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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #875,061
  • Jun 10, 5:39pm (24 hr ago) Jun 10, 5:39pm (24 hr ago)
Shoet GU 3360. TP 3250.
  • #875,062
  • Edited 7:27pm Jun 10, 5:51pm (24 hr ago) | Edited 7:27pm
Given the realised volatility, P(close>open) is 31% (N=132)
│ P(new high) 53% (N=59)
│ P(new low) 72% (N=71)
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│ Seasonal (Jun): base-rate P(close>open) 60% (N=25)
│ Most likely path: chop near the mth open, with real risk of probing a new mth low first


Post from May 17:
Quoting W0lfram
back to 1.32 in Q2? At current state I would say Q2 high is established
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~1.29 is on my radar till the year's end
Air force
  • #875,063
  • Jun 10, 6:11pm (23 hr ago) Jun 10, 6:11pm (23 hr ago)
Structure
Price recovered from the 1.3305–1.3316 area and built higher lows, but the rally failed around 1.3406–1.3417. After that rejection, price broke under the rising trendline and is now trading around 1.3352. That means the previous bullish recovery is weakening.
Pattern and candlestick read
This looks like a rising wedge / ascending trendline breakdown. Price was climbing slowly along the white trendline, but buyers failed to make a clean new high. Then sellers broke the trendline with strong bearish candles. That usually means the market can continue lower, especially if the broken trendline turns into resistance on a retest.
The sell signal around 1.3378 already hit TP1, so I would not chase the low aggressively. The cleaner setup is waiting for a retest.
Key levels
Resistance:
1.3361–1.3372
1.3383–1.3394
1.3406 stronger resistance
Support:
1.3350 current area
1.3338
1.3327
1.3316–1.3305
Best trade plan
Preferred short setup:
Entry: 1.3361–1.3372 retest with bearish rejection
Stop loss: 1.3396
TP1: 1.3338
TP2: 1.3327
TP3: 1.3316–1.3305
Breakdown setup:
If H1 closes below 1.3350, wait for a retest of 1.3350–1.3361 from underneath.
Targets: 1.3338, then 1.3327, then 1.3316.
Invalidation
The bearish setup weakens if H1 reclaims 1.3383–1.3394.
It becomes invalid if price gets back above 1.3406, because that would put price back above the broken structure.
ForexFactory style paragraph
GBPUSD H1 is showing a rising trendline breakdown after failing to continue above the 1.3406–1.3417 area. Price broke below the recovery trendline with bearish candles, shifting the short-term structure from bullish continuation to bearish correction. I prefer selling a retest into 1.3361–1.3372 with bearish rejection, targeting 1.3338, 1.3327, and 1.3316–1.3305. A sustained reclaim above 1.3383 would weaken the bearish setup, while a move back above 1.3406 would invalidate the trendline-break idea.
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  • #875,064
  • Jun 10, 6:29pm (23 hr ago) Jun 10, 6:29pm (23 hr ago)
Quoting Sandy1994
Structure Price recovered from the 1.3305–1.3316 area and built higher lows, but the rally failed around 1.3406–1.3417. After that rejection, price broke under the rising trendline and is now trading around 1.3352. That means the previous bullish recovery is weakening. Pattern and candlestick read This looks like a rising wedge / ascending trendline breakdown. Price was climbing slowly along the white trendline, but buyers failed to make a clean new high. Then sellers broke the trendline with strong bearish candles. That usually means the market...
Let's delegate market analysis to the probabilistic text-predictor that thinks the letter 'r' occurs two times in "strawberry"
Lazy bots.
Air force
  • #875,065
  • Jun 10, 8:10pm (21 hr ago) Jun 10, 8:10pm (21 hr ago)
Quoting Yngwie
{quote} Sold again 1.3421
hit my trailing SL for 70p
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #875,066
  • Jun 10, 9:11pm (20 hr ago) Jun 10, 9:11pm (20 hr ago)
Sold 1.3390
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #875,067
  • Jun 10, 11:57pm (18 hr ago) Jun 10, 11:57pm (18 hr ago)
Quoting sharingan9
GU short in play. looking for it to hit midpoint daily betwen daily r1 and middle pivot and lower
Clockwork. Same setup as GBPNZD earlier but for shorts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #875,068
  • Jun 11, 2:22am (15 hr ago) Jun 11, 2:22am (15 hr ago)
Price playing around.. shorts must be the hardest way to make money.

