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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #1,401
  • Dec 12, 2006 10:36am Dec 12, 2006 10:36am
Quoting monarch
I also have 1 Lot Short (waiting) for the surge to 1.9720 which will be used for the small bounce down.
Hi monarch,

Thank you very much for sharing your knowledge. Could you clarify why you think the price will surge to 1.9720. If the 61.8% Fib is at 1.9698, wouldn't that be a strong resistance? What's making you think that it will break for another 22 pips?

Thanks.
  • #1,402
  • Dec 12, 2006 10:38am Dec 12, 2006 10:38am
I wouldn't say it is going down here, it is just doing some adjusting.

It hit this High hard and quick, and now it is trying to breath.

We are still on an upwards swing, so I will trade Long and Short during the expanding areas of small channels.

Even though I have 1 short entered, I still expect a rise up to 1.9743 area before making the final Wave "B" Completion.

Just watch and get a few pips during these small retracement areas.

Monarch
  • #1,403
  • Dec 12, 2006 10:44am Dec 12, 2006 10:44am
Quoting monarch
I wouldn't say it is going down here, it is just doing some adjusting.

It hit this High hard and quick, and now it is trying to breath.

We are still on an upwards swing, so I will trade Long and Short during the expanding areas of small channels.

Even though I have 1 short entered, I still expect a rise up to 1.9743 area before making the final Wave "B" Completion.

Just watch and get a few pips during these small retracement areas.

Monarch
Ok, got it so, what do u think the price for this downmove? Btw, whats ur indicator for the swing trades?

Thanks...
  • #1,404
  • Dec 12, 2006 11:01am Dec 12, 2006 11:01am
Quoting ikholod
Hi monarch,

Thank you very much for sharing your knowledge. Could you clarify why you think the price will surge to 1.9720. If the 61.8% Fib is at 1.9698, wouldn't that be a strong resistance? What's making you think that it will break for another 22 pips?

Thanks.
The Fibo is at 1.9698, but there is also a R3 Daily above that a 1.9720.

I am set with a Short at 1.9719 and another Short at 1.9739.

I cannot see a "stop on a dime turnaround here". There has been a lot of upwards trending for the past several weeks, and the GBP just wants to exhaust all of its power.

Therefore you see expansion above the breaking points.

It is my trading strategy to get in at different location, this allows me to be in if it finally stops breathing, and drops from there.

This will take larger Stops placed on the Lots i have already entered, "but if I do not enter into the race, I can never finish the race."

Be careful not to be a "point A to point B trader", we must every pip this market will give us.

Trade smart, but put in the back of your head, this baby is bound to go down.

Monarch
  • #1,405
  • Dec 12, 2006 11:02am Dec 12, 2006 11:02am
my trade plan for now:


i waiting for hit 1.9605 for entry LONG to 1.9698

if not hit 1.9605 i will make a order afters news.
  • #1,406
  • Dec 12, 2006 11:14am Dec 12, 2006 11:14am
Your waiting for this to drop back to 1.9605 for a Long?

Why not Short till then and you can make pips down?

But it is possible that this train left that station this morning, and heading for its next locaton!

Can you explain what your seeing, to help me out?

Thanks

Monarch
  • #1,407
  • Dec 12, 2006 11:25am Dec 12, 2006 11:25am
Looking at the 1 Hour Bar, it opened at 1.9652 then bounced down to 1.9635 low, and is making its way back up to 1.9652.

If this Candle closes above 1.9650 area, we will see a Nose Bar, giving us upwards direction.

Right now I have our channel top at 1.9668 and the bottom at 1.9635. This is a 33 pip channel which places the middle at 1.9652.

1. This should settle back at 1.9654 (50% Fibo) we will see a small channel today bouncing from 9650 to 9680.

Monarch
  • #1,408
  • Dec 12, 2006 11:33am Dec 12, 2006 11:33am
What type of strategy do you guys think should be followed during the upcoming US data? Do you think this will take the pair to 9800s?
  • #1,409
  • Dec 12, 2006 11:43am Dec 12, 2006 11:43am
After what I seen this morning there is a strong possiblility that the upcoming interest rate news could push this up to the 1.9743 area.

