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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #28,421
  • Sep 1, 2007 4:49pm Sep 1, 2007 4:49pm
Quoting cesarnc
I'm thinking about a bold trade here. Not sure if I'll take it or chicken out on it.....

Premise1: "There is not such thing as 'double false breakout'"
Premise2: "If 2.0210 is traded from here, 2.0450 will be traded within days without returning to 0250 first"

The Moon or Swamp Trade
Buy Stop 2.0210 (again - according to Premise 1)
Target: 2.0450 Initial Stop: 2.0170 (for -40) -> 1:6 initial risk reward
At 0250, SL @ 2.0210 (B/E) - Denial of premise 1
At 0350, SL @ 2.0250 (+40pips) - Denial of premise 2

Reward: Double the account at 0450 - lot size accordingly
Major Risk: 16% (Initial Stop)
If SL @ 0250 is achived, the trade is locked in 16% profit, balance the initial risk. If hit, the trade is off.

Premise 2 is, as it says, a premise. A number, a call, a figure. Please no EWs and NASA Techis trying to prove me otherwise. Can be bad, can be good. Can be 0650 as well :

Doubts so far:
- Lifting the SL above 0250 or not. SL placement here has a major role.
- Take partials or not at first toppish (estimated price?), and reenter this portion at some level (x% fib?) - if well done, will boost the proft above 100%. Otherwise, can kill the whole damn trade. And won't look so simple. I don't like complex stuff.

You can reduce the risk with lot size. But then you will reduce the reward.
You can reduce the initial risk to zero if you know Mr. Johnnie Waker.

Who's in?

http://site.elitepokerchips.com/aces_poker_chips.gif

I believe we are either shooting to the sky or falling like a rock within this next month or so......

What is your target above 0450??????

I like your theory on the Moon or Swamp trade...question....wouldn't you want a break of 0240/50 to confirm uptrend??????

I understand to double @ 0450 but are you shooting for 0650 as a target????

At 0450, I would move my stop loss to 0350 and the double my lot size (why leave pips on the table??????)

With the market so shaky right now and so many daily swings of 100 pips or more...what about after 0300 to build up small positions????? This way if it drops like a rock you wouldn't lose much....and could prepare for a nice profits on the way down.....

My thinking here is that Bernanke won't hit the "cut interest rate button" until probably around the 9650 or lower area....and if 9650 area goes that could be another 200 plus pips or more down until it reaches a "very" strong support (about 9200 area).

Based off of what happen in early March and July/August.....it could only take about 2-3 days this time to get to that figure...


Just my thoughts.....
  • #28,422
  • Sep 1, 2007 5:22pm Sep 1, 2007 5:22pm
On Monday I'm a buyer and my SL @ 2.0101 and I will wait for the break of 2.0320 which will open the door for more upside moves and I'll try to place more long orders at good prices if possible, but on the otherside the break of 2.0101 on Monday will delay the upside move, and if 2.0018 is seen and broken on Monday or at least Tuesday, so I'll go short blindly till the end of the week
  • #28,423
  • Sep 1, 2007 5:31pm Sep 1, 2007 5:31pm
Quoting pino2
On Monday I'm a buyer and my SL @ 2.0101 and I will wait for the break of 2.0320 which will open the door for more upside moves and I'll try to place more long orders at good prices if possible, but on the otherside the break of 2.0101 on Monday will delay the upside move, and if 2.0018 is seen and broken on Monday or at least Tuesday, so I'll go short blindly till the end of the week
Would a break of 0385 be more like it?????? Seems like the bulls got caught in the area around the beginning of August......

From there it looks like a clean shot to 0650.....
  • #28,424
  • Sep 1, 2007 5:45pm Sep 1, 2007 5:45pm
Quoting Turtle
Would a break of 0385 be more like it?????? Seems like the bulls got caught in the area around the beginning of August......

From there it looks like a clean shot to 0650.....
My views are only for this week, so if 2.0320 is seen and broken on Monday or at least Tuesday and and at the same time 2.0144 is not seen or touched so this is 99.99% safe to blindly go long till the end of the week
Monday is usually the key of the week, it has been 2 weeks Mondays was unclear, specially last week (The zigzag week), so I hope everything could be clear for me on the coming Monday, my loss last week was due to that Monday was unclear for me, and instead of staying apart till I see a clear view, I kept on buying and selling without sticking to my strategy in a very stupid way
  • #28,425
  • Sep 1, 2007 5:48pm Sep 1, 2007 5:48pm
Quoting Turtle
Would a break of 0385 be more like it?????? Seems like the bulls got caught in the area around the beginning of August......