but it will go down, 1.3327 will hit today
  • #875,069
  • Jun 11, 4:02am (14 hr ago) Jun 11, 4:02am (14 hr ago)
Quoting Whale
Price playing around.. shorts must be the hardest way to make money. but it will go down, 1.3327 will hit today
Both EU and GU have been stubborn.
  • #875,070
  • Jun 11, 4:03am (13 hr ago) Jun 11, 4:03am (13 hr ago)
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Both EU and GU have been stubborn.
price breakout is imminent. This is a typical approach of slow motion before final collapse when traders are not expecting.
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #875,071
  • Jun 11, 4:11am (13 hr ago) Jun 11, 4:11am (13 hr ago)
Quoting Georginson
{quote} price breakout is imminent. This is a typical approach of slow motion before final collapse when traders are not expecting.
Today is ECB and I don't know how that's going to pan out. Looking at my volumes to the left I see that EU has volume supports around 1500 area and only something fundamental can smash it. If Lagarde as much as suggests further rate hikes price will shoot up hard. Very hard. And that might drag GU with it. But if not bears will smile to the bank. I closed my EU short I profit but closed my GU short in a loss and made most of it back in gold. I think I will stay away except I see extremes.
  • #875,072
  • Jun 11, 4:25am (13 hr ago) Jun 11, 4:25am (13 hr ago)
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Today is ECB and I don't know how that's going to pan out. Looking at my volumes to the left I see that EU has volume supports around 1500 area and only something fundamental can smash it. If Lagarde as much as suggests further rate hikes price will shoot up hard. Very hard. And that might drag GU with it. But if not bears will smile to the bank. I closed my EU short I profit but closed my GU short in a loss and made most of it back in gold. I think I will stay away except I see extremes.
Yes i agree... . but USD will keep going up until the War with be Iran is over ...
  • #875,073
  • Jun 11, 4:34am (13 hr ago) Jun 11, 4:34am (13 hr ago)
Gbpusd trend remains short, however support at 1.33542
  • #875,074
  • Jun 11, 6:05am (11 hr ago) Jun 11, 6:05am (11 hr ago)
DXY_H4. Finally some movement on GU and EU.
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  • #875,075
  • Jun 11, 7:36am (10 hr ago) Jun 11, 7:36am (10 hr ago)
Taking 50p on EU and 65p on GU shorts. Took a while, but the bears delivered.
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  • #875,076
  • Jun 11, 7:39am (10 hr ago) Jun 11, 7:39am (10 hr ago)
Grab what you can and run, because Trump is at it again.

Trump: The US will be hitting Iran very hard tonight
The US president has made the announcement on the Truth Social media platform. “At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela,” he said.

Trump also repeated his claim that the capabilities of the Iranian armed forces have been destroyed.
  • #875,077
  • Jun 11, 7:53am (10 hr ago) Jun 11, 7:53am (10 hr ago)
The more orange speaks, the more EU and GU will just pivot back to 1.1550 and 1.3380
  • #875,078
  • Jun 11, 8:07am (9 hr ago) Jun 11, 8:07am (9 hr ago)
Quoting Yngwie
Sold 1.3390
Hit triling SL for 45p
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #875,079
  • Jun 11, 8:13am (9 hr ago) Jun 11, 8:13am (9 hr ago)
Quoting Guy1969
The more orange speaks, the more EU and GU will just pivot back to 1.1550 and 1.3380
I'm glad I closed my trades on EU and GU. Useless pairs, them both. When it moves it will be a single candle covering the entire range leaving trades with gap areas to get on the "trend". Lagarde and her ECB have not moved alright little. I miss the days of Draghi and his red tie
  • #875,080
  • Jun 11, 8:16am (9 hr ago) Jun 11, 8:16am (9 hr ago)
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} I'm glad I closed my trades on EU and GU. Useless pairs, them both. When it moves it will be a single candle covering the entire range leaving trades with gap areas to get on the "trend". Lagarde and her ECB have not moved alright little. I miss the days of Draghi and his red tie
We might see more of the same heading into next week with the FED decision, heaven forbid...
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