I do not expect it to jump us up that quickly, but by Wednesday evening Eastern Time, we should be pushing the top.

1.9800 is pretty far up for now - 150 pips, that would be one "Bad" news report.

I have a Short now, if it goes up, it would trigger 2 more entries for Shorts.

Monarch
  • #1,410
  • Dec 12, 2006 11:45am Dec 12, 2006 11:45am
I have a Short now, if it goes up, it would trigger 2 more entries for Shorts.

I may not have any shorts left after this!

What I meant was I have 2 Waiting Entry for Short position if the price climbs up!

Monarch
  • #1,411
  • Dec 12, 2006 11:49am Dec 12, 2006 11:49am
Quoting monarch
After what I seen this morning there is a strong possiblility that the upcoming interest rate news could push this up to the 1.9743 area.

Monarch
Monarch,

Interest rate unchanged is what's expected for today. If this is confirmed, do you then expect a up&down or down&up move?

I'm using YOU to learn and not even blush for doing so, OK?
  • #1,412
  • Dec 12, 2006 11:50am Dec 12, 2006 11:50am
Quoting monarch
I have a Short now, if it goes up, it would trigger 2 more entries for Shorts.

I may not have any shorts left after this!

What I meant was I have 2 Waiting Entry for Short position if the price climbs up!

Monarch
Why don't u go long for now if u think there is a STRONG POSSIBILITY to go up??
  • #1,413
  • Dec 12, 2006 11:52am Dec 12, 2006 11:52am
Quoting monarch
Your waiting for this to drop back to 1.9605 for a Long?
Why not Short till then and you can make pips down?
But it is possible that this train left that station this morning, and heading for its next locaton!
Can you explain what your seeing, to help me out?
Thanks
Monarch
Sure,

in this chart we can see 2 fibos lines in range 1.9615 <> 1.9600, and few pips later others fibo (50.0%).

sorry, img not uploaded.
  • #1,414
  • Dec 12, 2006 11:52am Dec 12, 2006 11:52am
Quoting monarch
by Wednesday evening Eastern Time, we should be pushing the top.
Based on what are you predicting the time? I can see how you set your targets, but how do you know how quickly we will get there?
  • #1,415
  • Dec 12, 2006 12:06pm Dec 12, 2006 12:06pm
It would be quite helpful if fixme1too was here and shared his ideas and view of the upcoming news and where he expected this pair to go. I hope he can hear us
  • #1,416
  • Dec 12, 2006 12:10pm Dec 12, 2006 12:10pm
Quoting cesarnc
Monarch,

Interest rate unchanged is what's expected for today. If this is confirmed, do you then expect a up&down or down&up move?

I'm using YOU to learn and not even blush for doing so, OK?
I still expect GBP to rise more, even with upcoming news. It may retrace a bit with news, but we are set in motion.

But I do have 1 entry for short now. If by chance it falls off, we are prepared.

Monarch
  • #1,417
  • Dec 12, 2006 12:11pm Dec 12, 2006 12:11pm
Hello all,


Good luck with where this pair is going to go. I have had no damn luck this morning and am down $100 im out!
trading on demo is not trading
  • #1,418
  • Dec 12, 2006 12:11pm Dec 12, 2006 12:11pm
Quoting monarch
I still expect GBP to rise more, even with upcoming news. It may retrace a bit with news, but we are set in motion.

But I do have 1 entry for short now. If by chance it falls off, we are prepared.

Monarch
Roger that
  • #1,419
  • Dec 12, 2006 12:18pm Dec 12, 2006 12:18pm
i went back long at 9655, can't buck my indicators, which in every time frame pointing up and elliotician software starting to lean toward this being wave 5.. can't ever tell till it happens.
  • #1,420
  • Dec 12, 2006 12:18pm Dec 12, 2006 12:18pm
Thanks monarch for posting your analysis and thoughts. I like your proactive approach to this market, emphasis on upcoming support/resistance and fibs.

Tom in rainy california today
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