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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #29,781
  • Sep 10, 2007 11:25am Sep 10, 2007 11:25am
zigzag day, zigzag week, zigzag month zigzag year, zigzag life....
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  • #29,782
  • Sep 10, 2007 11:52am Sep 10, 2007 11:52am
Quoting Turtle
And I think the market is hoping to get more signals tomorrow when Bernanke speaks....otherwise we won't hear nothing until the 18th.

P.S. Tom Brady...nice stats yesterday vs. the Jets.....
I agree:

"U.S. stocks fell for a second day, led by mortgage companies and homebuilders, after San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen said the U.S. economy is under ``downward pressure'' because of the housing slump."

The problem is that those "signals" from Fed are always like "risk appreciably to downside", "Fed will act as needed", "no bailout".

This freaking Egyptian hieroglyphic messages from Fed is what causes this enormous volatility and seesaws in the market, in the first place.

Dow traded +80 and -90 today already... How can someone trade this MF?

Long story short, I keep my view. Fed has NO IDEA how bad it is out there. No idea how to solve the problem, Bernanke is STILL looking at inflation as major source of concern....

  • #29,783
  • Sep 10, 2007 11:56am Sep 10, 2007 11:56am
Quoting cesarnc


Long story short, I keep my view. Fed has NO IDEA how bad it is out there. No idea how to solve the problem, Bernanke is STILL looking at inflation as major source of concern....

And I dare saying this: Fed is not cutting rates in September and I doubt they will in 2007
  • #29,784
  • Sep 10, 2007 11:59am Sep 10, 2007 11:59am
Quoting cesarnc
And I dare saying this: Fed is not cutting rates in September and I doubt they will in 2007
So what do you think what will happen then... Shall we see further slide of the dollar index?? To the levels of WHAT?? Maybe 60??
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  • #29,785
  • Sep 10, 2007 12:00pm Sep 10, 2007 12:00pm
how about the credit news today?...what u guys think?
its just money
  • #29,786
  • Sep 10, 2007 12:04pm Sep 10, 2007 12:04pm
  •  CWH
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: United We Buy, Divided We Sell | 249 Posts
Quoting bullrock
zigzag day, zigzag week, zigzag month zigzag year, zigzag life....
My mind also "Zig Zag"......

"If, at first, you don't succeed, try, try, try again" - Winston Churchill
  • #29,787
  • Sep 10, 2007 12:04pm Sep 10, 2007 12:04pm
The dollar index....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: di.GIF Size: 82 KB
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  • #29,788
  • Sep 10, 2007 12:07pm Sep 10, 2007 12:07pm
Quoting bullrock
So what do you think what will happen then... Shall we see further slide of the dollar index?? To the levels of WHAT?? Maybe 60??
After the Bush-Bernanke speech (Friday before the last one), market reactd pretty well. I thought last week would be fairly calm, with the stock market recoverying.

I was WWWRRROOONNNNGGGG

After last NFP, I thought the selloff was the first reaction to the news that would be followed by the sentiment that Fed would cut rates. So was the headlines this morning.

I was WWWROOONNNNGGGG

Headlines are still messed up (exactly what I didn't want for this week), Fed's messages are still confusing, cable and euro are trading detached, dollar bias is mixed and with the exception of the shitload of Fed officers on the wires and the US retail sales, there is no important economic data this week.

So, with this jumpy start in the stock market, I'd say we are having another lousy week to trade. Best thing I've done in this situation is sticking with one direction only. Can be long (on bounce off supports) or short (selling rallies). You pick one. I picked "long", but both could be profitable if you have a good timing and control eventual losses.

But "trading both ways", like the dog chasing his own tail will take you nowhere. That's for sure.
  • #29,789
  • Sep 10, 2007 12:14pm Sep 10, 2007 12:14pm
I just noticed that, 18 Sept will not only bring Fed rate but UK CPI.

If the fed doesn't cut and remain with the same "copy/paste" statement and UK cpi remain nearly 2%.

Are anyone here disposed to short GU with 100:1 leverage or more?

LoL
  • #29,790
  • Sep 10, 2007 12:14pm Sep 10, 2007 12:14pm
Check this article...

This week's bias is "everybody sitting on their hands". This is the nastiest bias possible to trade coz moves go exacerbated both ways.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/20688858
  • #29,791
  • Sep 10, 2007 12:16pm Sep 10, 2007 12:16pm
Quoting Warper
I just noticed that, 18 Sept will not only bring Fed rate but UK CPI.

If the fed doesn't cut and remain with the same "copy/paste" statement and UK cpi remain nearly 2%.

Are anyone here disposed to short GU with 100:1 leverage or more?

LoL
If breaks that trendline.... I would go short but certainly not 1:100 maybe 1:10000 Get serious.. I would go short with some reasonable leverage... 1:5 and 2% risk max
.
  • #29,792
  • Sep 10, 2007 12:19pm Sep 10, 2007 12:19pm
Quoting cesarnc
After the Bush-Bernanke speech (Friday before the last one), market reactd pretty well. I thought last week would be fairly calm, with the stock market recoverying.

