USD/CHF

The USD/CHF pair failed to break through and consolidate below the 0.7776 support level. Following its false breakout and upward rebound, the first target for buying could be the 0.7841 resistance level.

CPI probability:

Bullish (UP)> 3.7% (Above consensus)Dollar strengthens on expectations of "higher for longer" Fed rates.~60%

Bearish (DOWN)< 3.5% (Below consensus)Dollar weakens with a potential break of technical support levels.~25%

Neutral3.6% - 3.7% (In line)Initial volatility followed by a return to pre-data technical trends.~15%

It s the actual POC -
got an alert on .7857

PPI probability:

1. Hotter-than-Expected (> +0.5% MoM) Probability: ~55% Direction: Sharply Bullish
2. In-Line with Consensus (= +0.5% MoM) Probability: ~35% Direction: Neutral to Slightly Bullish (Consolidation at Highs)
3. Cooler-than-Expected (< +0.5% MoM) Probability: ~10% Direction: Sharply Bearish

$DXY now testing resistance here

a DXY move soon maybe

US10Y and the DXY after US economic data released

You were spot on!

Waiting to see if price breaks back into resistance or continues uptrend with a bounce. But will reserve play for next week.

The USDCHF pair shows an ascending channel within a range on the H4 timeframe, bordered by resistance at 0.7923 and support at 0.7775. However, a downward rebound from the upper boundaries of the range and ascending channel occurred earlier. The downward movement may continue to the lower boundary of this ascending channel.

This post shows a zoomed-out overview of USD/CHF for a broad understanding of it's directional outlook.

USDCHF is in bearish trend since inception. The down-move had started to look extended since June 2025 when we zoom-out and look, it in daily time frame. A reversal of trend is more reasonable to expect since the structure of DXY seems promising for the level of 125+ in broader time frame (consider my published idea on DXY, link attached). Surge in DXY will fuel the rally of USD.CHF, USD being base currency.

Structurally, looking from the pure technical perspective, bearish trendline seems to be at the brink of collapse, because of the HH & HL structure supported by bullish trendline, which may lead price to retest the major resistance level of 0.8042 as marked (the last hinderance), once taken out the path to further up-side will open.

For Educational Purposes only, Not an Investment Advice.

Any new perspective you want to add, Please feel free to mention below in the comment.

Regards CrazyTrades247.

Beautiful.

That's a Symmetrical Triangle breakout + Potential Ascending Triangle + Head & Shoulders. Just completed a Double bottom DB price continuation target on the H4. Then i have my double pattern combo - DBW + See Saw for a longer term uptrend on the W1 chart (eventually it plays out). Quite a lot of bullish patterns playing out on this pair.

For me - Buy the dips!

D1

Probabilities of ECB hike effect

1. Dovish Hike / Priced In (60%): Center of the curve. The 25 bps rate hike is fully expected. If Lagarde is cautious about future steps, it triggers a "sell the fact" reaction on the Euro.
2. Hawkish Hike / Aggressive (30%): Right tail (+1 Standard Deviation). The ECB signals more hikes ahead due to sticky inflation. This pushes EUR/USD up and USD/CHF down.
3. Geopolitical Shock / Risk-Off (10%): Left tail (Tail Risk). External risk dominates. Capital flows directly into the Swiss Franc as the ultimate safe haven, causing both currency pairs to drop.