From there it looks like a clean shot to 0650.....
Hi Turtle

What is your bias on this pair at the mo? Just interested......

I have hit a wall at the moment, so am sitting on the sidelines on my live trades as I am still very much learning...

Angie
  • #28,426
  • Sep 1, 2007 5:48pm Sep 1, 2007 5:48pm
Quoting pino2
My views are only for this week, so if 2.0320 is seen and broken on Monday or at least Tuesday and and at the same time 2.0144 is not seen or touched so this is 99.99% safe to blindly go long till the end of the week
Monday is usually the key of the week, it has been 2 weeks Mondays was unclear, specially last week (The zigzag week), so I hope everything could be clear for me on the coming Monday, my loss last week was due to that Monday was unclear for me, and instead of staying apart till I see a clear view, I kept on buying and selling without sticking to my strategy in a very stupid way
I see......would you go blindly for the whole week or until NFP????

Do you think because of the US holiday on Monday you still might get unclear signals????
  • #28,427
  • Edited Sep 2, 2007 12:21am Sep 1, 2007 5:54pm | Edited Sep 2, 2007 12:21am
Quoting angiegiles00
Hi Turtle

What is your bias on this pair at the mo? Just interested......

I have hit a wall at the moment, so am sitting on the sidelines on my live trades as I am still very much learning...

Angie
Hey Angie....I guess that is what is great about the weekend, you get to take a moment and plan for the week....I'm looking long come the London open on Monday due to US holiday......

Once Tuesday's NY opening...I might sit in the sidelines since alot of folks will be coming back from vacation and I want them to disgest what all happen last week...

Thursday is interest rate day for cable and euro....more interested to see what Trichet will do as far as hike or stay put. Then Friday is NFP......

So until at least Tuesday...I'm looking long...after that I will want to see more clear signals and might just scalp.....
  • #28,428
  • Sep 1, 2007 6:05pm Sep 1, 2007 6:05pm
Quoting Turtle
Hey Angie....I guess that is what is great about the weekend, you get to time a moment and plan for the week....I'm looking long come the London open on Monday due to US holiday......

Once Tuesday's NY opening...I might sit in the sidelines since alot of folks will be coming back from vacation and I want them to disgest what all happen last week...

Thursday is interest rate day for cable and euro....more interested to see what Trichet will do as far as hike or stay put. Then Friday is NFP......

So until at least Tuesday...I'm looking long...after that I will want to see more clear signals and might just scalp.....
Thanks Turtle........

Interesting times ahead! I am definitely going to wait until I see clearer signals. In the meantime I am going to do my analysis and do some demo trades until I get the signals I am happy to trade.

Forgot about the US holiday on Monday, have a good holiday..
  • #28,429
  • Sep 1, 2007 6:22pm Sep 1, 2007 6:22pm
Quoting Turtle
I see......would you go blindly for the whole week or until NFP????

Do you think because of the US holiday on Monday you still might get unclear signals????
If 2.0320 is seen and broken on Monday or at least Tuesday, so this means an uptrend, therefore whatever the figures of the NFP on Friday, the uptrend will continue, IMO, my cocerns are that there is a US holiday on Monday which might bring an unclear view for me, and also the interest rate statement on Thursday
  • #28,430
  • Sep 1, 2007 6:33pm Sep 1, 2007 6:33pm
I'm staying out until the top forms, because I don't share your sentiment I'm afraid. I have sold GJ near the last top and same with EURUSD, if you look at the rejections of the highs there seems to be no way anybody big would buy near those areas..very strong rejection. Also I am of the opinion that the dollar is getting stronger (see COT) and the Yen stronger still, so I will not venture to buy at these levels. Aside from the housing nonsense, USA is feeling pretty good, I think. Anyway good luck!


Quoting cesarnc
I'm thinking about a bold trade here. Not sure if I'll take it or chicken out on it.....

Premise1: "There is not such thing as 'double false breakout'"
Premise2: "If 2.0210 is traded from here, 2.0450 will be traded within days without returning to 0250 first"

The Moon or Swamp Trade
Buy Stop 2.0210 (again - according to Premise 1)
Target: 2.0450 Initial Stop: 2.0170 (for -40) -> 1:6 initial risk reward
At 0250, SL @ 2.0210 (B/E) - Denial of premise 1
At 0350, SL @ 2.0250 (+40pips) - Denial of premise 2

Reward: Double the account at 0450 - lot size accordingly
Major Risk: 16% (Initial Stop)
If SL @ 0250 is achived, the trade is locked in 16% profit, balance the initial risk. If hit, the trade is off.