I was WWWRRROOONNNNGGGG

After last NFP, I thought the selloff was the first reaction to the news that would be followed by the sentiment that Fed would cut rates. So was the headlines this morning.

I was WWWROOONNNNGGGG

Headlines are still messed up (exactly what I didn't want for this week), Fed's messages are still confusing, cable and euro are trading detached, dollar bias is mixed and with the exception of the shitload of Fed officers on the wires and the US retail sales, there is no important economic data this week.

So, with this jumpy start in the stock market, I'd say we are having another lousy week to trade. Best thing I've done in this situation is sticking with one direction only. Can be long (on bounce off supports) or short (selling rallies). You pick one. I picked "long", but both could be profitable if you have a good timing and control eventual losses.

But "trading both ways", like the dog chasing his own tail will take you nowhere. That's for sure.
Thanks for your sincere analysis...

Here is what I do I go short, I go long and I go short and I go long and I go pub and I go get drunk and phuck all a*** around then put my one leg in the mouth of someone.... PLEASE ACTION. I go broke like that.
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  • #29,793
  • Sep 10, 2007 12:20pm Sep 10, 2007 12:20pm
Quoting Warper
I just noticed that, 18 Sept will not only bring Fed rate but UK CPI.

If the fed doesn't cut and remain with the same "copy/paste" statement and UK cpi remain nearly 2%.

Are anyone here disposed to short GU with 100:1 leverage or more?

LoL
I missed that one! But I loved the idea...

Some article says the selloff could be huge if Fed does not cut. The cut is like the last buoy the market is relying on.
  • #29,794
  • Sep 10, 2007 12:31pm Sep 10, 2007 12:31pm
Quoting cesarnc
Check this article...

This week's bias is "everybody sitting on their hands". This is the nastiest bias possible to trade coz moves go exacerbated both ways.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/20688858
Of all the hands to sit on - my own would be my last choice - I wonder if Liz Hurley is busy.......
  • #29,795
  • Sep 10, 2007 12:31pm Sep 10, 2007 12:31pm
Quoting cesarnc
I missed that one! But I loved the idea...

Some article says the selloff could be huge if Fed does not cut. The cut is like the last buoy the market is relying on.
OH!!!! And I forgot the funny part.

There are articles already that go:

"Would a rate cut solve the problem"????

WE ARE FFFF@#@%$%@#EEEDDD HEEERREEE!!!!
  • #29,796
  • Sep 10, 2007 12:35pm Sep 10, 2007 12:35pm
Quoting cesarnc
But I loved the idea...
haha

I know you have the courage to do it.

Some times i wonder how much fun it would be to win 100 pips and double the account. Of course that kind of feeling is away when i press the button. I'm just kidding but i know there are times when is possible to do it and get away with it without big risk. But i can't!

We have seen many times in our humble trading days that some news end up being counter intuitive. It's part of the game....

But common, 1.9 CPI and Fed,.. "risk to inflation is in the upside, no donuts for anybody"

Even if it reverses a 1 hour later the primary impact is 100 pips down with no doubt. So in that case my leverage will indeed increase.

10:1 is enough thought! 100 pips 10%

Remind me the -4 NFP on GY
  • #29,797
  • Sep 10, 2007 12:40pm Sep 10, 2007 12:40pm
Quoting Warper
haha

I know you have the courage to do it.

Some times i wonder how much fun it would be to win 100 pips and double the account. Of course that kind of feeling is way when i press the button. I'm just kidding but i know there are times when is possible to do it and get away with it without big risk. But i can't!
Increasing your margin to insane levels on strong data is the best way to boost profit fast. What you have to do is go adding and adding and adding on confirmation of the move, lock SL at B/E with some 30 pips in profit, and never think twice once cable has already put a 120-150 pips range day. Get out or at least, take the majority of the profit.
  • #29,798
  • Sep 10, 2007 12:45pm Sep 10, 2007 12:45pm
Down for the Count (Update 15) - British Connection

"British subprime specialist Victoria Mortgages became the latest victim of the credit crisis on Monday, as the lender said it had gone into administration and was no longer funding new loans after its costs escalated."
  • #29,799
  • Edited 12:56pm Sep 10, 2007 12:51pm | Edited 12:56pm
Quoting cesarnc
I missed that one! But I loved the idea...

Some article says the selloff could be huge if Fed does not cut. The cut is like the last buoy the market is relying on.

And don't forget tomorrow is the 6th anniversary of 9/11, with Bin laden sending out some video last week, and everyone looking for a Fed cut and the other BS that is going around the market....a sell-off could be in the future.

Bernanke is going to wait until the last minute....if the sell-off starts he will then step in and cut the rate.....at that moment he might have to cut 50 - 75 points instead of this talk about 25. He seems to be hoping that something will save the day.....well he better hurry up, because his fox hole is getting deeper.

While in the meantime.....I'm just waiting to shoot my rifle at the market..

And also, if the BOE decides to cut rates (there has been talk) once the cable goes up...it's coming right back down....and we thought we seen some crazy stuff last month..

Just my two pips....
  • #29,800
  • Sep 10, 2007 1:06pm Sep 10, 2007 1:06pm
what if 260 gone?
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