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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #1,281
  • Dec 11, 2006 11:42am Dec 11, 2006 11:42am
Quoting monarch
Looking at the Fibo on the 4 Hour

Low was 11/17/06 at 1.8834
High was 12/1/06 at 1.9846
The 38.2% Fibo retrace is 1.9461
We hit this Fibo Yesterday and bounced up.

Now on the Retrace upward
High was 12/1/06 at 1.9846
Low was 12/10/06 at1.9464
The 38.2% Ribo retrace is 1.9608

50% is at 1.9652
61.8% is at 1.9697

This is the Target Fixme1too is looking at.

Monarch
why should it retrace in a retracement?
  • #1,282
  • Dec 11, 2006 11:50am Dec 11, 2006 11:50am
I don't make the rules, I am only observing the market.

It simply made the retracements I mentioned above.

You will see retracement in every time frame - on every currency pair - and within candle formations.

Monarch
  • #1,283
  • Dec 11, 2006 11:52am Dec 11, 2006 11:52am
hey guys, I am thinking of going short for 20 to30 pips profit? stop loss 50 pips!!

any views?
  • #1,284
  • Dec 11, 2006 11:53am Dec 11, 2006 11:53am
Quoting monarch
I don't make the rules, I am only observing the market.

It simply made the retracements I mentioned above.

You will see retracement in every time frame - on every currency pair - and within candle formations.

Monarch
Are you long again?
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #1,285
  • Dec 11, 2006 11:54am Dec 11, 2006 11:54am
yes but u mean that fixme1too looks at these "retracement" from above. but he dont look at them because he think at mid 9700 it will bounce to 1.90xx and that will be not a retracement from the downward move last week.
  • #1,286
  • Dec 11, 2006 11:55am Dec 11, 2006 11:55am
The High reached on 12/8/2006 was 1.9726
The Low reached on 12/102006 was 1.9464

The pip spread between the High and Low is 262 pips

Divide the 262 in half and you will get 131 pips.

Add the 131 pips to 1.9464 and you will find yourself at 1.9495

This is the middle of High and Low - We just topped out at 1.9593

1/2 way up from Fridays High.

We will hit the station, clean the windows, and see if we need a fill up - just run the tank to empty.

Monarch
  • #1,287
  • Dec 11, 2006 11:56am Dec 11, 2006 11:56am
I believe that fixme1too (and monarch) look at ALL time frames--from 5-minute charts to monthly charts. As monarch mentioned, retracements occur on ALL time frames, so don't get locked in to just viewing one chart.
  • #1,288
  • Dec 11, 2006 11:59am Dec 11, 2006 11:59am
Look at that, cable seem wanting to break 9600 level. Perhaps all the guess work is out, instead of guessing which way it goes.. just follow price movement. personally I got in the S earlier and got stopped out now I'm L and hopefully recover from the prior loss.
  • #1,289
  • Dec 11, 2006 11:59am Dec 11, 2006 11:59am
Friday 12/8 High was 1.9726
Sunday 12/10 Low was 1.9464

The Fibo's are as follows

38.2% - 1.9566 (passed this finally)
50% - 1.9596 (pushing the envelope now)
61.8% - 1.9627 (just a hop, skip, and jump away)

Monarch
  • #1,290
  • Dec 11, 2006 12:03pm Dec 11, 2006 12:03pm
Quoting monarch

38.2% - 1.9566 (passed this finally)
Monarch
coming back to this point.
  • #1,291
  • Dec 11, 2006 12:08pm Dec 11, 2006 12:08pm
Baby come back - great song!

I am wanting the price to pull back on the 4 Hour to close below 1.9555-60 area.

That would help dictate if I need to get a Nose Job!!
(Nose would be sticking out pretty far here on the 4 Hour Pin)

That is for you cesarnc!
  • #1,292
  • Dec 11, 2006 12:28pm Dec 11, 2006 12:28pm
Quoting monarch
That is for you cesarnc!
Thanks buddy.
  • #1,293
  • Dec 11, 2006 12:32pm Dec 11, 2006 12:32pm
I ran a Pitchfork on the upward trend Weekly chart from 12/2/05 to the high 12/1/06 and shot the low at 6/30/06.

The middle trend line is set at 1.9553

We opened this weeks candle at 1.9530 which is just below the middle trend line.