Premise 2 is, as it says, a premise. A number, a call, a figure. Please no EWs and NASA Techis trying to prove me otherwise. Can be bad, can be good. Can be 0650 as well :

Doubts so far:
- Lifting the SL above 0250 or not. SL placement here has a major role.
- Take partials or not at first toppish (estimated price?), and reenter this portion at some level (x% fib?) - if well done, will boost the proft above 100%. Otherwise, can kill the whole damn trade. And won't look so simple. I don't like complex stuff.

You can reduce the risk with lot size. But then you will reduce the reward.
You can reduce the initial risk to zero if you know Mr. Johnnie Waker.

Who's in?
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #28,431
  • Sep 1, 2007 6:51pm Sep 1, 2007 6:51pm
Quick bullets

- targeting too much above 0450 deteriorates the r:r heavily without considering a swing. maybe leave some small portion for remaining strength

- Yes, holiday on Monday takes the NYSE trouble-factor off the table. Considering Asia and Europe are going along with Friday's NYSE, the downside can be considered somewhat contained - at least to achive SL @ B/E

- It's NOT a Buy@ market. It is buy stop 0210 with the premise that cable will not fail the breakout again - double false breakout? Never heard about it.

- If cable shoots down on Monday, trade won't be triggered

- Fat profit at 0450 would give time to rethink about further upside.

- This is not a "would you think it will happen" kind of situation. It is "it can happen, I'll give it a shot"

- 16% loss won't kill anybody. 100% profit may kill the weak hearts, but that's another problem each one has to deal with.

- chickens better off staying on the corn and crumbs.

Back to beer
  • #28,432
  • Sep 1, 2007 7:20pm Sep 1, 2007 7:20pm
what about sell @ 260 and trailing the SL???
  • #28,433
  • Sep 1, 2007 7:35pm Sep 1, 2007 7:35pm
Quoting benssol
what about sell @ 260 and trailing the SL???
And you think there won't be a massive amount of traders here shorting in the middle of a breakout? That's a classic !!!!
  • #28,434
  • Sep 1, 2007 7:52pm Sep 1, 2007 7:52pm
Agreed. Few comments though: "false breakouts" happen all the time with multiple breaks of a high, not just 2, but it almost never happens when the price action is clear (non choppy) and it depends exactly what kind of price action you believe to be a "breakout". I've learned to only trust closed candles and never base enything on less than 2 hourly candles of stable price movement (not too fast, not too timid, just calm smooth movement). This is why I manually open and close all trades, otherwise darkstar et al will be feasting on my stops! The stars can't allow that to happen can they? The heavens would object, they surely would.

Also, when H4 or daily candles close with huge spikes/shooting stars/hammers/whtever the hell you want to call them, it is quite safe to go with the direction of the rejection. This hasn't happened yet on cable, but check the euro. Now if your stop doesn't get triggered and cable follows euro (and indeed GJ which has been LEADING the majors in the past weeks) will you short? Or is there something happening on the fundies I should be ware of?

Cheers and good luck.


Quoting cesarnc
Quick bullets

- targeting too much above 0450 deteriorates the r:r heavily without considering a swing. maybe leave some small portion for remaining strength

- Yes, holiday on Monday takes the NYSE trouble-factor off the table. Considering Asia and Europe are going along with Friday's NYSE, the downside can be considered somewhat contained - at least to achive SL @ B/E

- It's NOT a Buy@ market. It is buy stop 0210 with the premise that cable will not fail the breakout again - double false breakout? Never heard about it.

- If cable shoots down on Monday, trade won't be triggered

- Fat profit at 0450 would give time to rethink about further upside.

- This is not a "would you think it will happen" kind of situation. It is "it can happen, I'll give it a shot"

- 16% loss won't kill anybody. 100% profit may kill the weak hearts, but that's another problem each one has to deal with.

- chickens better off staying on the corn and crumbs.

Back to beer
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #28,435
  • Edited Sep 2, 2007 12:26am Sep 1, 2007 11:38pm | Edited Sep 2, 2007 12:26am
Quoting cesarnc
Quick bullets

- targeting too much above 0450 deteriorates the r:r heavily without considering a swing. maybe leave some small portion for remaining strength

- Yes, holiday on Monday takes the NYSE trouble-factor off the table. Considering Asia and Europe are going along with Friday's NYSE, the downside can be considered somewhat contained - at least to achive SL @ B/E

- It's NOT a Buy@ market. It is buy stop 0210 with the premise that cable will not fail the breakout again - double false breakout? Never heard about it.

- If cable shoots down on Monday, trade won't be triggered

- Fat profit at 0450 would give time to rethink about further upside.

- This is not a "would you think it will happen" kind of situation. It is "it can happen, I'll give it a shot"

- 16% loss won't kill anybody. 100% profit may kill the weak hearts, but that's another problem each one has to deal with.

