Cable Update (GBPUSD)

I don't trade waves...

But this strong pressure against the dollar across the board is clearly a rate cut being priced in....

Now, I'm dying for Bernanke keep the good work and pop with a "no-change" screwup, so we can short the living hell out of all the pairs ...

But if he pops with a +0.5%, then cable is 2.1, euro 1.45 "sooner than you expected"


I think it works. The problem, imo, is that you cannot trade it. By the time you figure out the amazingly precise wave count it formed, there was 600 pips gone LOL.....

Well, i'm just warning. I'm a nice guy.:




Hey new poll. I like polls. Let's vote.

Or maybe it will be better to vote, 1 day before expiration.

This is old news, but worth keeping an eye on

$4.5 billion options bet on catastrophe within four weeks Anybody have aclue as to what these 'investors' are expecting?

The two sales are being referred to by market traders as "bin Laden trades"
because only an event on the scale of 9-11 could make these short-selloptions valuable.

There are 65,000 contracts @ $750.00 for the SPX 700 calls for openinterest. That controls 6.5 million shares at $750 = $4.5 Billion. Not a
single trade. But quite a bit of $$ on a contract that is 700 points awayfrom current value. No one would buy that deep "in the money" calls. Noreason to. So if they were sold looks like someone betting on massivedislocation. Lots of very strange option activity that I haven't seenbefore.

The entity or individual offering these sales can only make money if themarket drops 30%-50% within the next four weeks. If the market does notdrop, the entity or individual involved stands to lose over $1 billion justfor engaging in these contracts!

Clearly, someone knows something big is going to happen BEFORE the optionsexpire on Sept. 21.

THEORIES:

The following theories are being discussed widely within the stock andoptions markets today regarding the enormous and very unusual activityreported above and two stories below. Those theories are:

1) A massive terrorist attack is going to take place before Sept. 21 totank the markets, OR;

2) China, reeling over losing $10 Billion in bad loans to the sub-primemortgage collapse presently taking place, is going to dump US currency andtank all of Capitalism with a Communist financial revolution. Eitherscenario is bad and the clock is ticking. The drop-dead date of thesecontracts is September 21. Whatever is going to happen MUST take placebetween now and then or the folks involved in these contracts will lose
over
$1 billion for having engaged in this activity.

"$1.78 Billion Bet that Stock Markets will crash by third week in SeptemberAnonymous Stock Trader Sells 10K Contracts on EVERY S&P/Y "Strike" ShortsStocks "in the money" effectively selling all his SPY holdings for cash upfront without pressuring the market downward.

This is an enormous and dangerous stock option activity. If it goes right,
the guy makes about $2 Billion. If he's wrong, his out of pocket costs forbuying these options will exceed $700 Million!!! The entity who sold thesecontracts can only make money if the stock market totally crashes by thethird week in September.

Bear in mind that the last time anyone conducted such large and unusualstock option trades (like this one) was in the weeks before the attacks ofSeptember 11.

Back then, they bought huge numbers of PUTS on airline stocks in the sameairlines whose planes were involved in the September 11 attacks.

Despite knowing who made these trades, the Securities and ExchangeCommission NEVER revealed who made the unusual trades and no one was ever
publicly identified as being responsible for the trades which made upwardsof $50 million when the attacks happened.



The fact that this latest activity by a single entity gambles on a completecollapse of the entire market by the third week in September, seems toindicate someone knows something really huge is in the works and theyintend to profit almost $2 Billion within the next four weeks from whateverhappens! This is really worrisome."

Here is what i think about the poll.

The main weekly trend line is at 1.9754 at this point.

For every week passing, that TL rises 26 pips.

There are 14 weeks remaining to the end of the year, which means that until 2008 that trend line will rise 364 pips.

1.9754+0.0364 is above 2.0000

This, looking it at a technical prespective only.

At a fundamental prespective... only another major collapse can destroy that TL, because if the Fundamentals remain "smooth..." i don't see why should the trend be broken.

I've read that already. Seems too doomsday to me, but there's a way to verify that...