We are straddling the line here with the open of the Weekly candle below and the Price now just above the Mid trend line.

The bottom trend line can be obtained by the week of 1/5/07.

We will see some fluctuation with daily and hourlies this week.
(great time to make pips on the swings kiddies)

I am looking for GBP/USD to top out between the 1.9630 to 1.9670 area.

It is possible Fixme1too that 1.9700 could be in range, but 1.9697 would be the 61.8% Fibo upwards retracement.

Monarch
  • #1,294
  • Dec 11, 2006 12:38pm Dec 11, 2006 12:38pm
Yes you are right. Normally after an A wave at 38% where do you go 78% right. This is what is happening now. Just on a bigger scale. we have completed A WAVE the BIG A WAVE now we must complete a BIG B wave and down we go on the BIG C wave. Tell me what you get on 78% of A wave and thats where we should go. Thats why 9531 was so very important to me.



Quoting monarch
I ran a Pitchfork on the upward trend Weekly chart from 12/2/05 to the high 12/1/06 and shot the low at 6/30/06.

The middle trend line is set at 1.9553

We opened this weeks candle at 1.9530 which is just below the middle trend line.

We are straddling the line here with the open of the Weekly candle below and the Price now just above the Mid trend line.

The bottom trend line can be obtained by the week of 1/5/07.

We will see some fluctuation with daily and hourlies this week.
(great time to make pips on the swings kiddies)

I am looking for GBP/USD to top out between the 1.9630 to 1.9670 area.

It is possible Fixme1too that 1.9700 could be in range, but 1.9697 would be the 61.8% Fibo upwards retracement.

Monarch
  • #1,295
  • Dec 11, 2006 12:53pm Dec 11, 2006 12:53pm
The 78% Fibo would be 1.9743.

Thanks for the info, it could take most of the week to hit this area.

Monarch
  • #1,296
  • Dec 11, 2006 1:04pm Dec 11, 2006 1:04pm
Quoting monarch
We will see some fluctuation with daily and hourlies this week.
(great time to make pips on the swings kiddies)
True. After a big move there is always a period of consolidation where the market is just range bound which in itself offers good profit potential. However, this being the end of the year look for some major profit taking from those who built up EUR and GBP longs over the year. If USD is going to move lower it will probably be at the start of next year.
  • #1,297
  • Dec 11, 2006 2:04pm Dec 11, 2006 2:04pm
thats not much more than the 9700 mark. What do you think about tp at the 9700 area and just wait and watch for the possible top then get in for the down move.



Quoting monarch
The 78% Fibo would be 1.9743.

Thanks for the info, it could take most of the week to hit this area.

Monarch
  • #1,298
  • Edited 2:44pm Dec 11, 2006 2:12pm | Edited 2:44pm
Quoting fixme1too
Normally after an A wave at 38% where do you go 78% right. This is what is happening now. Just on a bigger scale. we have completed A WAVE the BIG A WAVE now we must complete a BIG B wave and down we go on the BIG C wave. Tell me what you get on 78% of A wave and thats where we should go. Thats why 9531 was so very important to me.
fixme1too,
Are you saying that cable will go to 1.9700's?
  • #1,299
  • Dec 11, 2006 3:30pm Dec 11, 2006 3:30pm
Quoting fixme1too
thats not much more than the 9700 mark. What do you think about tp at the 9700 area and just wait and watch for the possible top then get in for the down move.
I think 1.9700 being right at the 61.8%% Fibo is the best point of actually entering a Short.

If we expect a max Fibo of 78% at 1.9743 we may miss our entry.

I would rather enter sooner with enough spread on my Stop, than miss the entry all together waiting at the top.

My Trade Waiting - Short at 1.9698 for the ride down on Wave "C".

Monarch
  • #1,300
  • Dec 11, 2006 3:37pm Dec 11, 2006 3:37pm
I have a Entry Waiting at the 1.9698 - Stop at 1.9750 - Target 1.9340

I will also have a Second Entry Waiting Short at 1.9730 for the extended area above the 61.8% area. This will allow me to make an additional 32 pips above my initial Entry of 1.9698, and possibly hit the maximum in this retracement. I

If it does not hit it will be okay with me, I will be set already for the Wave "C" Down.

Monarch
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