- chickens better off staying on the corn and crumbs.

Back to beer

I see...you are going up to the batter's box to possibly hit a homerun..and if you get fooled on a curve ball...so what...you were looking for a fastball anyway.

And you think you see one coming.......this is a chance for you to "GO DEEP"..................

Hey, go all in.....you know when the trade isn't working and will let it hit the S/L button. And then you can at least say...you took a stab at it......:



This is going to be another fun week........
  • #28,436
  • Sep 2, 2007 12:28am Sep 2, 2007 12:28am
DAMM PINO.......

I thougt I would just take a peek.........doing your homework also....

Building up a battle plan for the week......
  • #28,437
  • Edited 4:51am Sep 2, 2007 4:26am | Edited 4:51am
Quoting Turtle
Would a break of 0385 be more like it?????? Seems like the bulls got caught in the area around the beginning of August......

From there it looks like a clean shot to 0650.....
We should be looking for good entry to long for the big shoot above 660....i will exercise option in 2 weeks time (when exactly i dont know),...ill take a loss in front, tp 24-28 october...i just dont know when will it be the lowest, to gain the biggest... i think pinos 2.0120 seems a price action at this point of time, it matches with the never teory, so i might blindly folow his advise......and i got another teory which confirms this scenario, my broker is gona lower the margin on thuesday for the second time by 2,...i hate him doing that, but that should indicates, that they wont a lower volatility (squezzing scalpers greed), and that means only one thing,...the major bull is coming in town, it also match with technical indicators like weekly stohastic becoming crossed...etc....but once what do we know...lets just folow the pino.
its just money
  • #28,438
  • Sep 2, 2007 7:04am Sep 2, 2007 7:04am
Quote
Just asking for your opinion only..

Do you think GU has a higher chance to rise or fall??

I read in the news segment a great H&S pattern is forming right now but at the same time, GU Up Channel has not been broken since last year..


My bias this coming week i.e. from tomorrow is SHORT, by now you guys know I don't care if its a holiday in US or UK or whatever blah blah Bush or Bernanke have to say, BUT yes, I won't be staking clusters like I do since its first week of this month, I'll play small and try to make some money and then risk that money for rest of the month. My long term trend is LONG and short term for now SHORT.

Losses or profits whatever, I shall share with you people on daily basis. I believe its nothing to do with news, its al about liquid, but yes, NEWS can be used as a trigger by people who run Forex.

Until now I have shared charts with cluster of positions in profits with you people, I'll see if I can share something new this week(its about strategy, not profits or loss)
Hello World!
  • #28,439
  • Sep 2, 2007 7:19am Sep 2, 2007 7:19am
it is summer, so i guess il put on my shorts.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #28,440
  • Sep 2, 2007 7:36am Sep 2, 2007 7:36am
Quoting Plutonite
Agreed. Few comments though: "false breakouts" happen all the time with multiple breaks of a high, not just 2, but it almost never happens when the price action is clear (non choppy) and it depends exactly what kind of price action you believe to be a "breakout". I've learned to only trust closed candles and never base enything on less than 2 hourly candles of stable price movement (not too fast, not too timid, just calm smooth movement). This is why I manually open and close all trades, otherwise darkstar et al will be feasting on my stops! The stars can't allow that to happen can they? The heavens would object, they surely would.
I agree with you. But if my premises are good, this trade has a 1:6 risk reward and I'll go in such a size to lose 16% or double the account.

If I loose 16% it will be fast, so no much time for misery here. I'll take the next trade

If I'm partially right, this Sl will reach B/E fast. So the trade will be already a zero risk. And if 0450 is not a good call, I will get out fo the trade with 16% profit, which is not that bad.

False breaks happen a lot, but I never saw one false break like Friday's. There was a lot of momentum push upwards. The problem was that Treasurys started moving and dollar was push up when NY kicked in.

What I mean is, the breakout was killed by another factor on the move. And this factor will be off the table on Monday. If the broadly called armaggedon selloff in NY will take place in September, I hope my SL to be locking 16% profit already, by Tuesday . And yet in this situation I'll be locking 5x my usual target profit.

The main question is whether or not cable will trade 0210 and then will get back to 0170. I consider that possibility as existent but not prevailing (otherwise I would short at 0210 instead, right)?

0450 is a line in the sand here. It will be the market who's gonna tell me how much I'll profit out of it.

And on the question about if I think it will go up or down. There is no such thing. We have to have a plan in case it goes up or down. This is my strategy if it goes up. If it goes down, I'm a scalper waiting for a bottom to be put and another r:r for longs like this emerge.
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