I don't understand those "options" deal, so if there is anyone who does, please confirm whether or not this "activities" are indeed unusual...

- I guess de123 knows something about options...

piggin cable get in gear man ! got most of my losses back on a nice DOW short but still big long on cable...if it pops 50 i am out

I am insane when there is no trend and bad UK news all around...

Long the quid must have become a habit - time to reassess - evolve quickly to the new world or go extinct...

When Benjybobs cuts 0.25 and they are all bouncing around like headless chickens wondering what happened and Cramer drowns in his own gob foam, I will rethink it - until then I am shorting the dow every time it sits up in it's death agonies with oil at 80 ish and buying euro dips..decision made

I hope the SEC investigate every option owner with an address like 'c/o # 9, tora bora'

I mean come on - I have heard some tosh but a terrorist putting options ? What next they buy the white house through an Afghanistan based private equity firm and demolish it and build a petting zoo ... (don't mention monica)

LOL. Just checked the 4hr chart -> depressing.

Specially in a day with such strong moves against the dollar across the planet...

Go figure...

Guess when the retracement starts in all markets, cable will sink for simpathy LOL

SideWay ........... cable can't go long or short ... just sideway

RIght now, I'm with you on that. I think that the trend upwards will continue after this though.

Actually you are bang on right - recently when euro goes up, cable goes up some or stands still - when euro goes down, cable comes down big. That is the rule recently.

With the euro above 39 for the first time, its bound to fall back under temporarily and cable can ONLY get smashed

good job I have some beer downstairs - I think my long is pooped !

Its struggling to hold onto 2.03 and if it gets another hour without falling off i will be surprised...by then i will be out and licking my wounds

I closed the 3 longs that I opened today with profit, I really can't tolorate more than that, very boring day, and I'm extremely bored, and I'm thinking to close the rest of my trades as well

just covered my long from earlier today at -7 although it went to +54 at some point but i was away and unable to use trailing stop. Cable is not showing any strength in it and this new outbreak of foot and mouth is not helping either.

LOL, let's face it! If there was a wrong pick in this market today it was GBP


I was purely lucky today, since I went long BIIIGGGG on Euro at 3850 after the 3880 peak, betting on a pullback to go to the roof. Being this way, I had just a tiny margin left to long cable - and I did.

But I usually trade cable heavier than euro... Was 100% luck, or I'd be pissed off big time by now...

Wish I would of traded Euro also, but I scalped some pips so that's fine also.

The question is.....who will blink first....

Euro coming down or pound going up......

Makes you wonder.................

Your choice was perfect
I was purely unlucky today, I have a friend who asked me to close all my longs when they reach 360+ but I didn't listen to his advise, although he was insisting that cable won't go more than this level and that it is a false breakout, it's my fault, my luck
I would like to apologise to my long trades that I didn't close them @ 360 (my unrealised profit was +750 pips)
My mind stopped now, and I guess that any action I will take now will not be studied regarding my 5 remaining longs

take a rest, get some sleep, refresh your mind, come back tomorrow

It was luck... I was in sync with euro since Friday and decided to go mouting profits with it, in spite of being slower than cable...

I was in the right place at the right time and it was a very unusual position to me....

Hey, btw, good news popping...

Analysts are expeting that "volatility index" (VIX or something) to reach Aug's high level by the time of Fed's statement on Tuesday and in the following days...

Last time we saw that, GJ was spraying 300 pips an hour here.... If we get the market right, it will be one hell of a week to trade

In theory we are supposed to forget our loss and history and say 'would i go into the mkt long right now ? '

if the answer is no then we should get out now

i will have a beer and wait for 5 pips down and then bang I am out

the actual 1hr candle is 6 PIPS wide so far

You will need A LOT OF BEER if you want to see 5 pips from here LOL....

Damn pair to trade... I hope this curse to go away soon.....

I'm going out for a lecture on basics of stock market... Thinking about venturing some cash around here. So far, just gathering information. Back in a few hours....

Buy an index fund as soon as it hits 12500 and forget it for a few years....
there saved you a trip !