  • #30,511
  • Sep 13, 2007 7:13pm Sep 13, 2007 7:13pm
i dont know dudes but the cable got me totally confused....i dont know where it will go next well ....fuk i know but i dont trust my judgements.....because this entire week i have been fuking wrong when i should be right ......this have never happened to me be4....


like right now my indicator are telling me that the drop is not done yet but i dont know if i should enter or not....so i have decided to stay out.....cant trust this fuk this week.....
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #30,512
  • Sep 13, 2007 7:14pm Sep 13, 2007 7:14pm
Quoting Warper
Well you are right, but if we see 229 today, i put my hands in the fire if GU stays above 2.0150 by that time. I seriously doubt because that would make UJ an incredible beast.

Anyway. You can add Daily 50 EMA to that confluence of barriers around 2.0150


Whatever price we buy 0150 or 0100... the way up to 400 and above will get us in profit even if we get stopped out before. But tomorow Sales from US will be the trigger.
first stop for GJ is 230.50, if that gives way then we'll see 229.00

I'll keep an eye on cable and see if 0150 area holds or not, but yeah 0400 is still on the cards
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #30,513
  • Sep 13, 2007 7:14pm Sep 13, 2007 7:14pm
Quoting Warper
Well you are right, but if we see 229 today, i put my hands in the fire if GU stays above 2.0150 by that time. I seriously doubt because that would make UJ an incredible beast.
Well, i take this... 113.50 for UJ is not that dificult.
  • #30,514
  • Sep 13, 2007 7:16pm Sep 13, 2007 7:16pm
Quoting Warper
Well you are right, but if we see 229 today, i put my hands in the fire if GU stays above 2.0150 by that time. I seriously doubt because that would make UJ an incredible beast.

Anyway. You can add Daily 50 EMA to that confluence of barriers around 2.0150


Whatever price we buy 0150 or 0100... the way up to 400 and above will get us in profit even if we get stopped out before. But tomorow Sales from US will be the trigger.
its all about the res/sup levels my friend, you sound very stressed, relax enjoy the ride. how didyour trade end up in the minus? you dont use sl?
  • #30,515
  • Sep 13, 2007 7:19pm Sep 13, 2007 7:19pm
Good Morning/Night everyone,

like I said yest.

Quote
"Trading this volatile cable is like playing with fire, so I'll stay away from cable"

I'm just glad I'm still not trading cable, will try to stay away from it until 19th, hope the heat has settled by then.

Hello World!
  • #30,516
  • Sep 13, 2007 8:04pm Sep 13, 2007 8:04pm
Quoting got pips?
i dont know dudes but the cable got me totally confused....i dont know where it will go next

like right now my indicator are telling me that the drop is not done yet but i dont know if i should enter or not....so i have decided to stay out.....cant trust this fuk this week.....
Trading with the trend has the disadvantage of being very difficult to know if the pair is too much overbought or not because good support barriers are far away. Sometimes we wait to get a better price and the pair shoots up because ppl didn't care about it. But its normal and we shouldn't care about that so much.

If we are right in the medium term and if this is not a multi month (2 year) trend reversal we will see at least the last highs and if we do, all of our losses trading with the trend, will end up being erased and with profit because we have the chance of buying again at the same prices we got stopped out.



Regarding if you should enter or not, i must say that is very difficult to a pair being so close to a trend line or a daily level and avoid trading it, just because shorter term barriers were in the way.

We should see 2.015x... but if you are not sure, enter with half or 1 third of your normal size now and add on confirmation if we go to 2.0150

You call your own shots




Quoting forexboomer
you sound very stressed
I'm sorry, what are you talking about lol?

Quoting forexboomer
how did your trade end up in the minus? you dont use sl?
I think this post http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=30419 might awnser you.


You don't know me or how i trade, how can you assume right away that i am one of the guys who blow the entire account in a single trade?

Anyway, i got angry because i was in a high probability trade. I was winning 100 pips right after i entered and i ended up losing not because of a normal reverse or even a spike but because some idiots resolved to unwind carries without any reason out of any open session.

It was just wierd and unfair.
  • #30,517
  • Sep 13, 2007 11:10pm Sep 13, 2007 11:10pm
Time to go Long...
Kiyoski JR. "Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy."
  • #30,518
  • Sep 13, 2007 11:20pm Sep 13, 2007 11:20pm
Quoting Kiyosaki JR
Time to go Long...

...but i dont think for "too long"...i think another drop to around the 0090s is in store before the bull run begins..
  • #30,519
  • Sep 13, 2007 11:43pm Sep 13, 2007 11:43pm
Quoting Kiyosaki JR
Time to go Long...
Don't do that right now, wait for the Asian session to finish before making your decision. Relative Strength is dropping so I think the bearish trend is still in the work.
  • #30,520
  • Sep 14, 2007 12:07am Sep 14, 2007 12:07am
hi

I think cable still is selling area ... who agree with me
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